NNE Fall Thread

[powderfreak]

10 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys get so defensive of the fluff. I'm kidding. 

Haha, right after a page of posts about how dense like-sand the upslope was yesterday.   

Let it snow any type it wants.  I don't discriminate.  Sand or fluff.

[powderfreak]

11 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Yes,  I get real snow and real cold.  Not that weenie upslope fluff but the staying power durable real deal.  Also not that fake radiational cooling lowest 50 feet of the atmosphere either.  Watch my CAD too, like this weekend.  Unless that low to the NW has real power I'll be stuck near 40F while areas around me bake well into the 40's or higher....

My snow is better than your snow.  My 32F is more meaningful than your 32F.  

You love your fake cold, what are you talking about?!...CAD just like that low level cold on rad nights.  So localized to the lower levels.  Not like that man cold on gusty NW winds .

[dendrite]

Stardot black Friday deals are up. Netcam Live is half off...stream directly to youtube with just an internet connection. Other good deals too if you want to go the Stardot route. Their prices tend to run high so this is the only time I ever consider puchasing their products.

http://www.stardot-tech.com/blackfriday.html

[alex]

Fake cold low of 7.7 with some semi-fake cloudy sky at the moment. Ski area is pumping fake snow like it's a blizzard. Getting ready for tonight's not so fake rain? 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, alex said:

Fake cold low of 7.7 with some semi-fake cloudy sky at the moment. Ski area is pumping fake snow like it's a blizzard. Getting ready for tonight's not so fake rain? 

That's called non-crystalline precipitation to the ski areas. Or, they just say a chance of a shower.    

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That's called non-crystalline precipitation to the ski areas. Or, they just say a chance of a shower.    

Hey now.  Most of us will be saying its going to rain tonight and tomorrow, then temps will drop like a rock with wind.

Of course, you could also just ignore it all together and make it look snowy this weekend despite a half inch of rain .

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hey now.  Most of us will be saying its going to rain tonight and tomorrow, then temps will drop like a rock with wind.

Of course, you could also just ignore it all together and make it look snowy this weekend despite a half inch of rain .

Yeah, F Jay Peak. What bastards. You guys are definitely honest...but Jay Peak is an absolute joke. 

[alex]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, F Jay Peak. What bastards. You guys are definitely honest...but Jay Peak is an absolute joke. 

Haha yes I was there for a weekend last year. We got a windswept flurry and their report was 4" or something like that. It was a sheet of ice

[CoastalWx]

Just now, alex said:

Haha yes I was there for a weekend last year. We got a windswept flurry and their report was 4" or something like that. It was a sheet of ice

I will give PF credit because he's very methodical in how he reports snow..and really is enthusiastic. If he says they got 16", they got 16". He's a great observer and knows hos stuff.  But it is hard for me to buy into a lot of ski area snow reports. Jay Peak is the lead offender. It's so bad. 

[eyewall]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will give PF credit because he's very methodical in how he reports snow..and really is enthusiastic. If he says they got 16", they got 16". He's a great observer and knows hos stuff.  But it is hard for me to buy into a lot of ski area snow reports. Jay Peak is the lead offender. It's so bad. 

Certainly Powder's reports are very reliable and I feel Smuggs and Bolton are solid as well. 

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will give PF credit because he's very methodical in how he reports snow..and really is enthusiastic. If he says they got 16", they got 16". He's a great observer and knows hos stuff.  But it is hard for me to buy into a lot of ski area snow reports. Jay Peak is the lead offender. It's so bad. 

Thanks.  I just have a great respect for the science of meteorology.  Obviously on a mountain that spans thousands of vertical feet and miles from one side to the other, there's going to be some variation.  But I think that can be removed by at least being consistent in where you take the measurement.  Of course, I could go around and find the absolute highest snow amount I can (which as adk and J.Spin know well, it can vary from trail to trail sometimes).  I think that's how I gained the NWS trust at BTV over the years from just seeing photo after photo with my snowfall totals of the same location with the same equipment (I always send a pic with my readings usually). 

Now snow reports are still a marketing tool so it is worth it to read it with a grain of salt, but I know I've gained the trust of the local crowd here that when they see 5" at the base and 8" on the upper mountain...that they are going to find 5" in the parking lot and AT LEAST 8" up top.  A few years ago there was the "Braaten Six" was a thing...because I would under-report the 6am summit total constantly (if I don't know for sure, I'm low-balling it).  If the snow report said 6" people were finding 8"/10"/12" and it happened often enough that the rule was if I put up a 6-spot on the morning report, you drop what you are doing because its going to be at least 6" and could even be 12", just that no one has been able to check the upper mountain plot so its an under-estimation.

The main thing is, you can build trust for years and years...but one bad biff up (like claiming 8" when there's 4-5") and you've lost it.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Certainly Powder's reports are very reliable and I feel Smuggs and Bolton are solid as well. 

