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October Discobs Thread

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Using the 'mean wind speed with streamline's from the Euro, we don't see winds above 20mph.  Pretty meh:  https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/windspeed-streamlines/20171030-0900z.html

Mean wind speed products always suck except for over open water. Not very accurate over land. Gust panels usually overdo it but looking at the UL energy coming through with intense slp not far to the N means it's going to be down right gusty at times. Winds should have no problem mixing down with the instability. If we get comma head action I expect reports of sideways rain at times (assuming the euro is what actually happens). This is an intense storm. I know you'll "meh" it to death unless you break character. 

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

37 at home in Reisterstown, 33 in Laytonsville on the car thermometer driving in off Annapolis Rock Rd, 35 at Public Safety HQ in Gaithersburg with radiation fog off the lake.  Really amazing to see DCA and DMH (Baltimore Inner Harbor) at 46 degrees while everyone else flirts with freezing.  Heck FME (Ft. Mead) got down to 32!

32 IMBY. first freeze of the season. 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Mean wind speed products always suck except for over open water. Not very accurate over land. Gust panels usually overdo it but looking at the UL energy coming through with intense slp not far to the N means it's going to be down right gusty at times. Winds should have no problem mixing down with the instability. If we get comma head action I expect reports of sideways rain at times (assuming the euro is what actually happens). This is an intense storm. I know you'll "meh" it to death unless you break character. 

Good to know.  I like tools that underestimate things because when they go bullish you have higher confidence that a big impact event is coming.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Excellent afternoon AFD from LWX re upcoming storm system: 

Showers will then overspread the entire CWA on Saturday night as
the aforementioned cold front crosses the region. Right now, it
appears this front will enter the CWA from the west early
Saturday evening, with the front reaching the metro early Sunday
morning before heading east towards the Delmarva most likely by
midday. There remain some timing differences among the models,
however, primarily due to the interaction between the strong
trough aloft which will be digging in just behind the cold
front, and the potential tropical system which will be pulled
northward along the front by the upper trough, which will
eventually merge with low pressure along the front. Some
guidance has a band of heavy rain with the frontal passage it
self, but there is a slow trend in guidance towards more rain
later on Sunday as the potential tropical system interacts with
the upper trough and strengthens, with heavy rain potentially
redeveloping across the region late Sunday after a break
immediately behind the cold front earlier in the day. As the low
pressure pushes north of the region, colder air sweeps in on
gusty winds later Sunday and Sunday night, with temperatures
possibly falling all through Sunday and Sunday night. Rain would
likely end as we head through Sunday night and the low pushes
into New England, though upslope showers, including snow
showers, could continue into Monday.

This complex system brings three basic threats. First, the
potential for heavy rain, which based on guidance could easily
amount to 1-2 inches, with local amounts of 3 inches not out of
the question. The main question regarding this threat is time
span. That amount of rain could cause issue if it falls in short
enough of a period. However, since it appears likely to fall
over 3-6 hours at minimum, likely a bit longer, the risk of
flash flooding is low. Also, since we have had a dry autumn,
longer fuse flooding appears unlikely as well, so at this point
we are not highlighting any flood threat. However, isolated
instances of flooding or flash flooding would not be shocking.

Second issue is gusty winds. As the system moves north and
stregthens, winds just above the surface get rather strong,
particularly Sunday night. 925 winds get particularly strong,
with some models showing 50 knots or more on Sunday night. Given
this, we have highlighted the potential for a wind advisory for
parts of the area Sunday into Monday, with main focus likely to
be Sunday night. Most at risk would probably be northern MD and
higher ridges, but there is potential through the entire metro,
at least.

Third potential is winter weather. This threat is very real,
but also appears very limited, as temperatures just won`t be all
that cold yet. That said, we do expect a few inches of snow on
the back side of the system across the higher terrain of West
Virginia and western Virginia. Isolated amounts of advisory
level are not impossible, but given the small geographic area
and small amounts, have opted not to highlight this potential
yet. Even where it happens, warm atecedent temperatures will
likely lead to more wet roads versus snow covered ones.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps clustering  really tightening up now. Mean is close to the South Jersey shore. Many mega bombs in there :o

Mean L.p. just off shore se Jersey by 30 miles 

Mean qpf went up again to 1.6"- 2.0""

My personal favorite is the 969 bomb over Harrisburg :lmao:

Heck...several members have a 980s low at N. Carolinas latitude..geez

Welp, I said the overnight euro op run was probably top end. That was wrong. I guess 12z is top end potential? Any stronger and we're approaching cat 2 and stuff. Sub 960 or bust? Lol

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

2014 big snowstorm Gfs never even made it to the street the party was on..lol . It had 3-6" till the final hour. lol . It's computing power or inferior physics just Gets Euro schooled on these complicated setups it seems.

Gfs usually gets schooled by the Euro. Except for that late March 2016 storm where the Euro advertised 3-6" for DC while the Gfs advertised it going farther East. Other than that, it doesn't compete

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