Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Tonights Canadian makes no sense. At 60 hours the southern wave is going off the coast of Texas and by 72 hours whats left of it is in the central Gulf. Then the next panel sparks a new northern Gulf low thanks to new energy in the northern stream diving in, but thats not phasing at all. Its an entirely different low, not the phase job the Euro has. I agree. I don't know if I'm qualified to say that. But yes, it's weird. It didn't appear to handle the phasing of the two(3?) pieces of energy well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, now that the other 00z models are coming in terrible, maybe I'll back off. I'd still give it another day since these kind of flip-flops can happen. But the trends tonight are not encouraging. Only thing good is the 00z gfs ens mean looks better in the se so there is still spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0z GFS ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What is really confusing me is just how different the models are handling the southern wave only 48hours from now? How can the NAM trend towards phasing that energy in way early and way north, and then the ggem/ukie send the energy down towards the gulf?? And if you want a real laugh, go see what the NOGAPS does with the southern wave.... it stalls it in Texas for a few days and then finally lets it exit off the coast near Brownsville....???? Surely the signs of a really tough pattern. Well, now that the other 00z models are coming in terrible, maybe I'll back off. I'd still give it another day since these kind of flip-flops can happen. But the trends tonight are not encouraging. Back off before seeing the Euro? Its been the only stable model for 4 days straight. I'd atleast wait until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We all knew there would be some flipping close to the storm with the models. Now we get to see if it's a trend when the Euro runs. Again while it sucks we might not get the monster we still get snow by most accounts (at least for my area) so I'm not even close to a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think all of yall are freaking out....Mark my words...(hey my op) I won't change ANY thinking until the EURO comes in much different.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0z GFS ens mean The GFS ensemble run is way better than the operation run for NEGA....Just sit back and let the models do their dance. I do believe that NEGA (Athens) will see some snow on Sat/Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The day 3 worry has set in, and for good reason! The GFS solution although not perfect, it does show a phased storm just not as promising for our area as the EURO. But, you have to remember who's the leader and who's the follower. GFS will follow the EURO, but this doesn't mean we are going to see a historic event (but I hope so). It just means we have a snow storm coming and the details of who gets what and how much is the big question to be answered. Areas back to the West are the least likely to see a historic event if GFS verifies ( this is my area) and the east of Raleigh area on would do well, maybe not 2+ feet that the euro has showed for 2 runs but still a big snow storm. Remember everything has to come together perfect for a historic snow storm that why we don't see them often. Most of the PRO METS. have said the timing has to be perfect, right now the EURO is perfect the GFS is not perfect , close but not perfect. I will tell you Guys and Girls this, if the EURO has the same solution again I would say we have about a 70% chance of it verifying, and look for the other to follow the LEAD DOG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wow... 00z GEFS mean looks impressive for much of AL and GA on Christmas day. At least relative to any other model run I've seen so far for the area that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think all of yall are freaking out....Mark my words...(hey my op) I won't change ANY thinking until the EURO comes in much different.............. I agree...what did we expect, the 00z GFS to mimic the Euro? I think worrying can be justified if the Euro goes east enough to reduce qpf to half or less, or shows something similar to the NAM or GFS....if the Euro comes in similar, we'll see a big boost of enthusiasm in this thread for sure. At least the GFS is showing SOMETHING. I remember when all we wanted was snow on Christmas, now we're asking for a historic storm to dump 1-2 feet...it will be ok, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GFS ensemble mean looks very promising, sure there are some temp issues but that should be worked out in later runs. The low is decent, although a but north than Id like but it is much better than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The GFS Ensemble Mean actually looks pretty nice. Hopefully, that's a sign that the op is wrong. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 link? WeatherNC posted all the relevant maps a few posts back, but the full set of images is here: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html It actually looks better for the I-20 corridor than for us up here, though. We'd still squeak out an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We all knew there would be some flipping close to the storm with the models. Now we get to see if it's a trend when the Euro runs. Again while it sucks we might not get the monster we still get snow by most accounts (at least for my area) so I'm not even close to a cliff. I agree about the difficulty of the pattern. The models seem to be having a lot of trouble since this thing has come on-shore, but I am not concerned at this stage. Remember, this is a really great set-up and it should bring snow to most of us here in the southeast. Until the mighty Euro waffles, I am not ready to drink the kool-aid that's being served. