Christmas Storm IV

[Wow]

oh yeah GGEM big hit for the SE ( i think)

[oconeexman]

Can anyone see the pressure the GFS has at 126? It appears to be close to 960mb or so, Its extreme. I still like the extreme solution and have little doubt that it plays out for someone. We have historic blocking ,a split flow, an extreme PNA ridge at just the right time, the incredibly deep Newfoundland vortex , and it pulls away at precisely the right time (on euro), so theres no reason why we shouldn't have an extreme event. Its literally how they're made. Normally this setup occurs in New England though, not the Southeast, so thats why everyone has questions. Its still uncertain exactly wher the phase occurs and that is the decider on where the storm goes, but I have very little doubt really on this storm getting into record deep territory , as its about the perfect storm setup. We could end up with a 990 or less storm on the Georgia coast, which to me is pretty iincredible, and watch it go from that to 975 when its aproaching Wilmington or the Outer Banks, which would be a sight to behold....with blizzard conditions pretty far inland.

As long as the northern stream is diving due south like the Euro (and now the GFS) in the lower Miss. Valley then our southern system should begin to really amplify and quite honestly, the sky's the limit on what happens to its pressure. It could be March 1993, but further east for all practical purposes.

Uggh..didn't want to hear that for us western folks. Still very early though.

Thx for your thoughts

[BIG FROSTY]

Wasn't the euro 0z ens mean quiet abit east of the op ? That's what concerns me for wnc, I bet the euro shifts east some.

[FoothillsNC]

Foot, Could you give your thoughts on the Mnts. if you have time? I am no expert but it seems like they may be to far north and then to far west. I know the ratios will be in play here as will the flow but feel like they may get left out of the big dance. Thanks in Advance.

I'm going to lay out my thoughts after the 12Z Euro today. Its still very early and the only thing that matters are trends at this point. Not exact deterministic solutions. I'll try to lay out the whole play from start Christmas Eve and onward, and for the entire Southeast. Whether its good or bad, so hang in there.

[downeastnc]

Can anyone see the pressure the GFS has at 126? It appears to be close to 960mb or so, Its extreme. I still like the extreme solution and have little doubt that it plays out for someone. We have historic blocking ,a split flow, an extreme PNA ridge at just the right time, the incredibly deep Newfoundland vortex , and it pulls away at precisely the right time (on euro), so theres no reason why we shouldn't have an extreme event. Its literally how they're made. Normally this setup occurs in New England though, not the Southeast, so thats why everyone has questions. Its still uncertain exactly wher the phase occurs and that is the decider on where the storm goes, but I have very little doubt really on this storm getting into record deep territory , as its about the perfect storm setup. We could end up with a 990 or less storm on the Georgia coast, which to me is pretty iincredible, and watch it go from that to 975 when its aproaching Wilmington or the Outer Banks, which would be a sight to behold....with blizzard conditions pretty far inland.

As long as the northern stream is diving due south like the Euro (and now the GFS) in the lower Miss. Valley then our southern system should begin to really amplify and quite honestly, the sky's the limit on what happens to its pressure. It could be March 1993, but further east for all practical purposes.

Finally after close to 30 yrs of waiting I might actually get 1980 the sequel.....of course I have seen the models throw us this bone a few other times and right before we grabbed it they snatched it away.......I will remain skeptical but hopeful but man 1980 was insane and I am pretty sure everyone in NC would be happy to see a repeat of that one.

This storm as modeled at least by the Euro has had a "epic" or "historic" feel to it and to see the GFS come to it well lets just hope they are right for once.

[audioguy3107]

Can anyone see the pressure the GFS has at 126? It appears to be close to 960mb or so, Its extreme. I still like the extreme solution and have little doubt that it plays out for someone. We have historic blocking ,a split flow, an extreme PNA ridge at just the right time, the incredibly deep Newfoundland vortex , and it pulls away at precisely the right time (on euro), so theres no reason why we shouldn't have an extreme event. Its literally how they're made. Normally this setup occurs in New England though, not the Southeast, so thats why everyone has questions. Its still uncertain exactly wher the phase occurs and that is the decider on where the storm goes, but I have very little doubt really on this storm getting into record deep territory , as its about the perfect storm setup. We could end up with a 990 or less storm on the Georgia coast, which to me is pretty iincredible, and watch it go from that to 975 when its aproaching Wilmington or the Outer Banks, which would be a sight to behold....with blizzard conditions pretty far inland.

As long as the northern stream is diving due south like the Euro (and now the GFS) in the lower Miss. Valley then our southern system should begin to really amplify and quite honestly, the sky's the limit on what happens to its pressure. It could be March 1993, but further east for all practical purposes.

