Christmas Storm IV

[Rankin5150]

Hopefully we are just in that time frame when the models lose the storm. This always seems to happen in the 3-4 day range. Everyone starts jumping off the cliff. Then about 48-72 hours beforehand, the models start trending stronger and further NW. It may not be the monster the Euro was showing, but I just have trouble believing that a STJ s/w this strong, with PNA ridging and some northern stream support would slide out to sea as a 1014mb "low". I just don't buy it.

Agreed Wildre. Looking at GOES, this thing is a monster coming on shore. Very interesting, considering we are in a La NINA year. California will be making the headlines I am sure, thanks to this.

[Lookout]

The euro made it's name doing this with January 96. To this day, that is why it remains a revered model.

I don't recall, but was the euro the only model showing it?

Honestly, I do have some increasing reservations about the validity of the euro's solution. We should be seeing at least one other model showing something at least partially similar at this point imho. If the gfs, uk, or canadian don't show such an extreme solution, even if the 12z euro remains consistent, I wouldn't put all the chips in yet that's for sure.

[BIG FROSTY]

I don't recall, but was the euro the only model showing it?

Honestly, I do have some increasing reservations about the validity of the euro's solution. We should be seeing at least one other model showing something at least partially similar at this point imho. If the gfs, uk, or canadian don't show such an extreme solution, even if the 12z euro remains consistent, I wouldn't put all the chips in yet that's for sure.

I agree, If none of the other models jumps on board today with the 12z runs then I think the euro may be smoking crack

[Lookout]

Hopefully we are just in that time frame when the models lose the storm. This always seems to happen in the 3-4 day range. Everyone starts jumping off the cliff. Then about 48-72 hours beforehand, the models start trending stronger and further NW. It may not be the monster the Euro was showing, but I just have trouble believing that a STJ s/w this strong, with PNA ridging and some northern stream support would slide out to sea as a 1014mb "low". I just don't buy it.

It won't just slide out to sea as a weak low, the question is when does it bomb. It's not out of the realm of possibility at all that it happens too late.

[beanskip]

I agree completely. We don't need a perfect solution from the 12z GFS, but it's time for this suppression trend to screech to a halt -- 12z GFS needs to move back in the right direction.

I don't recall, but was the euro the only model showing it?

Honestly, I do have some increasing reservations about the validity of the euro's solution. We should be seeing at least one other model showing something at least partially similar at this point imho. If the gfs, uk, or canadian don't show such an extreme solution, even if the 12z euro remains consistent, I wouldn't put all the chips in yet that's for sure.

[fig]

I'm beginning to get the feeling we are looking at another December 1989 like storm that sees a major snowstorm go to our south and east. That storm gave places like Charleston and Wilmington a white Christmas, while not dropping as much as a flake anywhere over the foothills or piedmont. Believe I had rather this miss to the north than seeing that happen again.

Bite your tongue!!! We still have a lot of time with this thing, and if I remember correctly, the models should get a better handle on it when the system comes ashore in SoCal, right?

[Lookout]

I agree completely. We don't need a perfect solution from the 12z GFS, but it's time for this suppression trend to screech to a halt -- 12z GFS needs to move back in the right direction.

At the very least, if the 0z models tonight don't trend toward the euro after this system is ashore and fully analyzed, I think that might spell trouble.

[MillzPirate]

I think the 0z GGEM might be the solution we end up with.

[beanskip]

Well, I'll tell you what, this would be the exact opposite of that if this storm busts.

5 straight runs showing snow, the last 2 of them showing a HECS?

If I get screwed on this, I'm never trusting the Euro again.

By the way, I'm naming this the Dave Kingman Storm -- it's either a 450 home run, or an ugly strikeout.

The euro made it's name doing this with January 96. To this day, that is why it remains a revered model.

[NCSNOW]

Our system finally comes ashore today too, which should go into the 0z runs. I know one thing, southern california is getting absolutely POUNDED by this system right now.

Why or dont they fly some NOAA planes out their and do dropsones. I mean your only talking about a possible lights out Blizzard up the eastern seaboard.

[SBUWX23]

I think everyone needs to realize that there are so many players on the table for the euro depiction to occur that riding that model could be a bad idea just for the fact it could be way over doing the storm. Im not saying there will not be snow in the SE, I am just saying to be careful to not put your mind just on this solution. The European was showing a monster storm for the northeast with the last storm, yes it was for a less amount of runs, but it eventually trended away. We have to be careful in these La Nina situations regardless of the large ridging to the west. I still do not like the looks of that MONSTER ocean storm on the 84 hour nam from the 12z run.

