Christmas Storm IV

[WidreMann]

C'mon SF. That was an entirely different setup though and there was a handful of models and support for a winter storm..with the gfs pretty much by itself not showing it. In this case, it's the total opposite. The euro has continued to be by itself with it's monster solution, while the rest paint a rather low to medium impact system.

And that is also what is being missed here.. I'm not saying there won't be snow, I'm specifically talking about the odds of the monster the euro has been painting.

No, the GFS is actually somewhat alone. The Canadian isn't the monster that the Euro is, but it was definitely stronger at 12z than many of the other models. Same with the UKMET. In fact, the 12z and 18z GFS were stronger than the 00z is. So we have two model runs of the NAM and the GFS, not always trustworthy, especially at this range, and everybody is throwing in the towel?

[Itunis]

haha tell me what happens

Caller didn't respond (sometimes with these online shows there is a big delay between actual conversation and the internet stream, so if you're listening online while calling you may think they aren't responding).

There has been surprisingly good discussion on the show thus far. In short they all seem to prefer the Euro (no surprise).

[DopplerWx]

Each time the GFS shows a non-storm solution, it's a completely different reason. Sometimes it phases too early. Sometimes it's too fast. Sometimes the ocean low is too strong and shunts the storm OTS. It's clearly not handling the atmosphere correctly. The 500 maps look different on each run, not just with the s/w, but in Canada and the Atlantic. It's clearly having some trouble. It's been inconsistent. We went from a wound up low off the coast to nothing in one run. And you guys want to trust this model? It's just barely inside the 4 day range, and that's assuming the faster (and probably spurious) solution. The northern stream is often faster, but the southern stream isn't usually. That's why I don't buy this garbage. If the GFS is settles on the *same* non-storm solution tomorrow night at 00z after several consistent runs, then we can start throwing in the towel.

Excellent point Widre. I mean the NAM was just plaing kooky, maybe it was on to a trend but the GFS sure as heck didnt show the s/w fast like the nam did. As you said, the GFS has been so inconsistent. Every run its a different reason, whereas the euro has shown a phase the past 6 runs. I think the main reason for everyone being so negative is because the NAM looked like crap because it was faster and the GFS essentially showed what it has the past few runs, a northern stream that some mets think wont be as strong as depicted which means it would probably phase similar to the euro.

[Rankin5150]

GFS is too broad of a trough, and has another packet of strong energy coming in too late, because the intial low is now scooting across Ga or the coastal Carolinas. Its not a good trend at this stage of the game to see this. But we'll see if the Euro keeps the longwave trough much sharper and deeper, the GFS sure didn't.

We do have to consider that with the La Nina and based on past events, we will not be sure of exactly what we will get until 12 hours before, maybe later? I remember last Saturday when I had close to a 1/4" dusting and the day before, the temps were modeled to be much higher than what was realized and we received a more snow than what everyone thought (at lease in my area). My point is that almost all models have shown something at one point or another and then lose it again. The "flip flop" has been pretty bad this year. Still hoping for the monster to come out and slam us though!!!

[AirNelson39]

Are the 0z UKMET and Canadian out? Haven't heard much about them, could a met chime in and say how they compare to the GFS and NAM? TIA

[WeatherNC]

Typhon Tip is giving great disco about how the GFS might just be having issues. Can't quote but he thinks the GFS is having issues with the northern stream and is over playing it, he likes the Euro.

I don't know if this is still an issue with the global, but we saw it dominating with the northern stream early on, only to trends towards an ECMWF solution in the mid-range, now back to the north overwhelming. If the ens mean takes a sig shift in that direction, then I would give it some credibility. However, with the rough agreement in the 12z Euro and Ukie, pointing towards a coastal bomb, I would need those models to trend in that direction before being sold on a weaker dominant northern stream solution like the 0z GFS and NAM. The UKMET maintaining the dominant southern stream is very encouraging, as it can be better than the GFS in handling the phasing, and 3 day verification scores show it is a better model than the global at H5 in the NH.

[DixieBlizzard]

The NAM and GFS seem "kooky" compared to the EURO but it doesn't mean that those models ARE "kooky". The thing is, the southern disturbance began hauling ass around 18z, well within the NAM range. Further N at 30+. I am a little more concerned that we are seeing bad signs early in those runs which will effect how the pattern reacts downstream. So in a sense, the NAM and GFS cannot be summarily dismissed as much as many want to (including me with new BL issues!).

[packbacker]

Well atleast thru 48, the 0z GGEM appears slower than the 0z NAM.

[BIG FROSTY]

GFS was alittle drier this run for me than 18z, not that it really matters with so little to begin with. .22 qpf and 18z was .28 qpf

I think the euro will stick pretty close to the same solution it had last 6 runs. (fingers crossed)

[WidreMann]

Eh, Canadian is just weaker. Doesn't seem to be slower or faster...just weaker for some reason. Hard to tell with the b/w maps.

