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Christmas Storm IV


Cold Rain

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I'm going to lay out my thoughts after the 12Z Euro today. Its still very early and the only thing that matters are trends at this point. Not exact deterministic solutions. I'll try to lay out the whole play from start Christmas Eve and onward, and for the entire Southeast. Whether its good or bad, so hang in there.

Looking forward to it. After 50+ years in MD/DC/DE I'm accustomed to nor'easters but in my 8 years here in ILM I basically don't see 'em. We get a "baby nor'easter" once in a while, and that's about it. Perhaps we get something exceptional this time?

As for snow..again it's obviously not like the Delaware coast. I've seen measurable snow here only once; and that was 3" (last winter.) Perhaps I may see a bit more soon?

Thank you.

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Quick question if I may ask. Here on the NC/SC border near coast....besides the snow factor...what kinds of winds are you talking in a storm which the EURO or the GFS for that matter is showing? Should there be concerns of losing power? Some posters are talking blizzard like. Would this be like a tropical system in comparison? Thanks in advance.

Pressure for the low offshore are pretty darn low so there would be wind for sure.......I imagine the OBX would get raked hard if the pressure of the low gets to 970ish not sure how bad that would be on the south beaches. If you guys end up with lots of snow and winds then power loss could be a issue.

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Quick question if I may ask. Here on the NC/SC border near coast....besides the snow factor...what kinds of winds are you talking in a storm which the EURO or the GFS for that matter is showing? Should there be concerns of losing power? Some posters are talking blizzard like. Would this be like a tropical system in comparison? Thanks in advance.

I don't recall the exact pressure of the surface low off CHS but it was deepening rapidly, so the winds are definitely going to be a factor where you are if the system does crawl up the coast like the Euro shows. If the phasing truly does occur where the Euro has it , I'd think the pressure will actually be lower than shown right there, but we have to wait to see if the Euro holds its ground or not.

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I was 8yrs old but remember thanks to pictures...may scan one and put it on. Roughly a 6" storm for NW SC

Ye I'd take it!

LOL I was 8 yrs old too, I also have some pics that I need to find showing 6-8 ft drifts, regardless of what that map shows as totals most of NC east of I-95 had 2-3 ft, we couldnt find anywhere less than 20-24" and most places it was deeper than a yardstick.

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I don't recall the exact pressure of the surface low off CHS but it was deepening rapidly, so the winds are definitely going to be a factor where you are if the system does crawl up the coast like the Euro shows. If the phasing truly does occur where the Euro has it , I'd think the pressure will actually be lower than shown right there, but we have to wait to see if the Euro holds its ground or not.

That absolutely amazes me! I have visions of Christmas decorations flying through the air. Scary thought. I would imagine our coast would take a big hit as well. Thanks for answering so quickly. You guys rock!

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That absolutely amazes me! I have visions of Christmas decorations flying through the air. Scary thought. I would imagine our coast would take a big hit as well. Thanks for answering so quickly. You guys rock!

Yeah, while this storm will certainly be fun for the snow lovers, it will be a bad thing for places like Myrtle Beach.

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Do not bother looking at the 12Z Ukie (out to 72) it's very suppressed. Will Dr. No live up to his old moniker, or shed that label for good?

Ugh... now that we are starting to get some convergence that the phase might occur too late, I'm starting to think that the Euro is an outlier. Now that the gfs has given up on its "early phase" solution, it has a much more realistic result, a system that just phases too late offshore. We now need the GFS/Canadian/UKMET to phase about 12 hours earlier than they are currently depicting.

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Ugh... now that we are starting to get some convergence that the phase might occur too late, I'm starting to think that the Euro is an outlier. Now that the gfs has given up on its "early phase" solution, it has a much more realistic result, a system that just phases too late offshore. We now need the GFS/Canadian/UKMET to phase about 12 hours earlier than they are currently depicting.

At 54 hours on the ewall site for the Canadian run you can see the phase. Then it detachable? Is this right?

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I agree with the above statement. It appears as if the phase will occur too late for a lot on this board in the mid south to the mountains, but would be prudent to hold off and see what the good Doc has to say before hammering the nail all the way in.

Nail all the way in? Come on? You do not think its possible the GFS or GGEM cant shift a little further west in the amount of time left?

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My update is finally up: http://www.sandhillswx.com/

nc-call5.jpg

Like the map, but not sure why you have areas like Pitt County as rain to snow when all the model guidance shows us in the upper 20s with snow? To me it looks like highway 17 is going to be near the rain/snow line.. but if it takes an offshore track like the 12z GFS shows then all the state could get snow. Thanks for sharing thoughts and a map, will be interesting to see how it plays out.

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This, IMO Humble opinion is looking like a "blend" of 1989 and the March 93 storm...

It would be devastating for MB/LR/ILM upwards along the coast to OBX....

All I can say is WOW!

Still have that 100lb test line out there and reeling hard W/180 Marlin wire.... 3 Treble hooks LOCKED into it, fighting hard.....

Now folks Lets get her close to the pier where WE can hook Her with a Pier gaff and bring on-board deck..

Local TV Mets are warming to the Idea though..

Local updated AFD

in ILM, they are being conservative as always...

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...

as of 3 am Wednesday...not making a lot of changes to long term

period. Guidance continues to slow down system emerging from the

southwest. In addition guidance has continued the trend of a

slower/deeper system affecting the southeast late during the Holiday

weekend. GFS remains the fastest with European model (ecmwf) the slowest. Lowered

probability of precipitation for Sat and extended chance probability of precipitation through Sat night into sun. Did

not yet add any frozen precipitation given the large amount of uncertainty

with respect to timing and track...but at the very least it is

starting to look like snow may be an issue as the storm exits on

sun.

After the storm exits another Arctic air mass will be pushed into

the deep south by large 500 mb trough. Dry Arctic air ensures no clouds or

precipitation Monday and Tuesday but will also keep temperatures below to well

below climatology. Extended MOS numbers area right around 40 and likely

bias in favor of climatology...suggesting highs in the middle to upper 30s

and lows in the teens.

current Obs.

51.7 °F azeHumidity:100%

Dew Point:52 °F

Wind:Calm Wind Gust:0.0 mph

Pressure:29.85 in (Steady)

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