NNE Fall Thread

[wxeyeNH]

Wow Jeremy.  That last picture is a keeper!  The long exposure with the waterfall and the symmetry of the rocks. Could wind a photo contest.  Great job.  I stole it and it's now my desktop background!

Meanwhile 37.3/31 right now with precip a couple of hours away.  The models have had me right on the edge of any accumulating snow.  I think they are going to be right on.  I'll probably end up at around 33-35F with some wet snow not sticking.  We will see...

[eyewall]

Thank you! Rain has begun here

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[J.Spin]

I see that we’ve got some sleet falling here in BTV at the moment – I wouldn’t have known except that it was pinging off my windows here in the office.

[wxeyeNH]

I started as a little bit of snow pellets and snow late last evening at 36 degrees and then went to light rain. Looks like snow fell in Franconia notch

[powderfreak]

Had some snow on my car's windshield this morning and traces around on the grass...looked like it started as snow for a couple hours before going to rain.

A wet coating at 1,500ft and 2" above 2,500ft where it was all snow.

[alex]

Hey guys - have been swamped and not posting much but yes, strange system. Had to go down to Concord today. Woke up to freezing drizzle at home, but decent snow through Franconia Notch (about 2"), a little less in the southern whites then nothing. Nice screw job for me lol... But hey this looks to be the first snow free weekend in a while so I can't complain. Down to patches

[mreaves]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Had some snow on my car's windshield this morning and traces around on the grass...looked like it started as snow for a couple hours before going to rain.

A wet coating at 1,500ft and 2" above 2,500ft where it was all snow.

Nothing much at my house but did notice several cars on my way in this morning with an inch or two of crusty snow on them.  Not sure where they came in from but people commute to Montpelier from a lot of remote places.

[backedgeapproaching]

3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Nothing much at my house but did notice several cars on my way in this morning with an inch or two of crusty snow on them.  Not sure where they came in from but people commute to Montpelier from a lot of remote places.

Man, that happens all the time down here in Manchester, good amount of  people live in the mountain towns on the east slopes from 1500-2500ft, and considering this is the "big city" they all come into here for work, school, etc.  Annoys me 

[J.Spin]

November totals: 15.8” Snow/3.20” L.E.

 

November snow and liquid totals are above, with a few climatological notes of interest below:

 

• It was a good November for snowfall, coming a few inches above average, but overall it’s fairly “middle of the pack”, sitting at 5^th place in my data set.

• This November had a total of eight accumulating storms at our location, which puts it at the top spot in my records in that category ahead of November 2013 and November 2014 that each had seven accumulating storms.

• The number of days with snow on the ground this month was quite impressive for November at our location.  We’ve had snow on the ground every day since the 10^th, (21 consecutive days) and a check on my records reveals that the next closest November was November 2013 with 16 days.  Those 16 days were also not consecutive.

• This month can’t lay claim to the earliest snowpack start in my records because although there was snow on the ground at 6:00 A.M. CoCoRaHS observations time for all those consecutive days, there were a couple of times where the snow totally disappeared at some point during the midday but had been replaced by morning.

[powderfreak]

This is worth watching... probably the deepest powder caught on camera in the East.  This was during the Stella storm last March that left 50" at the local ski resorts and 30" at BTV.

 

[dendrite]

Looks at all of that fake snow.

[J.Spin]

19 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This is worth watching... probably the deepest powder caught on camera in the East.  This was during the Stella storm last March that left 50" at the local ski resorts and 30" at BTV.

 

Nice stuff PF; Stella was a great one around here.  I had actually just put a few pictures from our March 15^th outing at Stowe in a text chat I was having regarding the upcoming Warren Miller movie at the Flynn tonight.  The images brought back some great memories of that storm:

 

 

 

 

[wxeyeNH]

Okay.  Mods.  Isn't there a way of tagging posters that endlessly post and brag about the same thing.  A 5 post daily limit.  These  Vermonters that endless tease us with mounds of snow pictures.  It is very depressing to me. I've had to resort to flying my drone high and to point north glimpse a few pictures of the higher Whites covered in snow... Even Alex's webcam shows bare ground. 

Let's see.  What can I even talk about?  How much my pond freezes and thaws each day?  How much I'm looking forward to a midweek rainstorm?  Maybe after that we will have something to look forward to if I live that long.