[Stormsfury]

C'mon SF. That was an entirely different setup though and there was a handful of models and support for a winter storm..with the gfs pretty much by itself not showing it. In this case, it's the total opposite. The euro has continued to be by itself with it's monster solution, while the rest paint a rather low to medium impact system.

And that is also what is being missed here.. I'm not saying there won't be snow, I'm specifically talking about the odds of the monster the euro has been painting.

I re-read everything and I see where the disagreement is now and that being said, the EURO for 6 runs in a row hasn't strayed at all while the others have vastly different surface depictions and even upper level depictions. Tonight's 00z run will be obviously a key run, but this situation we have right now is so threading the needle so to speak, progressive biases of the modeling, and we both know that the GFS and the GGEM have progression issues at times.

I haven't even looked at the UKIE (just got in from work) and am about to sit down and ingest some of the 00z datasets coming in. The southern stream vort that crashed into California is a beast, the ridge position that the EURO depicts is a beast, and really teleconnects well with the high latitude blocking. We may not end up with the beast that the EURO has been showing but I thoroughly believe the storm will be stronger than what the other modeling is showing also. I mean I know exactly what you're getting at, especially given this is a moderate-strong La Nina year, this shouldn't happen climatology speaking wise, but neither should drenching rains, mudslides, and widespread flooding along with mountain snows measured in yardsticks in Southern California either. Right now with the crazy setup, throw all normality out the window.

Basically speaking, is the EURO going to score a coup with this one or it is going to fall back into line with other guidance tonight. Guess will just have to be patient.

[DopplerWx]

The NAM and GFS seem "kooky" compared to the EURO but it doesn't mean that those models ARE "kooky". The thing is, the southern disturbance began hauling ass around 18z, well within the NAM range. Further N at 30+. I am a little more concerned that we are seeing bad signs early in those runs which will effect how the pattern reacts downstream. So in a sense, the NAM and GFS cannot be summarily dismissed as much as many want to (including me with new BL issues!).

The GFS was the same as the euro thru 60 though. And the nam showed the s/w hauling tail, not the GFS. They were sucky runs for different reasons.

[packbacker]

Eh, Canadian is just weaker. Doesn't seem to be slower or faster...just weaker for some reason. Hard to tell with the b/w maps.

At 72 on the GEM the LP is south of the panhandle the NAM at this time had it over Savannah. What do you think?

[BullCityWx]

[WidreMann]

At 72 on the GEM the LP is south of the panhandle the NAM at this time had it over Savannah. What do you think?

It's a lot weaker, though. It's like everything just kind of washes out. It's starting to pop a weak low along the panhandle at 72, so the timing is better than the American models, but the low is anemic and 500 is less impressive. Looks like it's trying to phase on the backside, which may just end up ****ing everything up.

[WidreMann]

SLP would be nice.

[FoothillsNC]

I don't think this is a speed issue, its an interaction issue. Where the two streams meet and interact and the orientation of both troughs is going to be absolutely crucial, and that point appears to be around eastern Ok, northeast TX and western ARK region on most models. The Euro is the only model that really has been steady with the flows and who knows it may end up being off, which of course changes things big time for us. But if its the only model that is accurately handling that interaction, then we are getting a big Gulf storm riding the East Coast. We should know more very soon. Its not time to think this is a done deal, and its certainly not time to be assured of anything, good or bad. Just looking back at this setup before with a tall ridge in western Canada and a strong southern stream coming into southern California, usually in years past, thats been a pretty good snowstorm across parts of the South. This one is extremely complex though since we have the potential for a phasing, which is usually absent.

[WeatherNC]

Just to add from the 0z UKMET, which QC posted above. 60hrs looks pretty good

72hrs it is phasing, and the coastal should pop after this

Very similar to the 0z GGEM at 72hrs, with respect to H5 and surface

[FoothillsNC]

I re-read everything and I see where the disagreement is now and that being said, the EURO for 6 runs in a row hasn't strayed at all while the others have vastly different surface depictions and even upper level depictions. Tonight's 00z run will be obviously a key run, but this situation we have right now is so threading the needle so to speak, progressive biases of the modeling, and we both know that the GFS and the GGEM have progression issues at times.

I haven't even looked at the UKIE (just got in from work) and am about to sit down and ingest some of the 00z datasets coming in. The southern stream vort that crashed into California is a beast, the ridge position that the EURO depicts is a beast, and really teleconnects well with the high latitude blocking. We may not end up with the beast that the EURO has been showing but I thoroughly believe the storm will be stronger than what the other modeling is showing also. I mean I know exactly what you're getting at, especially given this is a moderate-strong La Nina year, this shouldn't happen climatology speaking wise, but neither should drenching rains, mudslides, and widespread flooding along with mountain snows measured in yardsticks in Southern California either. Right now with the crazy setup, throw all normality out the window.

