mattie g Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 36 at home this morning. No frost on the car when I left. Got into DC, and the car thermometer read 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 35.7 for my low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Eps mean lp made another shift west and stronger . Looking at individual members one could argue this has potential to come further west ..lol. ok Euro held serve ...it's in its deadly zone ..I'm close to all in. What a classic wraparound crushing comma head portrayed on the Euro If this was winter @psuhoffman would approve Shame this is coming a few weeks too soon. We did get snow in late October before but it takes perfect setup. Unfortunately it doesn't make me feel any better long term since the year I got a perfect nor'easter in October with 8" of snow lead to one of the worst winters ever after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Shame this is coming a few weeks too soon. We did get snow in late October before but it takes perfect setup. Unfortunately it doesn't make me feel any better long term since the year I got a perfect nor'easter in October with 8" of snow lead to one of the worst winters ever after. History says that October snow is not a good omen for the coming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: History says that October snow is not a good omen for the coming winter. I just don't buy that. I think it's more a byproduct of Oct snow being really rare and bad snow years being pretty common. Statistics and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 06z NAM (I know) with a really raw Sunday evening. Temps in the low 40s, winds gusting into the 30s, and a band of rain hanging around 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 32.1 for the low. Is that technically 'freezing' or did I miss by .1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I just don't buy that. I think it's more a byproduct of Oct snow being really rare and bad snow years being pretty common. Statistics and stuff. I was in Lancaster, PA during the Oct 2011 event. Joe Calhoun from WGAL had a segment about October snow and it's impact on Lancaster, Harrisburg, and Baltimore winters. The research had a limited data set (N <12) but it showed that if more than 1" was recorded at any of the three aforementioned locations, then the seasonal snowfall was less than 75% of climo and there were no double digit events at any of the locations. Again, not a huge data set to pull from but it wasn't encouraging. With BWI not faring well, I'd imagine that IAD and DCA being further south and lower in elevation would fare worse unless there's a rogue southern slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 First frost of the year in Columbia Heights! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I just don't buy that. I think it's more a byproduct of Oct snow being really rare and bad snow years being pretty common. Statistics and stuff. I think your right and that's a big part of it. But I do think there are two legit reasons there might be a slight bias towards a worse winter pattern when we get very early snow. One being that patterns are unlikely to lock in for that long. If we are having a cold wintery pattern in late October and early November it's likely it will shift by the heart of winter. To get a great winter our best chance is to time things up between xmas and mid February. Of course some years are so perfect timing won't matter. But the rest we need lucky timing if pattern shifts. The other reason could be that as seasons change the same set of conditions that could cause an early season cold snap might not have the same desired effect later. I think your reason of just bad luck and odds is most of it. Enough that I'm not rooting against snow in October. But I could see how snow this early could slightly reduce the odds of getting a good pattern later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I was in Lancaster, PA during the Oct 2011 event. Joe Calhoun from WGAL had a segment about October snow and it's impact on Lancaster, Harrisburg, and Baltimore winters. The research had a limited data set (N <12) but it showed that if more than 1" was recorded at any of the three aforementioned locations, then the seasonal snowfall was less than 75% of climo and there were no double digit events at any of the locations. Again, not a huge data set to pull from but it wasn't encouraging. With BWI not faring well, I'd imagine that IAD and DCA being further south and lower in elevation would fare worse unless there's a rogue southern slider. There could be something to it. I'm just guessing based on stats. If you go back 21 years @ DCA, 15 of the winters were sub climo. So close to a 75% chance we don't hit climo in any season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Low of 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I just don't buy that. I think it's more a byproduct of Oct snow being really rare and bad snow years being pretty common. Statistics and stuff. Bob, at least at BWI, there haven't been any winters that a decent October pattern that yielded a measurable snow event resulted in a great winter. 79/80 was borderline, and DCA & IAD had AN snows, but BWI was only 75% of normal. Although the years with measurable snowfall at BWI are few, none of them in my lifetime amounted to a decent winter. So count me as one of those old wives on this issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 4 hours ago, smokeybandit said: Down to 35. No real sign of frost though I lied. There was frost around, just not IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I just don't buy that. I think it's more a byproduct of Oct snow being really rare and bad snow years being pretty common. Statistics and stuff. The reverse would then have to be true. There should be an example of an October snow followed by an above avg snowfall season. Lower odds, but not zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The reverse would then have to be true. There should be an example of an October snow followed by an above avg snowfall season. Lower odds, but not zero. If you include traces then there are a half dozen for DC. But they are from a long time ago... 1892-93 T 31" 1917-18 T 36.4" 1925-26 2.2" 17.4" 1940-41 1.5" 17.9" 1957-58 T 40.4" 1979-80 .3" 20.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 GFS just made a significant jump towards the euro with the sun-mon deal compared to the past 3 runs. Consensus coming into view now. GFS for the first time gets us in on some comma head precip action too but overall the 95 corridor gets the dryslot shafting. lol Similar wind setup overnight sunday as the euro but not as intense. That's what I'm most interested in honestly. HWW and trees down...EJ style...wooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If you include traces then there are a half dozen for DC. But they are from a long time ago... 1892-93 T 31" 1917-18 T 36.4" 1925-26 2.2" 17.4" 1940-41 1.5" 17.9" 1957-58 T 40.4" 1979-80 .3" 20.1" What counts as a trace? Snow in the air, or must it accumulate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS just made a significant jump towards the euro with the sun-mon deal compared to the past 3 runs. Consensus coming into view now. GFS for the first time gets us in on some comma head precip action too but overall the 95 corridor gets the dryslot shafting. lol Similar wind setup overnight sunday as the euro but not as intense. That's what I'm most interested in honestly. HWW and trees down...EJ style...wooo I bet we won't get a HWW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: I bet we won't get a HWW Prob not. Missing strong HP behind the storm so all of the wind is generated from cyclonic flow and not a gradient. But it's a helluva storm for any month. I can't really remember a similar event (non-tropical). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 26 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I bet we won't get a HWW eat beans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 I hope this winter features us fighting a bunch of dryslots...i will take my chances with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I hope this winter features us fighting a bunch of dryslots...i will take my chances with that Getting cocky being back in Leesburg I see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 CMC has a pretty nasty comma head that tags us pretty good. Right now the GFS is the weakest of all ops and its 12z run was a noticeable jump towards what the Euro/Ukie/CMC have. If the euro holds again we're getting pretty locked in now. This is a very interesting storm from a dynamics/synoptic standpoint. It should "feel" like a legit storm and not just a rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Euro totally held serve. Only small "noise" type of differences in precip distribution but pretty much 1.5 - 2.5" for everyone. Over 3" out by winchester. Howling winds again on the panels. It's a at least a digital HWA. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Wow, 975mb right over top of philly @ 10pm sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Wow, 975mb right over top of philly @ 10pm sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I thought 0z was max potential for our area. This run was even better. Slight shift west and strong AF. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I think it's 972 near mt Pocono but who cares ...right . Wow what a freaking bomb You should start a thread. This one is definitely thread worthy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Heck no...Too early.lol. this could be a real fun storm to track on meso models and nowcasting 80-90mph gusts near ACY at "landfall". lol. Insane run. NYC area will get pummeled with wind with that track. This is going to be an expensive fall storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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