Christmas Storm IV

[tnweathernut]

Nail all the way in? Come on? You do not think its possible the GFS or GGEM cant shift a little further west in the amount of time left?

Not saying that, but for the midsouth, and mountains.........the GFS and GGEm would have to come a lot more west. Still possible to get a little I'd say, but big storm, not so much. Just my opinion though.

[FoothillsNC]

at 30 its the same it looks like. Opened up wave south of the 4 corners. By 36 hours, its in central NM

[strongwxnc]

This morning AFD from KGSP was talking about low end amounts. Which most would be happy with. But......

Not saying that, but for the midsouth, and mountains.........the GFS and GGEm would have to come a lot more west. Still possible to get a little I'd say, but big storm, not so much. Just my opinion though.

[Wow]

same at 36

[CaryWx]

For what it's worth here...they are briming roads in Cary, NC

[Wow]

42.. HP nosing in further south a bit more

[FoothillsNC]

at 48, its nearly closed off over the Tex. panhandle. If I recall the earlier run had it fully closed? Still a minor difference just going by the 6 hour increments.

[Wow]

same position at 48.. still opened.. had closed contour on 0z by this time, but looks to occur right after this

[tarheelwx]

MTC. For inland NC and SC, the GFS is EXACTLY where you want it. It couldn't be better.

TW

[wake4est]

For what it's worth here...they are briming roads in Cary, NC

Yeah, the front of my black Chevy Trailblazer is now painted white after driving a half-mile behind a brining truck this morning in Cary.

[jburns]

For what it's worth here...they are briming roads in Cary, NC

Probably has more to do with not wanting to work Christmas eve and Christmas than anything else.

[Cheeznado]

48 very similar. Different than the GFS. less positively tilted

[Wow]

s/w a hair north a 54 compared to 0z. strength identical. it's cut off now.

[FoothillsNC]

at 54, its closed again between amarillo and Witchita Falls Tx. I like the looks of the split in the flow and teh amplitude of the building PNA ridge, as well as the structure of the southern shortwave.

[phil882]

The two things we want to watch are intensity of s/w and position. Anything further south and weaker is bad, while further north and stronger is generally a good trend. Thus far we are slightly further south and slightly weaker with the s/w... so unless this changes before the period we are all interested in, I think we will have a slightly less amplified solution.

[Wow]

a touch slower at 60.. so that's good

[FoothillsNC]

at 60, its a good precip event in Ok and northern Texas. Good inverted trough and the low is still closed in Wichita Falls area.

[bingcrosbyb]

60 looking good. Maybe a hair west?

[Wow]

The two things we want to watch are intensity of s/w and position. Anything further south and weaker is bad, while further north and stronger is generally a good trend. Thus far we are slightly further south and slightly weaker with the s/w... so unless this changes before the period we are all interested in, I think we will have a slightly less amplified solution.

it's not further south. strength is near identical

[Cheeznado]

Weaker at 60, same longitude a bit north. What I do not like is the northern stream, the SW that is supposed to be the phaser is a bit weaker/slower

[FoothillsNC]

heavy rain in eastern Tx at 66 and snow in northern Ark. I'd like to see a little more ridging in the Canada area though, but the southern wve is still closed north of Dallas.

[Stormsfury]

I know that one, but I thought there was also one outside the short range

I am pretty positive they removed the truncation that used to exist from 84 to 192 and it's just one truncation period from 192 beyond.

The old truncation periods were truncate at 84, truncate at 192.

[Wow]

Weaker at 60, same longitude a bit north. What I do not like is the northern stream, the SW that is supposed to be the phaser is a bit weaker/slower

yeah it's not bending back into as much... uh oh?

[FoothillsNC]

at 72, strong shrotwave diving into eastern Kansas, low opening up in eastern TEx. Looks like a phaser is likely to me.

[phil882]

it's not further south. strength is near identical

whoops... I was just going off what some of the initial posts were saying. I obviously don't have access

[Cheeznado]

Spoke too soon 72 a lot better, looks like a phase with northern stream SW west of 00Z

[Wow]

ah there it is at 72

[Wow]

at 72, strong shrotwave diving into eastern Kansas, low opening up in eastern TEx. Looks like a phaser is likely to me.

yeah, we've got the 3 waves lined up and ready!

[bingcrosbyb]

Hmmm. Phasing a little west @ 72.

[Wow]

a small hair more west.. but may not matter here