Plus the 00z Euro Ensemble mean from Allan's site looks a let less impressive. Yes it is a mean but shows there is spread and several members showing a weaker system.

[tazaroo]

I hope we can get good snow. What I don't like is this storm seems to be an all or nothing storm. If we can't get the extreme Euro solution to pan out then you would think we could get the middle of the road solultion and cut everyone precip that the Euro was showing at 0z in half and I think we almost all would be happy.

However, although most of the models look similar at 500 there are several models showing flurries or 0 precip my way with only the Euro showing a blizzard so far.

Would love to trust in the almighty EURO but after what it did on the last storm, my confidence is not real high until more models start to show close to what its showing at the surface.

[burgertime]

According to what the Euro had last night, the phase wouldn't occur until just 96hrs (from 00z) which is obviously just outside the 12z run of this model.

I didn't see much difference between the 00z and 12z. It may have slowed down a little bit and everything looks to be set up for a phasing to occur.....

lol again this is why you're a met and we're amateurs. Thanks for giving us that info!

[Weather Czar]

rgem

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif

[bingcrosbyb]

rgem

http://www.weatherof...ast/600_100.gif

Pretty good ridging out ahead on the RGEM. Vort is a little north of Euro.

[beanskip]

Mets: Good learning opportunity for me.

What are we looking for with the 12z GFS?

Correct me if I'm wrong (and I usually am), but I would say:

-- Even slower with the shortwave as it comes on shore and tracks across desert SW.

-- Less intrusion by the ocean low into the U.S

-- Consolidated shortwave diving from Canada to phase with our disturbance.

What else?

[burgertime]

I think everyone needs to realize that there are so many players on the table for the euro depiction to occur that riding that model could be a bad idea just for the fact it could be way over doing the storm. Im not saying there will not be snow in the SE, I am just saying to be careful to not put your mind just on this solution. The European was showing a monster storm for the northeast with the last storm, yes it was for a less amount of runs, but it eventually trended away. We have to be careful in these La Nina situations regardless of the large ridging to the west. I still do not like the looks of that MONSTER ocean storm on the 84 hour nam from the 12z run.

Plus the 00z Euro Ensemble mean from Allan's site looks a let less impressive. Yes it is a mean but shows there is spread and several members showing a weaker system.

Good thoughts. Everything has to be perfect for the bomb the Euro has been the past few runs. We've been threading the needle, there is just as much if not more chance it doesn't time right and we get left with a less then historic storm.

That said I am perfectly fine with 2-4

[CLTwx]

They are getting drubbed in SoCal

High water has forced Amtrak to cancel passenger rail service between Los Angeles and San Diego.

[RaleighWx]

My morning discussion

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/threat-for-a-heavy-snowstorm-around-christmas-remains

[burgertime]

GFS looks faster with the energy out west then the 00z Euro.

[WidreMann]

GFS looks faster with the energy out west then the 00z Euro.

So it's already game over for the GFS.

[bingcrosbyb]

@24HR, weaker vort. slightly north of 00z. blah.

[POWERSTROKE]

My morning discussion

http://www.examiner....ristmas-remains

great write up.

[BIG FROSTY]

My morning discussion

http://www.examiner....ristmas-remains

Good read as always Alan What I don't like is you shifting the heavy snow map more east. lol

[BullCityWx]

Yep, it's over. I'm throwing in the towel now.

Because of the GFS? That's a fools bargain and you know it dude.

[FoothillsNC]

GFS has the northern stream coming in strong at 48 and starting to shred the ULL. I doubt that already.

[bingcrosbyb]

@ 48, the vort is hanging back. Looks like the northern stream is taking it's toll. Typical GFS.

[Lookout]

The writing's on the wall. The ocean storm is too strong and too far west and relying on phasing with hard-to-time northern stream means that this just isn't going to come together. All the models have jumped ship except the OP Euro and a few of its ensemble members. The GFS scores the coup .

It's a little too early to be saying this with such certainty. Calling busts days in advance is premature and awfully weenie like. Plus All you are doing is starting a cascade of people reacting and making more trouble for me having to delete a bunch of "omgs" to your posts. So let's refrain from this type of stuff for now.

[GreensboroWx]

@54 the vort is still pretty energetic despite the shearing attempt by the northern stream.....

[FoothillsNC]

There is a good looking inverted trough in the plains, I don't recall seeing that on the GFS, good precip there stretching down to Texas with it. At 54 and 60 it looks a lot like Euro now. Almost, the phasing is coming in it appears but the Texas wave is open, not closed like the Euro but the location is about the same. The trend is stil for GFS to be more like the Euro here. The northern stream seems poised to capture it. We'll see