Basically speaking, is the EURO going to score a coup with this one or it is going to fall back into line with other guidance tonight. Guess will just have to be patient.

excellent post SF. The pattern we're in right now has been extremely anomalous on many different levels. I guess we can't say for sure that means we'll keep getting an anomalous result in anythng specifically, like a super type storm, but I think the pattern would favor those odds more than not

[DixieBlizzard]

The GFS was the same as the euro thru 60 though. And the nam showed the s/w hauling tail, not the GFS. They were sucky runs for different reasons.

Go back and re-read what I said before you correct it. I said specifically at 18z was hauling ass, well within the NAM range. The only thing I said about the GFS is that it cannot be summarily dismissed along with the NAM. I am sorry it's not fluff but it's the truth. I am hoping for another blockbuster run of the EURO but without agreement from somewhere else it becomes, what folks around here call, the outlier. Does it mean it's wrong? You be the judge but this cannot be great signs for the epic we all hoped for but the model madness is far from over.

Edit: Thanks Robert for the post regarding the speed of the system. Food for thought but I thought the interaction was based a lot on timing as well. Still learning this after 43 years!! My bets are certainly hedged at this point.

[burgertime]

00z Canadian...

[Carvers Gap]

I don't know if this is still an issue with the global, but we saw it dominating with the northern stream early on, only to trends towards an ECMWF solution in the mid-range, now back to the north overwhelming. If the ens mean takes a sig shift in that direction, then I would give it some credibility. However, with the rough agreement in the 12z Euro and Ukie, pointing towards a coastal bomb, I would need those models to trend in that direction before being sold on a weaker dominant northern stream solution like the 0z GFS and NAM. The UKMET maintaining the dominant southern stream is very encouraging, as it can be better than the GFS in handling the phasing, and 3 day verification scores show it is a better model than the global at H5 in the NH.

Conundrum - A paradoxical, insoluble, or difficult problem; a dilemma. I think that's is where the Euro and the GFS have taken us tonight.

In college you(not you personally WNC, just a general you) think that you can hang w/ Div. I athletes. You see them walking around campus, and it's like, they aren't that big. Then one of those athletes sneaks into an intramural football game, and they dominate because they are that much better. That's what it is like listening to the radio show on AmericanWx. As a winter weather hobbyist, I know just enough to be dangerous...from interacting on this board and along w/ the information from the one meteorology course I could dig up at UT in the early 90s. Those mets are the D-I athletes of meteorology. Man, they could seriously break down the pattern and each model's nuance. Impressive. We have many mets on the SE board w/ similar talents.

[FoothillsNC]

Just to add from the 0z UKMET, which QC posted above. 60hrs looks pretty good

72hrs it is phasing, and the coastal should pop after th

It looks like on those maps the model loses the southern wave totally once its off the Texas coast. It really has a northern dominant look, I think its a little quick to diminish the southern wave like that in 12 hours. However the northern stream looks pretty amped up and poised to create something (if it hadn't killed the southern )

[snowlover91]

00z Canadian...

That appears to be the old run, the new canadian is a lot drier looking Burger.

[FoothillsNC]

Tonights Canadian makes no sense. At 60 hours the southern wave is going off the coast of Texas and by 72 hours whats left of it is in the central Gulf. Then the next panel sparks a new northern Gulf low thanks to new energy in the northern stream diving in, but thats not phasing at all. Its an entirely different low, not the phase job the Euro has.

[WeatherNC]

That appears to be the old run, the new canadian is a lot drier looking Burger.

0z UKMET looks horrible!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=6&nh=1&archive=0

[burrel2]

Tonights Canadian makes no sense. At 60 hours the southern wave is going off the coast of Texas and by 72 hours whats left of it is in the central Gulf. Then the next panel sparks a new northern Gulf low thanks to new energy in the northern stream diving in, but thats not phasing at all. Its an entirely different low, not the phase job the Euro has.

What is really confusing me is just how different the models are handling the southern wave only 48hours from now? How can the NAM trend towards phasing that energy in way early and way north, and then the ggem/ukie send the energy down towards the gulf??

And if you want a real laugh, go see what the NOGAPS does with the southern wave.... it stalls it in Texas for a few days and then finally lets it exit off the coast near Brownsville....????

[HKY18]

GEFS looks good at 84 and the gfs ensemble is west of the op so thats about the only good news so far

[Shawn]

Kind of funny how since this s/w came on shore, the models are going nuts. Every one of them has a different solution from before now it seems. Terrible trends honestly.

[WidreMann]

Well, now that the other 00z models are coming in terrible, maybe I'll back off. I'd still give it another day since these kind of flip-flops can happen. But the trends tonight are not encouraging.