BORING!

I know.  A friend of mine spotted a snowy owl yesterday.  Kind of neat, and of the right color too!

[powderfreak]

20 hours ago, dendrite said:

Looks at all of that fake snow.

That's the dream right there, haha... just over-the-head blower. 

 

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Okay.  Mods.  Isn't there a way of tagging posters that endlessly post and brag about the same thing.  A 5 post daily limit.  These  Vermonters that endless tease us with mounds of snow pictures.  It is very depressing to me. I've had to resort to flying my drone high and to point north glimpse a few pictures of the higher Whites covered in snow... Even Alex's webcam shows bare ground.

 

Bare ground here too...snow depth goes from 0" at 700ft....to maybe 1" at 1000ft to 7" at 1500ft.  Very sharp gradient in that final mile or two going to the ski resort.

I had someone from Philly comment on that riding the lift today...they were like we drove up and started to get nervous until we were literally pulling in and the place is all white, snowbanks on the sides of the roads, etc.  Localized winter in a small postage stamp sized area of New England, lol.

 

And then up there today... when you are up there and in it, it might as well be mid-winter.  Then you drive a few minutes home and its back to reality lol.

 

[wxeyeNH]

Wow PF.  Didn't realize it was so localized.  I don't follow the VT postings super closely so just figured the whole N Spine area was white with the impressive amounts higher up but a fairly large area of winter type landscape.  Maybe by later next week we can all share some of that love....

[dendrite]

35 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That's the dream right there, haha... just over-the-head blower. 

 

I don’t ski, but that looked like it almost wouldn’t be enjoyable to me. At what point is it too much of a good thing? That video?

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don’t ski, but that looked like it almost wouldn’t be enjoyable to me. At what point is it too much of a good thing? That video?

Yeah that's pretty much hitting that point.  Out west its a bit different if you are in a wide open bowl or something but in the trees in the east, when you can't see because of the depth of the snow you've got a problem as those hardwoods come fast. 

That storm is the first time I ever remember having a mini-moment of panic because of snow depth.  It was in our minds as before that earlier in the winter a college student had died (drowned) when he fell and got upside down in the fluffy snow during that 108" in 24 day stretch.   But I still remember, it was 3pm on March 15th, had been snowing 2"/hr all day and we dropped down the glades from the ridge and there was one point where I made a couple turns and did not feel anything underneath no matter how much I tried to dig in.  Its a very odd sensation and definitely had a brief momentary panic like, ok, if I fall right now there is an actual non-zero chance that I could drown if I land in a weird position or somehow get on my back or upside down. 

Because when you can't push off of something solid, you won't get up.  You can push all you want but if its just fluffy snow you are basically just extending your arm into the snowpack and it gives no resistance.  It is a terrifying thought. 

These two photos were taken during that last run when I had a little freak out, lol.  I mean you could literally just dive headfirst into this with no issues except you may not come back out.

 

[powderfreak]

36 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Wow PF.  Didn't realize it was so localized.  I don't follow the VT postings super closely so just figured the whole N Spine area was white with the impressive amounts higher up but a fairly large area of winter type landscape.  Maybe by later next week we can all share some of that love....

If Alex at 1,500ft in Bretton Woods doesn't have cover, I'm going to bet most of the mountain valleys around here don't.  There's still patchy snow here and there (like cold spots around a wetland or plow pile at the end of my driveway) but its been just warm enough to take away the consistent cover below 1,000ft locally and it happened in the last 36 hours for the most part.

Like J.Spin said in his monthly summary though, this November had an abundant amount of days with snow on the ground, I feel like there was at least white out there (even if a few grass blades poked through) for half the month of November.

[Hitman]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's pretty much hitting that point.  Out west its a bit different if you are in a wide open bowl or something but in the trees in the east, when you can't see because of the depth of the snow you've got a problem as those hardwoods come fast. 

That storm is the first time I ever remember having a mini-moment of panic because of snow depth.  It was in our minds as before that earlier in the winter a college student had died (drowned) when he fell and got upside down in the fluffy snow during that 108" in 24 day stretch.   But I still remember, it was 3pm on March 15th, had been snowing 2"/hr all day and we dropped down the glades from the ridge and there was one point where I made a couple turns and did not feel anything underneath no matter how much I tried to dig in.  Its a very odd sensation and definitely had a brief momentary panic like, ok, if I fall right now there is an actual non-zero chance that I could drown if I land in a weird position or somehow get on my back or upside down. 