I agree with that.  I don't know what their methodology is but I've never had any issue with their snowfall totals.  I think those 3 ski areas Bolton/Stowe/Smuggs are often very close, with customary differences in events that make sense....ie. Bolton gets lit up on a western slope special or Mansfield just has a big night once in a while or Smuggs gets a good blocked NNW flow that catches every flake.

[eyewall]

Had some sleet/graupel with the first bit of rain here.

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[J.Spin]

I was up in the higher elevations around here today, so I’ll pass along some snow observations.  I’d say I’m more intrigued by this next system than I was before my trip.  I figured the snowpack was pretty meager and it wouldn’t take much rain to really melt it back, but after actually getting up there I found that the mountain snowpack is much more substantial than I thought, and it will be able to actually soak up some rain.

 

With even NVT getting into the warm sector for a time with this next system, I headed up for a ski tour at Bolton Valley this morning because it seemed the best part of the day to catch some winter snow before temperatures affected it.  At the base of the Bolton Valley Access Road (340’) the snow depth is similar to what we’ve got here at the house – generally 1 to 2 inches.  As the recent snow reports from the local ski resorts suggested, there wasn’t a massive increase in snowfall amounts with elevation from our storm earlier this week.  Snow depths increased slowly as I headed up the access road, with about 2” at the Bolton Valley Welcome Sign (1,000’), 2-3” at the Timberline Base (1,500’), and then 3-4” around 2,000’ in the Bolton Valley Village.

 

I figured that was going to be about it based on the snow report from earlier in the week, but either they had a bit more base in place than I’d though ahead of this week’s storm, or they under-reported the accumulations a bit, because there was a nice additional increase between 2,000’ and 2,500’.  I had planned for a quick tour up to ~2,500’ based on what I thought I’d find for snow, but the snowpack was substantial enough that I ended up touring all the way up to 3,000’.  Below I’ve got a summary of what I saw for snow depths with respect to elevation:

 

340’: 1-2”

1,000’: 2”

1,500’: 2-3”

2,000’: 3-4”

2,500’: 6-7”

3,000’: 7”

 

There was a crust on the snow in places, and I couldn’t figure out the trend in its distribution for a while, but I eventually figured out that areas with the most northwest exposure had the most crust.  The crust wasn’t actually too thick, so it was still fairly easy to ski the snow there, but there’s no doubt that the very best turns were in the crust-free zones – the snow was smooth, mid-weight powder in those areas.

 

I’ve added some pictures from today’s tour below:

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

15 hours ago, dendrite said:

Stardot black Friday deals are up. Netcam Live is half off...stream directly to youtube with just an internet connection. Other good deals too if you want to go the Stardot route. Their prices tend to run high so this is the only time I ever consider puchasing their products.

http://www.stardot-tech.com/blackfriday.html

Youtube made some changes to their streaming service, which broke our cameras.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

I was up in the higher elevations around here today, so I’ll pass along some snow observations.  I’d say I’m more intrigued by this next system than I was before my trip.  I figured the snowpack was pretty meager and it wouldn’t take much rain to really melt it back, but after actually getting up there I found that the mountain snowpack is much more substantial than I thought, and it will be able to actually soak up some rain.

 

With even NVT getting into the warm sector for a time with this next system, I headed up for a ski tour at Bolton Valley this morning because it seemed the best part of the day to catch some winter snow before temperatures affected it.  At the base of the Bolton Valley Access Road (340’) the snow depth is similar to what we’ve got here at the house – generally 1 to 2 inches.  As the recent snow reports from the local ski resorts suggested, there wasn’t a massive increase in snowfall amounts with elevation from our storm earlier this week.  Snow depths increased slowly as I headed up the access road, with about 2” at the Bolton Valley Welcome Sign (1,000’), 2-3” at the Timberline Base (1,500’), and then 3-4” around 2,000’ in the Bolton Valley Village.

 

I figured that was going to be about it based on the snow report from earlier in the week, but either they had a bit more base in place that I’d though ahead of this week’s storm, or they under-reported the accumulations a bit, because there was a nice additional increase between 2,000’ and 2,500’.  I had planned for a quick tour up to ~2,500’ based on what I thought I’d find for snow, but the snowpack was substantial enough that I ended up touring all the way up to 3,000’.  Below I’ve got a summary of what I saw for snow depths with respect to elevation:

 

340’: 1-2”

1,000’: 2”

1,500’: 2-3”

2,000’: 3-4”

2,500’: 6-7”

3,000’: 7”

 

There was a crust on the snow in places, and I couldn’t figure out the trend in its distribution for a while, but I eventually figured out that areas with the most northwest exposure has the most crust.  The crust wasn’t actually too thick, so it was still fairly easy to ski the snow there, but there’s no doubt that the very best turns were in the crust-free zones – the snow was smooth, mid-weight powder in those areas.

 

I’ve added some pictures from today’s tour below:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nice report J

[dendrite]

48 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Youtube made some changes to their streaming service, which broke our cameras.

lol...yeah I know, but I'm sure they'll work it out. They waited until the last minute to put the sale up. I'd probably wait for an update on it before buying though.

