high risk Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 NAM surface wind gust potential at 6z Monday. Rockin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, high risk said: NAM surface wind gust potential at 6z Monday. Rockin' Is that % or mph? eta: or both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Is that % or mph? eta: or both knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 The front has really slowed down in the guidance since earlier today. NAM and GFS previously had the front going through very early with temps into the 40s here by early afternoon; both models tonight don't even have the front making it to the Bay by 18z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 24 minutes ago, high risk said: The front has really slowed down in the guidance since earlier today. NAM and GFS previously had the front going through very early with temps into the 40s here by early afternoon; both models tonight don't even have the front making it to the Bay by 18z Sunday. surprise, surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Dont remember the last time I was up at 3am...lol...fun Halloween party though. Euro track over Philly again. Bigger precip hit through the corridor and not as much west of town. Probably noise. Plenty of wind. Back to back euro runs with little variance and gfs shifting west and stronger every run. This is a legit storm. The last time we got hit so close with a big coastal storm like this is prob the blizzard of 16. This one will have solid impacts felt for 500 miles of coast though. Tropical storm type of damage seems pretty likely too on the NE side of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, Rjay said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Strongest gusts per Euro around 1am Monday. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/gusts-3h-mph/20171030-0600z.html Pretty decent mean winds as well. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/windspeed-streamlines/20171030-0600z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Catoctins look fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Looks like all the guidance has us with gusts at least in the 40s. The NAM Nest really tries to hit us hard with precip on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Looks like all the guidance has us with gusts at least in the 40s. The NAM Nest really tries to hit us hard with precip on the backside. And the NAM Nest has us experiencing 40 kt+ gusts for 6-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Hmmm... from the updated morning LWX HWO: A severe thunderstorm with damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado is possible very late tonight towards dawn on Sunday for southern Maryland and the adjacent tidal Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m in a dressing room stall at the mall checking the Euro. Don’t tell my gf. Who has an hr 36? Hr 48 is a 973mb SLP in N NY... I am going to guess hr 36 is in Delmarva? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Who has an hr 36? Hr 48 is a 973mb SLP in N NY... I am going to guess hr 36 is in Delmarva? Yoda, use this site. It has ALL euro output in 3-hour increments. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/temperature-f/20171028-2100z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Yoda, use this site. It has ALL euro output in 3-hour increments. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/temperature-f/20171028-2100z.html I always forget that site lol... I have it bookmarked now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Yikes... 100 kph at the 925mb level over N VA at 03z and 06z MON -- 60-70 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Yikes... 100 kph at the 925mb level over N VA at 03z and 06z MON -- 60-70 mph Surface gusts in low 50's at the peak between 10pm tomorrow and 4am on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 LWX afternoon AFD .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Starting Sunday, and lasting through Monday morning, will be a very complex weather situation. Low pressure will develop along the cold front in North Carolina early Sunday morning, and then it appears to the 12Z ECMWF deterministic has a low develop north of TD 18 off the southeast U.S. coast. These two lows merge into one strong low pressure system east of Delmarva Peninsula, before backing into the Hudson Valley/Adirondacks of NY State Sunday night. This will provide very strong warm air advection around the low on Sunday morning, as the very moist H85 theta-e field -- partly sourced from the tropics -- gets advected into our CWA on a strong easterly H85 windfield, slamming into the drier air behind the front. This will cause a period of heavy rainfall on Sunday morning into early afternoon, particularly for locations along and east of I-95. There is enough CAPE and shear, per the 00Z NCAR WRF Ensembles, to bring a threat of severe weather, including a tornado or two, for southern Maryland and the surrouning coastal waters for a period of time between 600 AM and Noon Sunday. The antecedent conditions will minimize the flooding threat, but I wouldn`t be surprised to see 2-4" of rainfall east of the I-95 corridor when rainfall ends Sunday night. With the explosive cyclogenisis, wind will begin in earnest after sunset on Sunday, with H85 winds to 65kts by 06Z Monday. Winds will begin to get gusty on Sunday afternoon, but the stronger wind fields will come on Sunday night, and last through Monday morning. How much wind gets down from the low level jet remains to be seen due to the stability of the boundary layer as influenced by rainfall and low level temps, but certainly wind advisories are likely across the entire CWA Sunday night. Winds will diminish through the day on Monday into Monday night. Models are also showing an upslope snow event beginning Sunday evening and lasting through Sunday night. Boundary layer temps will be marginal, and certainly the threat exists for advisory level snows in the high terrain along the Allegheny Front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro gust product is so weenie lol. Eastern MD gets smoked with precip. I'll take 3". Have had under an inch imby over the last month and a half. eta- more like 1.10", and 0.76" for October so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro gust product is so weenie lol. Eastern MD gets smoked with precip. It has 90 mph gusts in the Hudson Valley! That's some crazy shiat right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Dale City is in a kind of dryslot. KLWX is starting to come around. They are trimming pops from 100 percent today, to 70 percent. Rain will be scattered and sporadic thru tonight. Total rain about a quarter to a third of an inch. What effing deform zone? In New York State much later tonight or early Monday, sure. This was always going to be a New York State event. This was never going to be for Northern VA. KLWX will come around. This has already been an embarrassment for them so far. My forecast is 30 percent chance of scattered light rain showers for today. More rain farther east, in eastern Del Mar Va duh. Tonight, 60 percent chance of some light rain in Dale City. Total rain a third of an inch. Much more rain northeast of Baltimore later tonight. Philadelphia gets waterboarded late tonight with torrential rain as the cyclogenesis gets going. It is not going to develop in time for our latitude. I just happen to be one of the foremost experts on LA Nina climatology in northern VA. I damn near almost have a kind of outright precognition. KLWX mets go to met school for years then get humbled by a developing frontal low and are forced to alter their forecast for Northern Virginia, to much DRIER. Duh. Our latitude in a LA Nina misses out on heavy rain especially where coastal cyclogenesis is involved. This is nothing new and it is hardly rocket science. Deformation zone over Dale City in October in a LA Nina ? KLWX will need warp capable ship to catch up lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhatStorm Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Snowing in Blue Grass. Lounge chairs covered...Summer done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 30 minutes ago, PhatStorm said: Snowing in Blue Grass. Lounge chairs covered...Summer done Can we trade places? No seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 REALLY late, but here it is- Oct monthly report for my location Rainfall total 8.31 inches, a new monthly record for October beating old mark of 7.34 inches from 2006. This is a +5.61 above the normal of 2.70 inches. There were three separate 2+ events, 2.66 on 9th, 2.82 on 24th (a new daily record) and 2.18 on 29th (also a new daily record). 11 days with measurable, one day with a T and 19 dry days. High temp averaged 70.4 degrees for the month, a +2.6 degrees above normal of 67.8 degrees. Warmest day was 84.8 degrees on the 7th. Low temp averaged 44.6 degrees for the month, a +3.8 degrees above the normal of 40.8 degrees. Coldest was 29.9 degrees on the 27th. 3 record high minimums set in a row with 62.7 on 11th, 61.9 on 10th and 67.7 degrees on the 9th, which also is the warmest low temp I've recorded so late into the year. Average temp for month was 57.5 degrees, a +3.2 degrees above average of 54.3 degrees. Highest wind was 31 mph on 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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