Because when you can't push off of something solid, you won't get up.  You can push all you want but if its just fluffy snow you are basically just extending your arm into the snowpack and it gives no resistance.  It is a terrifying thought. 

These two photos were taken during that last run when I had a little freak out, lol.  I mean you could literally just dive headfirst into this with no issues except you may not come back out.

 

Give me a snorkel and I’ll try and deal.

[dendrite]

4 hours ago, Hitman said:

Give me a snorkel and I’ll try and deal.

Snowkel?

I have a marketing idea now...

[dendrite]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's pretty much hitting that point.  Out west its a bit different if you are in a wide open bowl or something but in the trees in the east, when you can't see because of the depth of the snow you've got a problem as those hardwoods come fast. 

That storm is the first time I ever remember having a mini-moment of panic because of snow depth.  It was in our minds as before that earlier in the winter a college student had died (drowned) when he fell and got upside down in the fluffy snow during that 108" in 24 day stretch.   But I still remember, it was 3pm on March 15th, had been snowing 2"/hr all day and we dropped down the glades from the ridge and there was one point where I made a couple turns and did not feel anything underneath no matter how much I tried to dig in.  Its a very odd sensation and definitely had a brief momentary panic like, ok, if I fall right now there is an actual non-zero chance that I could drown if I land in a weird position or somehow get on my back or upside down. 

Because when you can't push off of something solid, you won't get up.  You can push all you want but if its just fluffy snow you are basically just extending your arm into the snowpack and it gives no resistance.  It is a terrifying thought. 

These two photos were taken during that last run when I had a little freak out, lol.  I mean you could literally just dive headfirst into this with no issues except you may not come back out.

 

Good explanation. I assume you basically needed to know these trails like the back of your hand that day. I would've ended up like Sonny Bono after one turn.

[Ginx snewx]

7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's pretty much hitting that point.  Out west its a bit different if you are in a wide open bowl or something but in the trees in the east, when you can't see because of the depth of the snow you've got a problem as those hardwoods come fast. 

That storm is the first time I ever remember having a mini-moment of panic because of snow depth.  It was in our minds as before that earlier in the winter a college student had died (drowned) when he fell and got upside down in the fluffy snow during that 108" in 24 day stretch.   But I still remember, it was 3pm on March 15th, had been snowing 2"/hr all day and we dropped down the glades from the ridge and there was one point where I made a couple turns and did not feel anything underneath no matter how much I tried to dig in.  Its a very odd sensation and definitely had a brief momentary panic like, ok, if I fall right now there is an actual non-zero chance that I could drown if I land in a weird position or somehow get on my back or upside down. 

Because when you can't push off of something solid, you won't get up.  You can push all you want but if its just fluffy snow you are basically just extending your arm into the snowpack and it gives no resistance.  It is a terrifying thought. 

These two photos were taken during that last run when I had a little freak out, lol.  I mean you could literally just dive headfirst into this with no issues except you may not come back out.

 

I know exactly what you just described,  great description. Think it was Cannon where I literally got in over my head, maybe 71? I was just 14 and reckless and didn't fall but with the snow over my head and no bottom on my skis I got a pit in my stomach. 

[Hitman]

9 hours ago, dendrite said:

Snowkel?

I have a marketing idea now...

You might be on to something.  Think we can get something to market before this upcoming pattern makes Stella look like a dusting?  

My daughter has one them 3D printers at school.

[Lava Rock]

What happened to the rain to snow deal on Wednesday? Just seeing rain now. Local met was saying up to 4".

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[powderfreak]

Everyone in the main thread looking for the next big deal but what might get interesting is the length of WSW flow off even CAA on SW flow from the Great Lakes into NNE.

These types of days have fun squalls written all over them and all the major models have days of similar cold flow on a west/southwest axis.

Take a look as simple as this for 00z Thur to 00z Fri and the mountains get 3-6".  I think we could have a bunch of those type set-ups coming up...as the bands oscillate north and south off Lake Ontario. 