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I agree...what did we expect, the 00z GFS to mimic the Euro? I think worrying can be justified if the Euro goes east enough to reduce qpf to half or less, or shows something similar to the NAM or GFS....if the Euro comes in similar, we'll see a big boost of enthusiasm in this thread for sure. At least the GFS is showing SOMETHING. I remember when all we wanted was snow on Christmas, now we're asking for a historic storm to dump 1-2 feet...it will be ok, guys. 0Z GFS looked like a chilly rain in eastern NC. Pretty big come-down, that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I agree...what did we expect, the 00z GFS to mimic the Euro? I think worrying can be justified if the Euro goes east enough to reduce qpf to half or less, or shows something similar to the NAM or GFS....if the Euro comes in similar, we'll see a big boost of enthusiasm in this thread for sure. At least the GFS is showing SOMETHING. I remember when all we wanted was snow on Christmas, now we're asking for a historic storm to dump 1-2 feet...it will be ok, guys. I agree Jon...The historical snowstorm would be real nice but honestly all I want is some snow and possibly a white Christmas would make that even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 My final thoughts for the night: I've seen the models lose many storms and never bring them back. But those storms were usually long shots in the first place, never had great model support and were fighting against a tough pattern. This storm has actually had pretty decent modelling support from not just the Euro (of course), but also the Canadian, UKMET and at times, the GFS and NAM. The GFS was a straggler for a while, but I don't think it'll ever return to the solution it had a few days ago. With the big PNA ridge in the western US and Canada, plus the still strong southern s/w, I just can't see this dying and sliding out to sea as a 1010mb low. I think it's definitely possible we only get a partial phase and get a weaker storm, but I just don't buy the solutions we are seeing tonight that show it basically falling apart altogether. I don't think I've ever seen a storm that's been so consistently modeled to some degree or another by all the major models end up being a no-show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0Z GFS looked like a chilly rain in eastern NC. Pretty big come-down, that. At least we don't see what we saw Monday again, chilly rain party with flurries at the end for most of the SE...animation I made from the 12z run 12/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 My final thoughts for the night: I've seen the models lose many storms and never bring them back. But those storms were usually long shots in the first place, never had great model support and were fighting against a tough pattern. This storm has actually had pretty decent modelling support from not just the Euro (of course), but also the Canadian, UKMET and at times, the GFS and NAM. The GFS was a straggler for a while, but I don't think it'll ever return to the solution it had a few days ago. With the big PNA ridge in the western US and Canada, plus the still strong southern s/w, I just can't see this dying and sliding out to sea as a 1010mb low. I think it's definitely possible we only get a partial phase and get a weaker storm, but I just don't buy the solutions we are seeing tonight that show it basically falling apart altogether. I don't think I've ever seen a storm that's been so consistently modeled to some degree or another by all the major models end up being a no-show. I think its also important to note that even with the solutions the gfs and nam depict tonight... folks are going to still get some snow across the southeast. Sure it might not be the blockbuster storm the euro has... but 1-3" across NC/SC on Christmas day is certainly a pretty nice present! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0z GFS ens mean at 84hrs, compared to the 12z ECMWF ens mean at 96hrs 0z GFS ens mean at 96hrs, compared to the 12z ECMWF ens mean at 120hrs Timing is a little off, GFS quicker, but very similar in terms of strength and placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think its also important to note that even with the solutions the gfs and nam depict tonight... folks are going to still get some snow across the southeast. Sure it might not be the blockbuster storm the euro has... but 1-3" across NC/SC on Christmas day is certainly a pretty nice present! And to your point, Accuwx now has 1-3 inches posted for the Triad area on Sat and a chance for continued snow on Sunday. I'll take it. A foot is better, but seriously, when did we all the sudden expect to wake up to "The Day After Tomorrow"? History isn't on our side. Take the 1-3" to the bank and leave an extra cookie for the fat man in the red suit you stingy weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Great analysis WeatherNC. Very interesting that the GFS Ensembles seem to be backing up the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0z GFS ens mean at 84hrs, compared to the 12z ECMWF ens mean at 96hrs 0z GFS ens mean at 96hrs, compared to the 12z ECMWF ens mean at 120hrs Timing is a little off, GFS quicker, but very similar in terms of strength and placement. Great post, and shows just how close the GFS is to being like the euro, and just how much it has trended toward the euro. IF the euro holds serve i think we see the gfs totally jump on board tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Great analysis WeatherNC. Very interesting that the GFS Ensembles seem to be backing up the Euro. Also looks to be just a tad bit windy lol. Those maps make me feel a bit better, the Euro needs to give us some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Also looks to be just a tad bit windy lol. Those maps make me feel a bit better, the Euro needs to give us some love. Yeah, those isobars are TIGHT. Wind ought to be howling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro just initialized. I was a little worried it might be late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Here's a question. Why doesn't the OP just be a blend of all the ensembles like the mean is? Wouldn't that make sense? =/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0z ECMWF is running, I am not going to give comparisons to the previous run as I do not have the in between panels, but I will post the images from Plymouth sw onshore at 0z, close to the Baja, looks open, switched the map to 10m height difference and it is barely closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0z ECMWF is running, I am not going to give comparisons to the previous run as I do not have the in between panels, but I will post the images from Plymouth sw onshore at 0z, close to the Baja, looks open Similar to 12z at 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro just initialized. I was a little worried it might be late tonight. Well theres no closed low in southern Cal and I do recall a couple of runs that did have that. That may not be a big deal, but I don't like surprises early on either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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