Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 I've looked at literally thousands of model runs over the years. The 12z gfs had a 1048hp over AK @ d9. I thought it looked suspect but who really cares about hp over AK at 9 days leads. Amazingly, the euro has a 1052. lol. I think that's the highest pressure I've ever seen over NA in the fall. 2014 had some ridiculous HP's in western canada during Jan. Going off a foggy memory but I remember seeing a 1060? on a model run in 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I've looked at literally thousands of model runs over the years. The 12z gfs had a 1048hp over AK @ d9. I thought it looked suspect but who really cares about hp over AK at 9 days leads. Amazingly, the euro has a 1052. lol. I think that's the highest pressure I've ever seen over NA in the fall. 2014 had some ridiculous HP's in western canada during Jan. Going off a foggy memory but I remember seeing a 1060? on a model run in 2014. I guess this counts. It's interesting to see how localized the ridge is modeled to be situated surrounded by so many low height anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 If something big changes in the short term, chance this becomes light snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Yeah, I fear something big would have to happen to get us anything. For a couple GFS runs (2 days back?) light snow was advertised, but I can't find a single ens member that supports snow anymore. Hope we can squeeze something out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 What a fierce cold front. From 10-15f above normal all the way down to 8-12f above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: What a fierce cold front. From 10-15f above normal all the way down to 8-12f above normal. Remain vigilant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowerLowerDE Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 I saw two super cells in the line of storms that crushed eastern NY and NE last night. I saw them around 4:30 pm and checked the radar. They were 30+ miles away and looked like they were much closer. They were training up the coast of DE just off shore. It was so cool to see as I have been watching the storm spotter videos on youtube and they were classic examples. They were discrete and blew up even larger on the radar as they continued north over the ocean. It was a WOW! for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 11:15 last night had a beautiful lightning show just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 So it begins Western Pendleton- Including the city of Riverton 730 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 .TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers this afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph this morning. Chance of rain 20 percent. .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch possible. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: What a fierce cold front. From 10-15f above normal all the way down to 8-12f above normal. Give it a day for the front to clear better, you are further east than me. I pulled a 36.2 low and 64.1 high on this mornings report, normal for date here is 65/38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: What a fierce cold front. From 10-15f above normal all the way down to 8-12f above normal. Indeed. I went from no jacket to no jacket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 42 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Indeed. I went from no jacket to no jacket. 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: What a fierce cold front. From 10-15f above normal all the way down to 8-12f above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 12z GFS has some decent rain overnight Sat into Sun, and then a dreary, showery Sunday with midday temps in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Wind advisory late sunday into the overnight? Pretty good setup to mix winds down. Especially across the northern tier/parrs area. We tend to do well in the fall with wind in setups like this. Decent upper level energy swinging through with a squeeze play going on behind deep lp to the NE and hp to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 12z GFS has some decent rain overnight Sat into Sun, and then a dreary, showery Sunday with midday temps in the 40s. Sunday looks like a day with a max temp at 3AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Wind advisory late sunday into the overnight? Pretty good setup to mix winds down. Especially across the northern tier/parrs area. We tend to do well in the fall with wind in setups like this. Decent upper level energy swinging through with a squeeze play going on behind deep lp to the NE and hp to the SW. Forecast soundings for Sunday night here look well-mixed in the low levels, so strong winds coming down to the surface look like a legit threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Yep...Mid 60s overnight to low 40s by afternoon n/w will feel like fall and wind to boot. Crashing 850s on the west edge of the precip. Maybe some place like Catoctin or Winchester could eek a few flurries.Subzero 850s & some precip for almost everyone on the subforum. Surface temps pretty meh though, probably 40 even out in Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 3 hours ago, yoda said: So it begins Western Pendleton- Including the city of Riverton 730 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 .TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers this afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph this morning. Chance of rain 20 percent. .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch possible. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Another interesting AFD to go along with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Euro is aggressive on the rain chances for Sunday. via weather.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Im rooting for the Euro. That would be a nice event ending as snow flurries or showers verbatim. Yup, mentioned that in the medium/long range thread. Would be nice if we could trend maybe a little colder. Stranger things have happened. Obviously you have better odds up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Finally some reports fo snowshowers in WV! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 It’s snowing lightly at Canaan also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Crisp high of 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looking closer at the op Euro...it's even more exciting than I thought. Central Md gets precip for 30+ hours amounting to 2.5-3.5"....decent wind gusts for 48 hours and crashing temps with possible flakes. Looking at latest gefs ..many members have lows in the 970s as it hits southern ne..heck of a storm up there if that verifies. Of course Euro will change in 5 hours ..lol. the trend cant be denied for a stronger low past 24 hours. MN Transplant's map above shows 3.6-4 inches for Carroll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 My windshield wipers squeezed off a fair amount of "partly sunny" on the ride in this morning. (Not LWX bashing; just trying for humor) So officially: light rain/showers driving in. Probably no more than a couple hundredths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 And it did..no surprise .. Euro tends to get amp happy like the GGEM sometimes. But it was fun disecting that 12z run while it lasted.I see the Ukmet picked up what the Euro was selling and is tighter to the coast then Gfs and Euro at 0z.Yeah, now the GFS has the better odds at first flakes for you guys. Has some precip left while the 850s is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: And it did..no surprise .. Euro tends to get amp happy like the GGEM sometimes. But it was fun disecting that 12z run while it lasted.Euro still gets to a wicked low pressure over ne but that bend nw we saw to keep us in the fun is gone.I see the Ukmet picked up what the Euro was selling and is tighter to the coast then Gfs and Euro at 0z. You have to admit, the DC split on the Euro is pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Just be glad it is only a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don’t know what a snowstorm looks like anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Still an impressive wind setup on tap. Sure looks like enough dynamics and instability to efficiently mix things down. 979mb is no joke any time of year either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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