Have a question for you or any of the other mets here.........we've been talking about how we may not know the true nature of the SW until it arrives on the west coast due to data sampling....etc. From your experience, how much does the "data" or model solutions vary in a situation like this once it actually does come on shore? I know there's no exact answer, but in general, are there usually huge model swings or more subtle hints as to what may happen down the road?

[MOD]

Can anyone see the pressure the GFS has at 126? It appears to be close to 960mb or so, Its extreme. I still like the extreme solution and have little doubt that it plays out for someone. We have historic blocking ,a split flow, an extreme PNA ridge at just the right time, the incredibly deep Newfoundland vortex , and it pulls away at precisely the right time (on euro), so theres no reason why we shouldn't have an extreme event. Its literally how they're made. Normally this setup occurs in New England though, not the Southeast, so thats why everyone has questions. Its still uncertain exactly wher the phase occurs and that is the decider on where the storm goes, but I have very little doubt really on this storm getting into record deep territory , as its about the perfect storm setup. We could end up with a 990 or less storm on the Georgia coast, which to me is pretty iincredible, and watch it go from that to 975 when its aproaching Wilmington or the Outer Banks, which would be a sight to behold....with blizzard conditions pretty far inland.

As long as the northern stream is diving due south like the Euro (and now the GFS) in the lower Miss. Valley then our southern system should begin to really amplify and quite honestly, the sky's the limit on what happens to its pressure. It could be March 1993, but further east for all practical purposes.

Someone on the 12Z main model thread listed it as 964MB

[keithinala]

oh yeah GGEM big hit for the SE ( i think)

60 looks great, much better than same time on last run at 72...

[keithinala]

GGEM splits energy at 72

[Lookout]

12z canadian keeps most of the precip on the coast unfortunately, maybe a little for north Ga/western carolinas but not much.

[FoothillsNC]

oh yeah GGEM big hit for the SE ( i think)

It looks remarkable at 5H and very similar to the Euro at 72 and 84 but fails to fully sharpen and cutoff, but overall I'd say thats extremely close. I'm very encouraged with the far west diving northern stream and the neutral til southern stream just waiting to be picked up. I don't place much faith in its surface depiction but I can tell you if that 5H look is legit at 72 and 84, there will be a major bomb going off over the Florida panhandle and crawliing up the Georgia coast just like the ECMWF.

[tnweathernut]

If the EURO verified, you'd have snow.

I know what i am up against, and my post did reference the Euro. I realize it's really the only one currently throwing me a bone. I guess if you have one on your side, that's the one you want.

[CaryWx]

Pending some hope on this EURO this afternoon. Stay the course, baby.

[RaleighWx]

GGEM looks better than the 12z run aloft, at the surface precip looks somewhat similar to 12z GFS.

A look at the 12z GFS Ensemble preicp shows a wetter solution for the event vs the 6z.

12z GFS ENS 120 hour precip valid F144

6z GFS ENS 120 hour Precip valid F144

Overall the GFS, GGEM, and GFS ENS are all encouraging vs the previous runs of those models. Now the big question is does the ECMWF hold its ground are start to hedge towards the middle and meet the GFS/GGEM.

[Cheeznado]

GGEM better for the Interior/west sections- does suggest a couple of inches for moi, a bit earlier phase. I agree the Euro will be very very important- the idea of a bomb is pretty much set, its just the details. Hoping for a total serve hold by the Euro, but it could trend east a bit based on last night's ensembles. I think the "big Kahuna" is in store for someone, do not expect that here, but you folks off to the east of GA watch out.

[BIG FROSTY]

It looks remarkable at 5H and very similar to the Euro at 72 and 84 but fails to fully sharpen and cutoff, but overall I'd say thats extremely close. I'm very encouraged with the far west diving northern stream and the neutral til southern stream just waiting to be picked up. I don't place much faith in its surface depiction but I can tell you if that 5H look is legit at 72 and 84, there will be a major bomb going off over the Florida panhandle and crawliing up the Georgia coast just like the ECMWF.

Yea, But if it bombs of fl. ga. coast that will be to far east for us in the western carolinas correct ? Need it bombing out in the gulf tracking thru s ga.

[bingcrosbyb]

12z Canadian precip is pretty impressive. If it phased earlier, it's a bomb.

[weatherheels]

Just a glance at the surface maps of the ggem and the gfs, quite similar. Considering the ensemble mean for the 12z gfs is west of the op, that is encouraging. As of right now, I expect a light to mod event, with higher confidence the further east you get in NC. I can't say i'd be happy if eastern NC gets dumped on and I dont, but I can promise you i'd be so much more damn satisfied knowing you guys down east got snow instead of it being the MA like it usually goes down.

