NNE Fall Thread

[J.Spin]

23 hours ago, Hitman said:

Give me a snorkel and I’ll try and deal.

 

19 hours ago, dendrite said:

Snowkel?

I have a marketing idea now...

 

10 hours ago, Hitman said:

You might be on to something.  Think we can get something to market before this upcoming pattern makes Stella look like a dusting?  

My daughter has one them 3D printers at school.

 

 

 

 

 

So people have certainly done the snorkel thing, but it’s more for the fun, visual effect, and novelty of it, etc.  From personal experience I can tell you that as long as you have an appropriate neck gaiter/gaiter hood in place you’re all set – it lets air through and filters out the snow crystals.  Neck gaiters are simply way more practical all around because most people already use them for everyday skiing.  The snow that’s actually up in your face in these situations is tremendously airy (it essentially has to be for you to sink into the snow that far and still have enough to billow up over your head), so there’s plenty of air in it to breathe.  As long as there’s enough of it to float you, and sufficient base and/or a gradient of denser snow in place below, super low-density snow provides the quintessential powder skiing experience that you simply can’t get with any other type of snow.  That’s why it’s such a big deal among powder skiers.

[Hitman]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So people have certainly done the snorkel thing, but it’s more for the fun, visual effect, and novelty of it, etc.  From personal experience I can tell you that as long as you have an appropriate neck gaiter/gaiter hood in place you’re all set – it lets air through and filters out the snow crystals.  Neck gaiters are simply way more practical all around because most people already use them for everyday skiing.  The snow that’s actually up in your face in these situations is tremendously airy (it essentially has to be for you to sink into the snow that far and still have enough to billow up over your head), so there’s plenty of air in it to breathe.  As long as there’s enough of it to float you, and sufficient base and/or a gradient of denser snow in place below, super low-density snow provides the quintessential powder skiing experience that you simply can’t get with any other type of snow.  That’s why it’s such a big deal among powder skiers.

Oh yeah, I was just having a little fun.  I wouldn’t even bother putting my balaclava over my mouth.  

Boy, I can’t wait for a powder day.  It’s been a long time since Stella.  My sons studying for the semester in Europe and caught knee deep powder in Innsbruck this weekend.  Steuben glacier ftw.

[eyewall]

Bolton Valley from a distance while flying over the Greens this morning. I love the range on the Mavic Pro (Ansel Adams style):

[adk]

That stake data is interesting for 2016-17. The season really fell off a cliff in late Feb. I had forgotten about that period.  But now thinking back I think BTV hit like  or close to it 70F sometime in late Feb.

I'll also note that Stella added more depth to the snow pack than there was depth at any point in 2015-2016.....

[alex]

On 12/2/2017 at 4:41 PM, wxeyeNH said:

Wow PF.  Didn't realize it was so localized.  I don't follow the VT postings super closely so just figured the whole N Spine area was white with the impressive amounts higher up but a fairly large area of winter type landscape.  Maybe by later next week we can all share some of that love....

I miss my fake snow. This is the longest stretch of bare ground in a long time. Also, annoyingly there is decent cover just a few hundred feet higher, and the Notch has a decent pack. Hopefully things will change soon!

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, adk said:

That stake data is interesting for 2016-17. The season really fell off a cliff in late Feb. I had forgotten about that period.  But now thinking back I think BTV hit like  or close to it 70F sometime in late Feb.

I'll also note that Stella added more depth to the snow pack than there was depth at any point in 2015-2016.....

 

Yeah, at some point ahead of that warm spell you had pointed out the potential for record-challenging snowpack depths, and you can see how things certainly could have been close without that big snowpack consolidation:

 

 

There’s no doubt about the greatness of Winter Storm Stella; it rocked in many ways.  We were long overdue for a synoptic storm of that magnitude hitting us in this area, and it was a great shot in the arm with respect to the path toward some 2015-2016 redemption.

[J.Spin]

21 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Everyone in the main thread looking for the next big deal but what might get interesting is the length of WSW flow off even CAA on SW flow from the Great Lakes into NNE.

These types of days have fun squalls written all over them and all the major models have days of similar cold flow on a west/southwest axis.

Fast flow everyone is talking about helps a lot, too...it gets that moisture way downstream.

 

I just stopped in at the BTV NWS homepage and saw that Winter Storm Watches are already up in the lee of Lake Ontario, so I guess we really are getting close on this next cooldown.  We’ll just have to see where and to what extent anything sets up, but I grabbed some related text from the latest BTV NWS forecast discussion:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

647 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

 

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 349 AM EST Monday...Cold air aloft will have moved into the region on Wednesday with flow aloft remaining from the southwest...which should allow for some lake effect snow from Lake Ontario to move into northern New York and northwest Vermont.

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 349 AM EST Monday...Large upper trough exists over eastern Canada and the Northeast leaving the area in southwest flow aloft. Once again colder air aloft combined with the southwest flow aloft will keep lake effect snow from Lake Ontario going and should keep the threat of snow showers going over portions of northern New York and the northern half of Vermont right through Friday.  

