NNE Fall Thread

[WxBlue]

19 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I didn't mean to be complaining its just that I miss the good Met input for a potentially interesting situation for me.  Don't expect them to discuss since its not relevant.  I just sometimes wish there were more posters up here. You are the only one in my area with deep knowledge and even your situation can be different than mine.

My knowledge level isn't up there with other mets yet, especially local climatology and geography, but I'm hoping to offer more inputs once I feel more confident.

It's a bit weird for me. I'm also in NNE, but my town's weather behave more like a colder version of SNE weather at this time of year since I'm so close to the coast.

[dryslot]

Just now, alex said:

Can you get this type of map from the Model Center?

I'm not sure, I'm subscribed to Wxbell and Stormvista and don't use the model center but someone else could probably answer this.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

My knowledge level isn't up there with other mets yet, especially local climatology and geography, but I'm hoping to offer more inputs once I feel more confident.

It's a bit weird for me. I'm also in NNE, but my town's weather behave more like a colder version of SNE weather at this time of year since I'm so close to the coast.

I think we give you the CNE designation................lol

[WxBlue]

5 minutes ago, alex said:

Can you get this type of map from the Model Center?

Same guy who coded that map left WxBell (the company with paywall model page looking like that) and created his own website under a similar format: wx.graphics

You can find his ECMWF page here: http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

Just now, dryslot said:

I think we give you the CNE designation................lol

LOL I might have to start using that more.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Same guy who coded that map left WxBell (the company with paywall model page looking like that) and created his own website under a similar format: wx.graphics

You can find his ECMWF page here: http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

LOL I might have to start using that more.

This should help..............

 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

0z Euro hitting the Mahoosucs and NW Maine hard tomorrow night.

That has 4-5" at my place.  Maybe at 1200' on McGaffey Mt (Kennebec Highlands), but 800'+ lower I expect some slushy rain, maybe - would love to be wrong. 

Nice map of NE subregions, though perhaps it needs a zone north of a Jackman-HUL line, labeled "Labrador."

 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

That has 4-5" at my place.  Maybe at 1200' on McGaffey Mt (Kennebec Highlands), but 800'+ lower I expect some slushy rain, maybe - would love to be wrong. 

 

I don't expect much here also, But if it can rip for a short period in the overnight, I may get some backside scraps of the CCB.

[alex]

16 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Same guy who coded that map left WxBell (the company with paywall model page looking like that) and created his own website under a similar format: wx.graphics

You can find his ECMWF page here: http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

LOL I might have to start using that more.

Thank you!!!

[dryslot]

29 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Same guy who coded that map left WxBell (the company with paywall model page looking like that) and created his own website under a similar format: wx.graphics

You can find his ECMWF page here: http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

LOL I might have to start using that more.

Is that a pay site?

[WxBlue]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Is that a pay site?

Nope. Ryan Maue, the site developer, believe that everyone should have free access to higher-resolution ECMWF.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Nope. Ryan Maue, the site developer, believe that everyone should have free access to higher-resolution ECMWF.

Do you have the website link?

[WxBlue]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Do you have the website link?

This should take you to the main page: http://wx.graphics/

I should warn you that it's still under construction and Maue is still adding stuff to it everyday. Give him few months and he'll make it better than what it was on WxBell.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

This should take you to the main page: http://wx.graphics/

I should warn you that it's still under construction and Maue is still adding stuff to it everyday. Give him few months and he'll make it better than what it was on WxBell.

Thanks, I'm on monthly with wxbell so we can scrap that subscription anytime.

[dendrite]

39 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This should help..............

 

MPM will be furious when he sees this.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

MPM will be furious when he sees this.

lol

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

I didn't mean to be complaining its just that I miss the good Met input for a potentially interesting situation for me.  Don't expect them to discuss since its not relevant.  I just sometimes wish there were more posters up here. You are the only one in my area with deep knowledge and even your situation can be different than mine.

 

Well, you got definitely some discussion started in the thread regarding the event (with maps!), so that’s a plus.  And as a bonus, we even learned about a useful website that’s out there with some ECMWF data.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

I didn't mean to be complaining its just that I miss the good Met input for a potentially interesting situation for me.  Don't expect them to discuss since its not relevant.  I just sometimes wish there were more posters up here. You are the only one in my area with deep knowledge and even your situation can be different than mine.

