Kmlwx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 925mb winds appear to get into the low 40kt range looking at the CoD site. Hopefully the power goes out at work and they close the office on Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 0z euro had 925s over 60mph in the region between 7-10pm Sunday. We'll see how it looks in a couple hours when 12z comes out. I don't think the strong southerly winds in front of the storm will mix well but this is a pretty ripe setup on the backside of the low. It's not like 40mph wind gusts are uncommon or mind blowing in the fall or anything but with the trees still mostly leafed out it will be at least entertaining if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 26, 2017 Author Share Posted October 26, 2017 12z UKMET at 72 hours. (12z SAT OCT 29, 2017) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 go here for all the Euro products, including precip you can even zoom to a county map https://weather.us/model-charts/euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 wind gusts to near 50mph Monday 4AM https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/anne-arundel/gusts-3h-mph/20171030-0600z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea..I bookmarked it a while back but haven't checked it out too much yet ...thanks though. Like any of the model sites, once you get use to how the parameters work, it gets simple to use. They all seem to have their own way of doing things, which makes it a little cumbersome at first. I like that you can zoom into any county. That's the best resolution I've seen anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 lot of chatter on twitter whether this would be a nor'easter or not. looks fun either way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 18z gfs is progressive and boring around these parts. Pretty big shift...storm is a late bloomer. Bias or on to something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 24 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 18z gfs is progressive and boring around these parts. Pretty big shift...storm is a late bloomer. Bias or on to something? GFS has generally been more progressive/late developing than most other guidance. 18z even more so. I think all the models are showing their typical bias for this event. Will be interesting to see how it actually evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 I agree about the setup...if the Euro would have bumped east, even just a hair at 12z I would be more inclined to think the gfs is probably on to something...You are right though! Some of those eps ind members are intense. A lot of coastal huggers in there... 18z gefs pretty much agree with the op. Surprise surprise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Was out all afternoon and just took a look at the euro. Could be overdoing intensity and might trim back as we move forward but man, what an intense storm for Oct. I can't remember the last time there was a non-tropical sub 980 low hitting the coast like that. As @losetoa6 said multiple times, the h5 setup has been ripe for a strong synoptic event but the 12z euro run is damn impressive. Not sure what to think about the 18z gfs being much less organized. I suppose the 12z euro is probably the max solution but we're talking day 3-4 so the lead isn't that long. Probably safe to assume that verification will be somewhere between the two and hopefully much closer to the Euro. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea...Bob was talking during tropical about the gefs and how jumpy and how it would have a very narrow clustering at long leads which was bogus . It never used to be like that . Yes, I do remember Bob bringing that up. To be honest, I think this is the first time since tropical that Iv'e looked at something other than long lead h5 stuff on ens...maybe this occurs on the gefs every storm? I dont recall the gefs being like this last winter..going to be an annoying rollercoaster ride each storm this winter. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Yea, there's something wrong with the gefs spread. I've read a couple posts around amwx this summer saying that it's a known problem and occurred after the last upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Today's weather is what I wait all year for. Just perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 24 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Today's weather is what I wait all year for. Just perfect. The wind made it perfect as well. Actually needed to pull out a large jacket for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Nam made a big jump toward the Euro...hopefully Gfs follows suit. Too late for me though GFS still very progressive which keeps the low further east and puts us right on the edge of a major screw zone for precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 27, 2017 Author Share Posted October 27, 2017 0z UKMET at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 First freezing temperature of the year here. Just dropped to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Euro says "cya soon" Gfs https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/acc-total-precipitation/20171030-1200z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 40. Not bad, but nowhere near freeze. Looks like it might be awhile till we get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 35 was my low, I haven't been following how much rain is coming? I see what the euro says and just checked gfs which is about half..nam is less than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 33 with a heavy frost....at 10pm last night temp was 38. thought the first freeze was on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 38 here inside the beltway. Almost verified the frost advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Down to 35. No real sign of frost though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 40.9 for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 was 36.4 when I left at 6:30. DP 35 so I figured I'd be one of the higher ones (as usual this time of year), but not so sure that will be true. Definitely didn't have to scape anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 15 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Don't have twitter...what's the big wigs saying CWG wants to call it a nor'easter, but some mets up north are saying no due to the south wind components. you know, just typical weather twitter back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 37 at home in Reisterstown, 33 in Laytonsville on the car thermometer driving in off Annapolis Rock Rd, 35 at Public Safety HQ in Gaithersburg with radiation fog off the lake. Really amazing to see DCA and DMH (Baltimore Inner Harbor) at 46 degrees while everyone else flirts with freezing. Heck FME (Ft. Mead) got down to 32! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 7 hours ago, George BM said: 0z UKMET at 72 hours. <snip> 991 off Norfolk is nice. Just tuck it in a wee bit more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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