[J.Spin]

9 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice report J

Thanks, it’s nice to get the season of snow reports and wintry pictures underway!

[powderfreak]

That was one of the more impressive FROPAs.

40F to 32F and snow within 8 minutes.  Snowing now at most elevations but more of a "white rain" in the base area.

Edit: Now 30F and free-falling up top.  All snow now.

 

[J.Spin]

The rain changed over to snow down here at 500’ at around 10:25 A.M.

[eyewall]

Yeah it definitely was noticble here as well with a flip to snow.

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[eyewall]

Dusting in Williston.

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[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.64” L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 3.3

Snow Density: 30.0% H2O

Temperature: 33.8 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-4 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: Trace

 

The rain changed quickly over to snow this morning at 10:25 A.M., but the temperature hasn’t dropped below freezing here yet, so accumulations have been fairly slow thus far.

[powderfreak]

A dense 1-2" at Stowe from base to summit.

Snowing steadily but so windy it's not accumulating much.

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

The rain changed quickly over to snow this morning at 10:25 A.M., but the temperature hasn’t dropped below freezing here yet, so accumulations have been fairly slow thus far.

 

Now that we’re down to freezing the snow is accumulating quicker – that’s speaking relatively of course, because the flakes are still very small (1-2 mm) and that really slows accumulation.

[J.Spin]

There’s an interesting look to the radar – you can see the tail end of that frontal passage snow moving off northward up the spine, but you can also see some WNW streamers building in now.  The snow had tapered off with the disappearance of that larger shot of moisture, but flakes are starting to pick up again, so perhaps there will be a bit of snow with this next influx.

 

[powderfreak]

Best accumulations were above 900ft but mostly just the closer to the Spine you got the more precip that fell as snow.

Its still snowing lightly at home but its almost like graupel at times.  Little dippin' dots on the deck.  Only 0.2" at home...precip intensity from the upslope wasn't strong enough here to really over-come the wet ground until it froze.  Up the road from say Topnotch Resort and Spa up to the ski area seemed to have a better pasting.

[powderfreak]

It is only November 19th, but is it already time to break out the "It's good for the base" or "It's a net gain" positivity? Almost an inch of total precipitation, the majority rain, and still an increase in snow depth. Just like the foundation in a house, the best way to run a snowpack is with pure concrete on the bottom. Funny to think we are hopefully building that layer that will still be there in May.

 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.8” Snow/0.71” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.07 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 8.6

Snow Density: 11.7% H2O

Temperature: 30.6 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-4 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

 

The snowfall has dried out some now with consistently sub-freezing temperatures, but it’s still on the dense side up near 12% H2O.

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

It is only November 19th, but is it already time to break out the "It's good for the base" or "It's a net gain" positivity? Almost an inch of total precipitation, the majority rain, and still an increase in snow depth. Just like the foundation in a house, the best way to run a snowpack is with pure concrete on the bottom. Funny to think we are hopefully building that layer that will still be there in May.

 

 

We can certainly have those Novembers where you can’t make gains in the snowpack, but this doesn’t seem to be one of those so far.  We haven’t had any monster snowstorms for the mountains this month, but neither have we had any huge storms cutting to our west with big time rains and warm temperatures.  We couldn’t necessarily call it earlier in the month, but now that we can look back I think we’ve been right on the verge of establishing the winter snowpack over the past week.  I was wondering what this storm was going to do to the pack, until I saw how much snow was on the ground at Bolton yesterday above 2,000’.  That’s what swayed it for me that this storm could be a net gainer above 2,000’ or so, which is why I mentioned that in my update from yesterday.  Checking the SkiVT-L Mt. Mansfield Snow Depth Graph, it seems that 7” of snowpack at the stake is right in line with an “average” progression.

 

Related to the seasonal progression, this has been an interesting fall with respect to getting some of the typical household and yard chores done, and I think it was that combination of extended warmth in October and the sudden change to below average temperatures in November that did it.  Leaf drop seemed delayed with the warmth, so we weren’t able to get to cleaning out the gutters until last weekend, and it was the first time that I can recall having to use hot water to loosen up the leaves and other debris that were frozen solid on the north side.  I’d been waiting on putting in the driveway marking poles until we really needed them, but it’s getting to the point where I’m not sure how many windows with both snow-free and unfrozen ground were going to have to get them in.  With that in mind, we decided that we had to go for it this morning.  The snow had melted back enough to reveal the border of the driveway, which is what we need to get the correct positioning of the poles.  That window closed pretty quickly too – it probably wasn’t more than a half hour after we’d gotten back in that the rain changed over to snow, and now we’re essentially right back where we were before.  It was brutal while we were out there today, with pouring rain in the 30s F and even some wind, but it was starting to feel a bit like it was “now or never” to get the job done.  We’re certainly within the timeframe where the snowpack can start here based on my data, and there aren’t any massive warm-ups in the forecast over the next week.  There also appear to be a number of snow chances similar to what we’ve had, so I guess we’ll see what happens.