Christmas Storm IV

[FoothillsNC]

At 72 the GFS still sends our ULL into south Texas now, because the overpowering of the northern stream. Considering how the Euro has a closed low and pretty strong moving more north, this looks unlikely inmy opinon. Once again the GFS is trying to tell us it likes the idea of a full phase but it is probably crushing the strong southern wave too quickly .

[burgertime]

God D*mmit I was posting in the general banter thread. @72 it's looking similar to the Euro 00z run. Haven't checked the vort maps yet though.

[bingcrosbyb]

@60HR, looking awfully like the Euro.......

[burgertime]

@84 it looks to be a good step in the right direction. GFS might actually be getting a clue, still looks a little strung out but to my eyes it doesn't look bad.

[Wow]

At 72 the GFS still sends our ULL into south Texas now, because the overpowering of the northern stream. Considering how the Euro has a closed low and pretty strong moving more north, this looks unlikely inmy opinon. Once again the GFS is trying to tell us it likes the idea of a full phase but it is probably crushing the strong southern wave too quickly .

vorts are definitely stronger though. that's a sign it's picking up on it. I'll bet it will model the phase within 72,

[burgertime]

Here we got at 93!!!.....ffffuuuuuuu...it looks like it's sending it OTS at 96. Still a step in the right direction, did it just phase to late?

[FoothillsNC]

at 84, the northern jet is nice and west and diving due south like the Euro. It takes th eULL in teh Gulf south of La and then starts the phase it looks like. Atleast its keeping the southern stream , just supresses it. I like how the GFS has the northern stream coming in far enough west, and the right angle to capture the storm. Its definitely a trend toward the Euros' big phase in the Southeast.

Wow at 93 its almost lock steip with Euro aloft. and big snowstorm in GA. The northern parts are too far north, but the looks is awesome. at 5H

[Wow]

at 84, the northern jet is nice and west and diving due south like the Euro. It takes th eULL in teh Gulf south of La and then starts the phase it looks like. Atleast its keeping the southern stream , just supresses it. I like how the GFS has the northern stream coming in far enough west, and the right angle to capture the storm. Its definitely a trend toward the Euros' big phase in the Southeast.

Wow at 93 its almost lock steip with Euro aloft. and big snowstorm in GA. The northern parts are too far north, but the looks is awesome. at 5H

it's inching its way toward the euro's big phase... doesn't the GFS truncate its resolution at 72 hrs, or did they extend it now?

[burgertime]

@102 it was sooo close. Good run for the trend.

[FoothillsNC]

I take this run as extremely good news to see just how close the GFS really is to Euro. The surface features are a little southa nd east, but aloft its extremely close. The 5H doesn't cut exactly where the Euro had it in nrothern Alaand southern Tenn, but he northern jet is very close. I'm surprised how close they look at 96 hours really. Good snow verbatim for central and eastern GA and sotuhern and eastern SC and then coastal NC. Definite trend toward Euro.

[beanskip]

WOW! 850 closed low over Augusta, Ga. at 90 hours -- like the looks of that!

[RaleighWx]

This is a great trend from the 6z run, agian shows that the ECMWF idea may be the way to go. Of course watch the 12z back off, but you have to admit this is a good trend much different than the 6z run.

[UpStateCAD]

WOW! 850 closed low over Augusta, Ga. at 90 hours -- like the looks of that!

Boy that sure has the sound of a crushing blow (in a good way) to the upstate and nc foothills. Just say'n.

[rduwx]

So close to the euro. At 102 there is a 996mb low off the NC coast.

[Itunis]

850 temps at onset are a bit warm with the 0C running from Cullman-Rome-GSP-south of CLT. Quickly dropping though. Nice swath of .1"-.25" QPF for N GA up to a Dalton-Toccoa line.

[DaculaWeather]

I now have two GRLevel3 radars going, one for San Diego and one for Phoenix. I will follow the storm with these two links. As it moves, I'll drop the oldest radar and make it the new one, playing leap-frog across the country.

• Storm Mode Radar 1 (Activated 10:25am EST, Actively Looping) Currently San Diego CA (NKX)
• Storm Mode Radar 2 (Activated 10:45am EST, Actively Looping) Currently Phoenix AZ (IWA)

Once the Phoenix radar starts looping, it will display METAR data also. I've also activated county by county watches/warnings and frontal positions to the map.

[bingcrosbyb]

GFS trend towards the Euro is very encouraging.

[FoothillsNC]

I think if the GFS had good resolution like the Superior ECMWF, what we would have seen with this run is a look much like that of the Euro becuase aloft the features and timing are about as close as yo can expect 2 models to be at 72 to 96 hours out. Amazingly close for 2 stream interaction. I'm pleasantly surprised. If the Euro keeps the southern stream in tact and doesnt' trend south in Texas like the GFS is doing , I think it will still have the southeast phase, and a whopper at that since the 5h and northern stream looks extremely amplified and west enough to do the trick. Guess we'll see.

[Lookout]

Yeah this run is certainly better than the 06z and prior runs. Certainly a step in the right direction. This is why you don't call busts with certainty so quickly widre.

[Itunis]

Looks like ~.25" QPF total for Atlanta with amounts increasing as you go SE and decreasing to the NW. I'd take it...

[rduwx]

down to 992 off the NC coast at 105

[Rankin5150]

Damn...we need this baby to phase earlier. Let the nail biting begin. Wildre...this is only Weds. Please do not make some poor weenie have thoughts of suicide.

[WidreMann]

Hey guys, look what I did! I counter-jinxed the GFS! Woohoo!

[Miller]

looks decent, still i think it lacks moisture, especially for the strength and magnitude of this storm...

[POWERSTROKE]

Yeah this run is certainly better than the 06z and prior runs. Certainly a step in the right direction. This is why you don't call busts with certainty so quickly widre.

I don't see how anybody would call it a bust at this time in the game. We are still 3-4 days away and we all know anything can change. I think all of you guys do a great job and it helps us who have to treat or plow roads and parking lots.

[Rob]

Foothills, what is up with the 12Z GFS completely removing any significant QPF for the entire state?

[stlirish]

I take this run as extremely good news to see just how close the GFS really is to Euro. The surface features are a little southa nd east, but aloft its extremely close. The 5H doesn't cut exactly where the Euro had it in nrothern Alaand southern Tenn, but he northern jet is very close. I'm surprised how close they look at 96 hours really. Good snow verbatim for central and eastern GA and sotuhern and eastern SC and then coastal NC. Definite trend toward Euro.

FoothillsNC, to my untrained eye, this (run of the GFS) would put down at least a few inches in the Atlanta area on Christmas Day. With the 850 closed low track over Augusta, that would be Central and Eastern GA in a nice snow storm. Would you agree?

[Stovepipe]

The entire state of TN is in the rip-off zone with this 12z GFS run.

[DaculaWeather]

Just in from the FFC

A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY FOR NORTH ANDCENTRAL GEORGIA...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY SPREADING A WINTRY MIX ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME ALL COMPUTER MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE STATE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HOLDS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS ATLANTA AND GAINESVILLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY...AND INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL ON CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS GEORGIA...OR THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST TO THE LATEST FORECASTON THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

[bingcrosbyb]

If it isn't for the GFS bias to have the vort get crushed into obvlion instead of phasing like always this might have been the Euro. Trend is our friend folks. 12z Euro needs to stay steady and let GFS play catchup.