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NNE Fall Thread


powderfreak

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45 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

J.Spin and PF, which radar do you guys use for those images?

 

For close up radar images around the Northern Greens, I use the Weather Underground BTV radar, and I generally go with Composite Reflectivity, since that brings in data from all the reflectivity angles and can help with respect to the beam being blocked by terrain.  I often use it in winter mode for precipitation types, but sometimes I’ll turn that off if I’m looking for db values because the colors in the regular mode (greens, with yellow and orange for stronger signals) make it easier to pick out high db areas if they are of interest.

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6 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

For close up radar images around the Northern Greens, I use the Weather Underground BTV radar, and I generally go with Composite Reflectivity, since that brings in data from all the reflectivity angles and can help with respect to the beam being blocked by terrain.  I often use it in winter mode for precipitation types, but sometimes I’ll turn that off if I’m looking for db values because the colors in the regular mode (greens, with yellow and orange for stronger signals) make it easier to pick out high db areas if they are of interest.

Ditto. I use both the composite and the 2.4 degree scan. 

Curious how long this lingers today. Some drier air SHOULD be inbound this afternoon. Right now feels a lot drier in BTV than it did two hours ago

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

00z run last night had 0.80" for MWN through 18z today. So far 0.18" (2.9" snow). 

I would rather get snow amounts right by adjusting snow ratio, than having artificially high QPF. 

I was talking about the 18-24 in the Greens they were saying wouldn't happen James, didn't even look at QPF myself

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was talking about the 18-24 in the Greens they were saying wouldn't happen James, didn't even look at QPF myself

I'm not saying there wasn't good potential for upslope in the Greens (though I don't think anyone is pushing 2 feet yet right?).

The QPF is still garbage. Maybe @powderfreak can chip in with the QPF so far, but the 3km was edging towards 1.00" for Mansfield and all the highest elevations of the Greens (hard to tell since WeatherBell doesn't have a point on the spine). My guess is they are falling short of that. 

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13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

00z run last night had 0.80" for MWN through 18z today. So far 0.18" (2.9" snow). 

I would rather get snow amounts right by adjusting snow ratio, than having artificially high QPF. 

 

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm not saying there wasn't good potential for upslope in the Greens (though I don't think anyone is pushing 2 feet yet right?).

The QPF is still garbage. Maybe @powderfreak can chip in with the QPF so far, but the 3km was edging towards 1.00" for Mansfield and all the highest elevations of the Greens (hard to tell since WeatherBell doesn't have a point on the spine). My guess is they are falling short of that. 

IDK what qpf today is, yesterday Mansfield report .71, can't see todays. Jay might legit have near 2

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19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice, never heard, did that Oct 29th storm do much damage in the skiable woods there. Maybe an optical illusion but Stowe might want to cut down that eyeball remover

It's well above my head. No worries on that tree. 

Hard to say as to the woods. For Stowe proper the woods look fine. For other places, we'll see. I know I'm approaching some locales with extreme caution. 

 

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm not saying there wasn't good potential for upslope in the Greens (though I don't think anyone is pushing 2 feet yet right?).

The QPF is still garbage. Maybe @powderfreak can chip in with the QPF so far, but the 3km was edging towards 1.00" for Mansfield and all the highest elevations of the Greens (hard to tell since WeatherBell doesn't have a point on the spine). My guess is they are falling short of that. 

I think the greens are pushing an inch of water ...or more. Lotta moisture in the snow yesterday and today was pretty velvety as well. 

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

0.71"? Well then that place is magic. I'm still going with right for the wrong reasons, because it is off at MWN by a whole order of magnitude. 

That included about a tenth of non accumulating sleety stuff I think from that FROPA band. But then 6" of 10:1.  There was a fair amount of graupel.  That was yesterday at 4pm for the previous 24 hours.  Tonight's will be interesting.

Today I bet it's like 0.4" for like 9".  The NAM had 1.3" or something.  HRRR had .3-.4".  This second round has been more like 20:1 fluff.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That included about a tenth of non accumulating sleety stuff I think from that FROPA band. But then 6" of 10:1.  There was a fair amount of graupel.  That was yesterday at 4pm for the previous 24 hours.  Tonight's will be interesting.

Today I bet it's like 0.4" for like 9".  The NAM had 1.3" or something.  HRRR had .3-.4".  This second round has been more like 20:1 fluff.

In our forecasts there are basically two ways to force changes in snowfall, since models don't explicitly forecast snowfall.

One is adjust the QPF up. More QPF is more snow. The other is adjust the snow ratio. At least the snow ratio can have some science behind it, rather than just adjusting up. So that's my preferred method. Plus it is more accurate for snow melt run off models, etc.

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31 minutes ago, adk said:

It's well above my head. No worries on that tree. 

Hard to say as to the woods. For Stowe proper the woods look fine. For other places, we'll see. I know I'm approaching some locales with extreme caution. 

 

I think the greens are pushing an inch of water ...or more. Lotta moisture in the snow yesterday and today was pretty velvety as well. 

Yeah for the 2-day two events that sounds right.

 

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