Sorry Gene...wasn't trying to be harsh or insulting there. I think they tend to contribute on NNE exclusive events if it looks like a big deal. When it's mostly just the mtns involved and it's borderline, there isn't a lot to say I guess. It's tough to forecast the exact snow level. 2kft and it's congrats ski areas. 1kft and now you're affecting residential areas. 700ft and almost everyone is involved. You can analyze it to death, but sometimes you just need to let it play out. I hope you get a nice surprise though. You're due for an elevation exclusive jackpot up there.

[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

This should take you to the main page: http://wx.graphics/

I should warn you that it's still under construction and Maue is still adding stuff to it everyday. Give him few months and he'll make it better than what it was on WxBell.

And I doubt it will remain open to the public long term. I know he says that, but in the end it comes down to $$$.

[ORH_wxman]

If you go back a couple pages in the model thread, I was discussing the event with Scott...it does look tough below 2k feet...and esp below 1500 feet. We'll see how strong the lift is and how the boundary layer responds. There's a pretty good warm tongue at around 925mb that needs to be washed out.

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, adk said:

The first rule of Fight Club is that you don't talk about Fight club. 

 

Hehe, agreed… which is why I always talk about fight club.

[backedgeapproaching]

5 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 28.0 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: Trace

 

I arrived at the Waterbury Park and Ride yesterday evening to find light snow falling and accumulating on my car.  The snow continued back to the house, but the snow was so light, and the flakes small enough, that I really didn’t expect any accumulation.  I didn’t even check on the BTV NWS forecast discussion to find the origin of the snow – I figured it would go down as a trace and that would be that.

 

This morning I’d already entered and sent in my CoCoRaHS data at a trace of new snow, when low and behold I happened to go outside and realized that there was a bit of new accumulation.  After measurement I had to go back and edit my entry to indicate that there was a tenth of an inch.  That of course meant I needed to know the origin of the snow for my records, and thanks to the helpful BTV NWS forecast discussion archive system, I was able to find out that it was a from a weak shortwave trough, although I guess the low level inversion could be involved as well, since we sometimes have light flakes falling out of those.

e.

Once again you magical location shines as you are the only VT cocorahs station to report measurable snow with your .1"---The rest of us scrubs had a bunch of T's and 0.0's  

[WxBlue]

41 minutes ago, dendrite said:

And I doubt it will remain open to the public long term. I know he says that, but in the end it comes down to $$$.

and ECMWF data is not cheap.

[alex]

This is not a bad forecast for mid-November:

This Afternoon

Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Tonight

A 30 percent chance of snow after 4am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 28. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday

Rain and snow. High near 36. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Thursday Night

Rain and snow likely before 4am, then a chance of snow after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Friday

A chance of snow before 7am, then a chance of snow showers after 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 29. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 14.

Saturday

Snow likely, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night

Rain and snow before 11pm, then rain between 11pm and 4am, then rain and snow after 4am. Low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Sunday

Snow before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow between 10am and 2pm, then a chance of snow after 2pm. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday Night

A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.

Monday

A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 26.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.

Tuesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 35.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Im trying to decide wether the Kanc or Pinkham Notch offers a better snow drive tommorrow.

Im leaning Kanc.  At 2800' there should be quite the accums. 

90minute drive

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Once again you magical location shines as you are the only VT cocorahs station to report measurable snow with your .1"---The rest of us scrubs had a bunch of T's and 0.0's  

 

 

I probably would have been at T as well had I not happened to step outside, catch that glimpse of what was sitting on the elevated surfaces, and decide it needed a bit more scrutiny.  I’m sure many other spots around were hitting/breaking that 0.1” mark, but most observers probably felt it wasn’t worth the hassle to measure for such a borderline event.

[ORH_wxman]

45 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Im trying to decide wether the Kanc or Pinkham Notch offers a better snow drive tommorrow.

Im leaning Kanc.  At 2800' there should be quite the accums. 

90minute drive

You might need that extra 700-800 feet on the Kanc.

[Hitman]

I'd assume its in the same spot at 3900'

[SJonesWX]

5 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I didn't mean to be complaining its just that I miss the good Met input for a potentially interesting situation for me.  Don't expect them to discuss since its not relevant.  I just sometimes wish there were more posters up here. You are the only one in my area with deep knowledge and even your situation can be different than mine.

maybe you need to spend more time with your new neighbor.

[wxeyeNH]

26 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

maybe you need to spend more time with your new neighbor.

Ha,  its already paying dividends having Matt and Danielle as neighbors.  When I visited last weekend I was complaining to Matt that I don't like having my antique Windows XP desktop running to upload the Davis weather station.  He suggested their IP Weatherlink logger.  So bought one and it came today.  Now I'm 24/7 online.  I'm building a little weatherpage with my 2 webcams and weather station for no stop shopping.  In time for our cold rainstorm here is the new Weatherlink page.

https://www.weatherlink.com/user/wxeyenh/index.php?view=main&headers=1

[J.Spin]

The BTV NWS has updated their forecast discussion with regard to the upcoming system.  As usual, there’s some really informative, no-nonsense discussion covering the potential effects in the mountains and valleys:

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

As of 250 PM EST Wednesday...quiet across the region with temperatures pretty close to where they should be this time of the year. Next system is rapidly approaching from the west however. 12z guidance didn`t have any major changes to the overall synoptic evolution, but given all of them being fairly close with regard to the important temperature profile in the lowest few thousand feet, it does give some additional confidence in fine tuning some important details for the precipitation type forecasts. Here are the expectations...

 

Tonight/Early Thursday morning: followed a mix of the hi-res models (NAM3km, BTV4km, NAM) for the timing of the precipitation. Looks like generally 11pm (west) to 4am (east) we`ll see light precipitation develop. For the most part from the Champlain Valley westward, most places may start with a very brief period of light snow, but quickly turn over to light rain as the boundary layer will be warming quickly on strengthening southerly winds. Could see a coating at elevations above 1500` across the `Dacks. The southerly winds will be gusting 25-30 mph, especially in the Champlain Valley as a low level jet develops.

 

However, as frequently happens, the boundary layer will remain colder east of the Green Mountains as that southerly low level jet won`t be able to scour out the low level cold as quickly. So precipitation starts as snow late tonight in eastern Vermont and stays that way for several hours. Eventually warmer air aloft will win out, but during the transition we`ll probably see a brief period of sleet as well. All the models have this sort of scenario, but differ on exactly where and when mixed precip is occurring. Used a blend GFS and NAM for the temperature profile to drive the forecast for rain vs sleet vs snow. The good news is that there isn`t a lot of moisture with this system, so snow/sleet accumulations across eastern Vermont will only be 1-2". Still, given the timing, the morning commute will probably be slow going and messy.

 

Thursday: Boundary layer temperatures warm enough that everywhere will turn to light rain by late morning. Temperatures will push well into the 40s from the Champlain Valley westward. Some guidance suggests even 50F in a few spots. Southerly winds will remain gusty at times during the mornings. Highs will be a bit cooler across eastern Vermont, but still above freezing.

 

Thursday night: Cold front sweeps through during the evening hours with winds switching to the west/northwest. An interesting setup appears to be coming together. An upper level shortwave also drops down from the northwest just after the front. This feature will also bring a brief increase in deeper moisture. All the hi-res models show a roughly 6 hour period of time Thursday night with a strong orographic signal across the `Dacks and northern Green Mountains. Thus expecting an uptick in snow shower activity across the higher terrain. Interesting to note that we`ll have a strongly blocked flow situation (per forecast Froude Numbers around 0.6) as well, so expecting the highest chances of snow showers to be along and just west of the spine of the Green Mountains, and likely backing the moisture up enough that even Burlington gets in on some snow shower activity and perhaps the first measureable snow of the season here at the airport. Looks like 1-3" of snow will fall at elevations above 1000ft in the northern Greens and into the northeast Kingdom Thursday night. The northwest winds will also be a bit gusty at times, probably in the 20-25mph range.