[FoothillsNC]

Have a question for you or any of the other mets here.........we've been talking about how we may not know the true nature of the SW until it arrives on the west coast due to data sampling....etc. From your experience, how much does the "data" or model solutions vary in a situation like this once it actually does come on shore? I know there's no exact answer, but in general, are there usually huge model swings or more subtle hints as to what may happen down the road?

I thnk the southern CAL system is sampled very well now, and all models are close agreement there, so i don't see much to worry with it. The big question is the track it takes and how long it remains a sharp or closed, potent trough. The Euro (best res. model) says a very long time.

Someone on the 12Z main model thread listed it as 964MB

Thanks.

Yea, But if it bombs of fl. ga. coast that will be to far east for us in the western carolinas correct ? Need it bombing out in the gulf tracking thru s ga.

No. So long as the 5H cuts off over northern Al/GA/TN/NC border, then that would stall the surface low some and pull it close to the coast and pummel most of eastern half of Ga and the western Carolinas as well, with good gulf inflow at first, and then good Atlantic inflow. The euro has that 5H cutoff so far south, and if its an error then it won't be as good for us. We'll see soon. The reason the Euro is so far south is because of the strong PNA ridging out west, which is almost extreme and also the Baffin Blocking, which really forces a cutoff to form near the Tenn. Valley. A rare thing honestly, but we're living in a very unique set of conditions right now.

[oconeexman]

Yea, But if it bombs of fl. ga. coast that will be to far east for us in the western carolinas correct ? Need it bombing out in the gulf tracking thru s ga.

Yes me and you do...battle lines WEST vs EAST depending on the PHASE.

Hope this epic event doesn't turn into a war on here between us all! LOL

[Jon]

Can anyone see the pressure the GFS has at 126? It appears to be close to 960mb or so, Its extreme.

The 12z? Looks like 939 unless I'm completely confused.

Someone on the 12Z main model thread listed it as 964MB

962 at 120hr, 939 at 126hr

[downeastnc]

Yes me and you do...battle lines WEST vs EAST depending on the PHASE.

Hope this epic event doesn't turn into a war on here between us all! LOL

Look at it like this a west phase will actually stop some of us from seeing any snow, however everyone gets accumulating snow with a east phase just the bullseye is here in the east. But keep in mind a 1980 type system would give everyone in NC a really decent hit I am not sure how this system played out for SC and GA but I imagine they got in on it too. Especially if it is the huge bomb the Euro Ens and GFS Ops has it as a low that big off the NC coast would have a snow shield all the way to the mts and out west the cold air and rates would be sick.

[FoothillsNC]

The 12z? Looks like 939 unless I'm completely confused.

962 at 120hr, 939 at 126hr

whoa! Thats extremely deep. Don't know the record but that is amazing. Now picture it further west.

[snowdevil]

when does the euro run? Isn't it pm est?

[Cheeznado]

Do not bother looking at the 12Z Ukie (out to 72) it's very suppressed. Will Dr. No live up to his old moniker, or shed that label for good?

[Cheeznado]

when does the euro run? Isn't it pm est?

It begins in about a half hour. Patience, Grasshopper.

[StormSC]

Quick question if I may ask. Here on the NC/SC border near coast....besides the snow factor...what kinds of winds are you talking in a storm which the EURO or the GFS for that matter is showing? Should there be concerns of losing power? Some posters are talking blizzard like. Would this be like a tropical system in comparison? Thanks in advance.

[oconeexman]

Look at it like this a west phase will actually stop some of us from seeing any snow, however everyone gets accumulating snow with a east phase just the bullseye is here in the east. But keep in mind a 1980 type system would give everyone in NC a really decent hit I am not sure how this system played out for SC and GA but I imagine they got in on it too. Especially if it is the huge bomb the Euro Ens and GFS Ops has it as a low that big off the NC coast would have a snow shield all the way to the mts and out west the cold air and rates would be sick.

I was 8yrs old but remember thanks to pictures...may scan one and put it on. Roughly a 6" storm for NW SC

Ye I'd take it!

[Cheeznado]

whoa! Thats extremely deep. Don't know the record but that is amazing. Now picture it further west.

That is a mistake. On the maps I am looking at its a 959, not 939.

[DCMetroWinston]

Even Accuweather is starting to honk now:

"Hold everything! The latest indications are the cross-country storm will shift farther south, sparing much of the Midwest heavy snow, but raising concerns for the same in places that rarely get it.

Based on the behavior of the storm Tuesday and Wednesday around California, AccuWeather.com meteorologists now believe the cross-country storm will track farther south through the middle part of the nation, and do so at a slower pace.....

Interestingly, a more southern track and push of cold air raises the "possibility" of some snow for Southern cities such as Birmingham, Atlanta and Charlotte."

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/43364/snowstorm-threat-shifts-south.asp