[backedgeapproaching]

There is a reality show filming here outside all day tomorrow for a "winter themed" special that is going to air during the '18 Winter Olympics. Nothing screams deep, deep winter like  15mph SSE winds, 50F and mod-heavy rain all day  Hope for their sake the heavy stuff holds off to later in day.

[OceanStWx]

2 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

I just stopped in at the BTV NWS homepage and saw that Winter Storm Watches are already up in the lee of Lake Ontario, so I guess we really are getting close on this next cooldown.  We’ll just have to see where and to what extent anything sets up, but I grabbed some related text from the latest BTV NWS forecast discussion:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

647 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

 

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 349 AM EST Monday...Cold air aloft will have moved into the region on Wednesday with flow aloft remaining from the southwest...which should allow for some lake effect snow from Lake Ontario to move into northern New York and northwest Vermont.

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 349 AM EST Monday...Large upper trough exists over eastern Canada and the Northeast leaving the area in southwest flow aloft. Once again colder air aloft combined with the southwest flow aloft will keep lake effect snow from Lake Ontario going and should keep the threat of snow showers going over portions of northern New York and the northern half of Vermont right through Friday.  

No more Lake Effect Snow Watch. And I think Central Region got rid of Lake Effect Snow Warning too.

[dendrite]

Hey Chris,

I know you guys are trying to thread the MHT history together, but have you ever compared some of those days with the CON data? Some of those MHT records seem way off from the CON ones. MHT has a 36F on 7/22/1937 and CON had 85/52 that day. MHT had -4F for a high on 1/12/1886 and CON had +9F. There's probably a lot more in there, but I only picked some of those MHT records in threadex that jumped out. I know that was before the UHI existed, but I find a lot of these discrepancies unexplainable.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Hey Chris,

I know you guys are trying to thread the MHT history together, but have you ever compared some of those days with the CON data? Some of those MHT records seem way off from the CON ones. MHT has a 36F on 7/22/1937 and CON had 85/52 that day. MHT had -4F for a high on 1/12/1886 and CON had +9F. There's probably a lot more in there, but I only picked some of those MHT records in threadex that jumped out. I know that was before the UHI existed, but I find a lot of these discrepancies unexplainable.

I believe we were shooting for starting their POR at 1948.

But just looking at the Coop form for that month, it is listed as 36 for the daily range with the low crossed out for some reason. But a daily range of 36 would be a low of 50. That seems more in line with CON.

That's the problem with backfilling this data, a lot of potential issues to comb through.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I believe we were shooting for starting their POR at 1948.

But just looking at the Coop form for that month, it is listed as 36 for the daily range with the low crossed out for some reason. But a daily range of 36 would be a low of 50. That seems more in line with CON.

That's the problem with backfilling this data, a lot of potential issues to comb through.

I think that would be a better bet and to let the pre-1948 stuff sit out there in unofficialville.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

I think that would be a better bet and to let the pre-1948 stuff sit out there in unofficialville.

I wish we did have the initiative here to certify that data, but I really don't know the ins and outs of the process and whether it is too much of a time sink to take on. It is a shame to have it all sitting there and doing nothing for us.

[dendrite]

34 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I wish we did have the initiative here to certify that data, but I really don't know the ins and outs of the process and whether it is too much of a time sink to take on. It is a shame to have it all sitting there and doing nothing for us.

You mean the 1948-1998 obs?

I swear MHT used to run a good 3F warmer than CON on max temps in the 1990s and I almost never saw them report an hourly temp lower than CON. It took an MHT TS to pull it off. Still, they were at least consistent and considering they only reported hourly their max temps are probably close to what the daily max would be thanks to the torchy bias. I grew up near Massabesic Lake in Auburn and I would pull mins almost 10F colder than them though...sometimes even cooler than CON.

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You mean the 1948-1998 obs?

I swaer MHT used to run a good 3F warmer than CON on max temps in the 1990s and I almost never saw them report an hourly temp lower than CON. It took an MHT TS to pull it off. Still, they were at least consistent and considering they only reported hourly their max temps are probably close to what the daily max would be thanks to the torchy bias. I grew up near Massabesic Lake in Auburn and I would pull mins almost 10F colder than them though...sometimes even cooler than CON.

Not just the 1948-1998 stuff, but back farther than that. We just need the willpower to put up with the red tape from NCEI.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Looking a bit dry n boring up at the picnic tables

The squalls went bye bye for later wed/thurs. Hoping that changes

[J.Spin]

I’ve got the latest BTV NWS forecast discussion with thoughts on the snow potential over the next few days.  It doesn’t appear to be such a potent LES outbreak (perhaps due to temperatures) that substantial amounts of precipitation are expected this far downstream, but there’s definitely some potential for flakes through Friday in NVT, and we know what can happen when you get the Green Mountain Spine and moisture together.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

716 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 352 AM EST Tuesday...Southwest flow becomes established over the area and with colder air aloft moving across the Great Lakes region...lake effect snow should develop downstream across parts of northern New York and the northern half of Vermont. At this time best chance for accumulating snow will be across northern New York...mainly south and east of Highway 11 over southeast Saint Lawrence County and the central and southern sections of Franklin County New York. This area may see 1 to 3 inches of snow with some higher amounts over the far southern portions of Saint Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York. Any lake effect that makes it into northern Vermont should generally result in snow amounts of an inch or less. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 30s to around 40.

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 352 AM EST Tuesday...Still looking at lake effect snows for parts of northern New York and northern Vermont Thursday night into Friday...but flow aloft will gradually be backing more to the south on Friday and this should start to concentrate any lake effect snows across parts of Saint Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York before coming to an end later Friday night.

[alex]

Definitely some boring times if we're excited about 1-3" of LES!!! Hopefully it will change. To my untrained eye, there seems to be a huge amount of variability in the ensembles for the next 10 days, but the GFS OP is a snooze fest... 

[eyewall]

This wind advisory event is definitely on the meh side. The FROPA the other day was far more impressive.

[Hitman]

2 hours ago, alex said:

Definitely some boring times if we're excited about 1-3" of LES!!! Hopefully it will change. To my untrained eye, there seems to be a huge amount of variability in the ensembles for the next 10 days, but the GFS OP is a snooze fest... 

The calm before the storm.  patience.

[wxeyeNH]

It's not going to happen and its 8 days out but take a look at the Euro and the storm that forms and moves up off the coast and hooks back north of Maine.  945mb just north of Caribou.  Don't see a progged pressure that low too often.

[Lava Rock]

6 hours ago, alex said:

Definitely some boring times if we're excited about 1-3" of LES!!! Hopefully it will change. To my untrained eye, there seems to be a huge amount of variability in the ensembles for the next 10 days, but the GFS OP is a snooze fest... 

I'd gladly take 1" otg right now. We need some festive snows.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

It's not going to happen and its 8 days out but take a look at the Euro and the storm that forms and moves up off the coast and hooks back north of Maine.  945mb just north of Caribou.  Don't see a progged pressure that low too often.

Especially as their lowest on record is 957, pretty impressive anyway, Feb. 2, 1976.  (The storm that drowned BGR)

[backedgeapproaching]

Looks like over 1" on the day. ALY at only .17 and DDH .21" and RUT at .36"

Not sure why the large discrepancy as it's not convective hit or miss, must be some oragraphic influence in play.

[alex]

15 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

I'd gladly take 1" otg right now. We need some festive snows.

Oh now it's no longer "Fake Snow" huh???

I miss my fake snow very much. This is getting annoying... 

[Lava Rock]

what's so exciting about seasonal temps and no "real" snow chances into next week? Some are saying "best" december in years, yet middle of the month is next week and we've had little cold and virtually no snow.

[backedgeapproaching]

1.55" of wasted QPF 

Lets see what materializes next week and towards the second half of DEC.

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, alex said:

I miss my fake snow very much.

 

Today was the first time in almost a month that I actually had to put a zero in the “Total Snow Depth” category for my morning CoCoRaHS report, since as expected, the rain was enough to finish off the remaining natural snow in the yard.  I did actually find some snow present underneath one of my ground-based snowboards when I moved it this morning, but that was definitely insulated by the presence of the board, so I can’t consider it natural.

 

We’ll be getting more snow at some point here; it’s December in NNE, so it’s going to happen eventually.  It’s interesting to note though, since it now hasn’t snowed at our site in over a week, the small surplus of seasonal snowfall that we built up during November is about to be eaten up.  If there’s no new accumulation by tomorrow, we’ll actually start to fall behind average pace.  Mean daily snowfall here (and I’m guessing at your site as well) is roughly an inch a day now that we’re into December, and it ramps up even more as we head through the month.  That season snowfall average moves onward pretty quickly, and of course it never pauses to take a break.

 

I hadn’t realized it until today, but in terms of December, we’ve now pretty much spent the first week without any new snow, so with respect to monthly snowfall, that's 7 to 8 inches that would have to be made up down the line if the month is going to be average.  It’s actually been five seasons since we’ve had a strong (or even average) December here (December 2012 with 49.5”) so perhaps we’re due, but Mother Nature has dug a bit of a snowfall hole in this first week.

[J.Spin]

I was surprised at the radar activity that’s shown in NNY heading into northwest Vermont, and I figured the air was just too dry for any actual precipitation at this point, but I can actually see the first hints of snow crashing out along the western slopes near the Nose of Mt. Mansfield.  Looking northward up the spine it’s even more obscured.  This is actually where a live webcam at Jay Peak would really be nice – it’s a shame that the snowiest ski resort in the east is not embracing that sort of thing yet.

 

[wxeyeNH]

1.00" rain.  High temp got up to 47F last night.

Sun coming out.  

J Spin.   A good quality webcam for Jay Peak would cost $200 to setup.  Ski resorts like Loon really don't have any good setup either.  I think they must not want to show the public what is actually going on.  Perhaps I understand for Loon but with Jay being in the snowglobe I would think they would want to show it off?!