Fast flow everyone is talking about helps a lot, too...it gets that moisture way downstream.

 

[dendrite]

4 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

What happened to the rain to snow deal on Wednesday? Just seeing rain now. Local met was saying up to 4".

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Not happening James. 

[Hitman]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Everyone in the main thread looking for the next big deal but what might get interesting is the length of WSW flow off even CAA on SW flow from the Great Lakes into NNE.

These types of days have fun squalls written all over them and all the major models have days of similar cold flow on a west/southwest axis.

Take a look as simple as this for 00z Thur to 00z Fri and the mountains get 3-6".  I think we could have a bunch of those type set-ups coming up...as the bands oscillate north and south off Lake Ontario. 

Fast flow everyone is talking about helps a lot, too...it gets that moisture way downstream.

 

Tug hill?  

[J.Spin]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Everyone in the main thread looking for the next big deal but what might get interesting is the length of WSW flow off even CAA on SW flow from the Great Lakes into NNE.

These types of days have fun squalls written all over them and all the major models have days of similar cold flow on a west/southwest axis.

Take a look as simple as this for 00z Thur to 00z Fri and the mountains get 3-6".  I think we could have a bunch of those type set-ups coming up...as the bands oscillate north and south off Lake Ontario. 

Fast flow everyone is talking about helps a lot, too...it gets that moisture way downstream.

 

Hehe, nice PF, I’ve been noticing that on the models as well.  I checked on some of my old posts on the topic:

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/45311-nne-winter-2014-2015-thread-part-2/?do=findComment&comment=3243188

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/45311-nne-winter-2014-2015-thread-part-2/?do=findComment&comment=3245179

 

…and it looks like 250-260° wind flow is what we’ll want to watch for.  Sometimes the BTV NWS will mention it in their forecast discussion as well.

 

 

Even if the forecast moisture/amounts are light, we know what can happen along the spine.  It looks like November 2014 was when we had those back-to-back LES accumulations in the area – it looks like Tuesday 11/18 into Wednesday 11/19 was the first event, and that was followed up by the second one on Friday 11/21.

 

Checking my detailed reports, it looks like Mansfield picked up about a foot of snow in each case – good stuff:

 

 

 

 

I love this quote from my report on the second event:

 

“It was even more surprising though when the same thing happened again yesterday, just two days after the first event. The lake-effect snows were essentially over by that point, so it’s hard to figure out exactly where that moisture had come from.”

 

[J.Spin]

22 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Bare ground here too...snow depth goes from 0" at 700ft....to maybe 1" at 1000ft to 7" at 1500ft.  Very sharp gradient in that final mile or two going to the ski resort.

I had someone from Philly comment on that riding the lift today...they were like we drove up and started to get nervous until we were literally pulling in and the place is all white, snowbanks on the sides of the roads, etc.  Localized winter in a small postage stamp sized area of New England, lol.

 

21 hours ago, powderfreak said:

If Alex at 1,500ft in Bretton Woods doesn't have cover, I'm going to bet most of the mountain valleys around here don't.  There's still patchy snow here and there (like cold spots around a wetland or plow pile at the end of my driveway) but its been just warm enough to take away the consistent cover below 1,000ft locally and it happened in the last 36 hours for the most part.

Like J.Spin said in his monthly summary though, this November had an abundant amount of days with snow on the ground, I feel like there was at least white out there (even if a few grass blades poked through) for half the month of November.

 

Yeah, we’ve still got some natural snow hanging on here in spots sheltered from the north.  I will say, it’s pretty amazing the staying power that the snow has at this latitude with the sun angle this time of year.  And the snow we’ve got isn’t super dense springtime pack that wintered over, it’s recent stuff that’s just had some freeze/thaws and consolidated a bit, but it sure seems to hang around in the shade.

 

Checking my weather data, mean/median snowpack depth here for this date is 1.3”/1.0”, and we’re right in the typical window of our mean winter snowpack start date (actually, 12/3 was the start of the winter snowpack here last season).

 

As you mentioned though, it’s the mountains that really have the snowpack right now of course.  A check on the Mt. Mansfield Stake Data shows that the depth there is actually a few inches ahead of average, and very similar to where we were last season at this time: