rduwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 To my amateur eyes it looks good at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 at 78 theres a 1008 low over FL panhandle or really south of the panhandle and snow in central GA and sw GA to southern Alabama very healthy looking. Lights snow Carolinas. At 500, its not as good looking as the earlier runs so far. At 84, theres a 1004 mb low off of Charleston a good distance of 100 miles maybe, and snows along central Ga and eastern Carolinas. Everything is shifted a little east and north this run at 5H so that makes ton of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @84 it's off the coast of Ga not nearly as good as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yep, this is probably going to suck for us in GA, not going to unwind fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well that's all I have to see ...@90 it's a good bit east of ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro finally gave in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It doesn't stall of the coast either...at 90 its off the NC coast and 96 up around DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 992 off of HAT and snow in eastern NC. So far, the qpf isnt' that impressive outside of central GA and SC and eastern NC. Looks like Tenn gets almost nothing, just trace amounts, as well as northern GA. Theres spots of .25 in NC but much more in eastern NC and eastern half of SC. Not much dynamite here this run. Not even a firecracker. Good night folks its time for some much needed rest. I will say sometimes the euro drops a big event and brings it back, so I'm sure there are more changes to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What a difference some data ingest makes. Of course tomorrow the GFS will probably show a monster for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i say wait till 12z tomorrow before throwing in the towel. all of the models moved a different direction with their solutions this run. could be a waffle. most likely it isnt but im just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, at least we now have the first run with the NAM/GFS/Euro in pretty good agreement of a late phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Probably less snow for us than the 12Z run, but a lot of digging going on there- the northern stream is just a bit too disorganized. Central/eastern NC looks good but sorry GA and the mountains/foothills (except upslope). Still I will take an inch or two, thought the earlier scenario might be too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Way to go euro, no one is going to listen to ur bs anymore even if u show it 272736 runs in a row. Surprised it didn't give in a 12z. Let the cliff diving begin folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 just checked the 102 panel and its hooking back to NJ and NYC, they're getting crushed . So in essence its bypassing the interior southeast mostly then recurving as the 5H closes off, and pulls it in toward the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If possible will one of you guys post some qpf amounts for the eastern carolinas? And I suppose the temps are just as cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i say wait till 12z tomorrow before throwing in the towel. all of the models moved a different direction with their solutions this run. could be a waffle. most likely it isnt but im just saying... I am not optimistic, this is going towards what the Euro ensembles have said all along- we might get a return to the extreme scenario, but that seems unlikely at this point. Hope I am wrong but that is my take tight now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is the beginning of a trend that will not favor any of us if it continues. From the sounds of it (dont have access) central sc/charlotte is probably lacking qpf or isn't cold enough to make it snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the .50" line goes from Columbus, to Macon to CAE to RDU approx. the .75" is about 50 or 100 miles east of that and then there is 1" + in very eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the .50" line goes from Columbus, to Macon to CAE to RDU approx. the .75" is about 50 or 100 miles east of that and then there is 1" + in very eastern NC. lol it gives poor ole frosty .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Timing is everything: Northern is a half step fast tonight. Id be cautious about throwing in until latter on Thursday/Friday morning. Its thread the needle and always a long shot on phasers, but that northern stream comes down a hair tick latter, and alot of us will be back in business out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I am not optimistic, this is going towards what the Euro ensembles have said all along- we might get a return to the extreme scenario, but that seems unlikely at this point. Hope I am wrong but that is my take tight now. Yeah, but it still wants to give some snow, on Christmas, and in my lifetime, that is a pretty big deal. At least it hasn't gone quickly to nothing. Might put that off until this time tomorrow, but maybe not. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Timing is everything: Northern is a half step fast tonight. Id be cautious about throwing in until latter on Thursday/Friday morning. Its thread the needle and always a long shot on phasers, but that northern stream comes down a hair tick latter, and alot of us will be back in business out west. What's funny is all the TV Mets in the triad are gonna end up being right, possible flurries for me. lol And I thought they were crazy tonight with that forecast. LOL I made a post sometime today, I said I didn't trust the euro no more than any of the rest. I don't know how many times it's showed a massive snow and in the ended up with nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yep, this is probably going to suck for us in GA, not going to unwind fast enough. Sort of depends on where you are at. It certainly is not nearly as good as the prior runs. Atlanta and athens get about 0.10 to 0.25 total, while the 0.25. to 0.50 amounts are along and south of a columbus to maybe greenwood sc line. 0.50 amounts are from albany to augusta and south..but I'm sure some of that is rain. It's still cold enough for snow it looks like though, 850mb temps are -2 or 3c at the start to -4 or 5c toward the end. One of the main differences, which in part hurt totals, is it's faster than it's prior runs by a good several hours. But vs the gfs it's much slower, the gfs has the low off the ga coast at 72 hours while this run of the euro has it in the northeast gulf. There is little doubt on this run, central georgia and central and southern sc do far better than areas further inland. No question about it, it's worse than many of it's prior runs but I guess it could have been a lot worse..especially compared to the other guidance. We'll see what the 12z does but it might be a good idea to start lowering expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, but it still wants to give some snow, on Christmas, and in my lifetime, that is a pretty big deal. At least it hasn't gone quickly to nothing. Might put that off until this time tomorrow, but maybe not. T Actually, you get a very nice 3" on this run. Big winner in GA is SE of Augusta with ~6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is from Allan's site, 978 off the VA capes. Storm sheds 30mb in 24 hours, I imagine QPF totals would be a little higher if this actually verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I really don't think CAE nor points directly south of us are gonna be cold enough especially without a bomb off the SE coast.. not even sure about the coast. Every model changed tonight as soon as the s/w came onshore which is a super bad sign and I wouldn't 100% write it off.. but wouldn't 100% write off OTS either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 btw, it should be noted this run drops less than 0.05 in the mountains of north Ga. Western nc mountains get 0.10. Nothing of consequence either for most of north and central alabama. Southeastern alabama might fair well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What's funny is all the TV Mets in the triad are gonna end up being right, possible flurries for me. lol And I thought they were crazy tonight with that forecast. LOL I made a post sometime today, I said I didn't trust the euro no more than any of the rest. I don't know how many times it's showed a massive snow and in the ended up with nothing. I know it. This had and still does big potential. But people have to understand these Phasers are what make the big daddy's'. The timing is a thread the needle always. I'm curious to see if I can squeeze out a .25 with this run + a decent ratio if cold enough for atleast 3-4. Promise you this latest euro run/ and what actually happens in 3 days will be different,just dont know how much and for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I really don't think CAE nor points directly south of us are gonna be cold enough especially without a bomb off the SE coast.. not even sure about the coast. Every model changed tonight as soon as the s/w came onshore which is a super bad sign and I wouldn't 100% write it off.. but wouldn't 100% write off OTS either. Did you honesty expect them to hold the same solution till verification? Even this run of the EC is somewhat extreme compared to the other guidance tonight. Granted, while not as extreme as the 12z run, a widespread 5" event in the SE does not happen all that often. I stated yesterday, that for a model to be able to resolve subtle differences in the atmosphere 120hrs out is highly unlikely. The 0z runs tomorrow night (actually tonight since it is already Thursday), will be the first set outside of the dead zone, and we should begin to see a consensus start to form. But we do already see a general consensus on the ens means, which are very similar, and likely paint a more accurate picture of what is going to happen at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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