burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 00z run of the Euro is going to be extremely interesting. Got to wonder if it finally buckles tonight and falls a little more in line with the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I feel like its not cliff diving time yet. The NAM's problem was that it had the s/w too fast. The GFS looks perfect up to 60hr then the northern stream crushed the s/w which is what the gfs has been showing since yesterday. IF it is just the GFS bias in play then theres not much to worry about because if it were not for the strong northern stream we would have a euro-like phase. What would have really sent me looking for a cliff would have been if the GFS had the s/w fast like the NAM, but it didn't. In other words, if the 00z euro shows a monster hit I think we will be sitting where we were last night at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yep, this run looks like total crap for us. Nam wasn't great either. We are getting within that time range where indeed we are running out of time. I know everyone keeps wanting to downplay these models in favor of the euro but think about this, the nam/gfs have these solutions because in part in as little as 48 hours they are showing more interaction with the northern stream. That's not a hell of a long ways away folks. There's still time but these 0z runs are a pretty big blow imo because they should have had better data ingestion of our southern disturbance. We aren't anywhere near the time range of running out of time. The s/w isn't supposed to get east of the Rockies until Friday and still has two more days to get close to the east coast. The Euro was showing the bomb at 96 hours. If this were 24-36 hours out, I'd be more worried. I expect this crap in this time range with the GFS and the NAM. They had three improved runs today and then have trouble at 00z. They've been utterly inconsistent and were wrong about the low crashing ashore in California. If the GFS shows consistent behavior, then we can start worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 66 hours, the NAM and GFS are nearly identical. If the EURO holds serve tonight, what an incredible difference it'll have to be at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 00z run of the Euro is going to be extremely interesting. Got to wonder if it finally buckles tonight and falls a little more in line with the GFS and NAM. I'm thinking it will stick to the really strong amplified pattern, but just guessing. The GFS isn't too bad at 5H but has to much northern energy coming in which probably makes a big difference . The Euro didn't have that, it put all its eggs in one basket. Guess we'll find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Still a very long way to go on this. I expect the GFS to continue to trend toward a Euro solution. I also expect the euro to begin trending towards a gfs solution. I think there would be a lot of very happy people should that occur. As for the extreme event, that is still very much on the table. All the required ingredients are available. It's really just a matter of timing. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 with the nam/gfs trending back and forth, essentially a flip flop from where they were going at 12z and 18z. what are the thoughts of the mets if the euro once again holds its guns and throws down bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm willing to put $100 euro comes in as a mix between nam and gfs. No way it keeps the same scenario or even a close scenario to what it has been depicting. Call me Debbie Downer but we are too close for all the models to be 'off' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 00z run of the Euro is going to be extremely interesting. Got to wonder if it finally buckles tonight and falls a little more in line with the GFS and NAM. We should get a subtle hint here shortly with the Canadian and espeacilly the UKIE. Need our southern-wave to slow down. I hear alot about the new data being ingested. Not sure when these models started initializing, but I think our storm has been on-shore out there (cA) for a few hours now. So If this is American model hiccup because all the shortwave data isn't ingetsted or The ULL data is missing up in the NW somewhere that got referenced earlier, we will be able to discount those reasons with 100% assurance at 6z and definetly by tomorrows lunch time runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GFS looks good until about 60hrs and then the northern stream crushes the southern shortwave. Broad weak surface low forms in southeastern GA as more northern energy dives into the trough. I am going to go out on a limb here and comment that MOST (I will have to go back and look or a Pro can chime in) of the Carolinas BIG storms have materialized from systems like these. 'I remember the proverbial "flie in the ointment" from GSP during the 2003 snowstorm. We were only forecasted a meager 1-2", but a ULL swung around the apps and a def zone set up shop and we were sitting on 8-12", depending on which area you were in. All I am saying is that we all know that most of us will see some wintry weather. I BET there will be so many more swings in the next day or day and a half. I am very surprised at how the EURO has stuck to it's guns and had basically (or darn close) the same look the past 5 or 6 runs. Like Beanskip alluded to, this is "sink or swim" for the EURO, in terms of verification score, when all is said and done. Basically, my EXPECATIONS have been 1-2" and I am happy as can be. If we get more, then its a bonus. After last year, my expectations are a lot different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm thinking it will stick to the really strong amplified pattern, but just guessing. The GFS isn't too bad at 5H but has to much northern energy coming in which probably makes a big difference . The Euro didn't have that, it put all its eggs in one basket. Guess we'll find out. Yea we shall see...seems to odd that it would stick to it's guns then just flip all of the sudden. Even if it does hold serve it's still gonna come down to the last minute like usual for us, even with a pretty much perfect setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 One thing I notice on 'this' particular run is how long SC and Eastern NC stay above freezing, both at the surface and at the 850 level - unless I'm reading it totally wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We should get a subtle hint here shortly with the Canadian and espeacilly the UKIE. Need our shortwave to slow down. I hear alot about the new data being ingested. Not sure when these models started initializing, but I think our storm has been on-shore out there (cA) for a few hours now. So If this is American model hiccup because all the shortwave data isn't ingetsted or The ULL data is missing up in the NW somewhere that got referenced earlier, we will be able to discount those reasons with 100% assurance at 6z and definetly by tomorrows lunch time runs. ukmet is out through 72 and it looks complete different than the gfs/nam aloft. can't see if it pops a low but it brings the southern vort into the gulf of mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm willing to put $100 euro comes in as a mix between nam and gfs. No way it keeps the same scenario or even a close scenario to what it has been depicting. Call me Debbie Downer but we are too close for all the models to be 'off' 4 days isn't "close". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We aren't anywhere near the time range of running out of time. The s/w isn't supposed to get east of the Rockies until Friday and still has two more days to get close to the east coast. The Euro was showing the bomb at 96 hours. If this were 24-36 hours out, I'd be more worried. I expect this crap in this time range with the GFS and the NAM. They had three improved runs today and then have trouble at 00z. They've been utterly inconsistent and were wrong about the low crashing ashore in California. If the GFS shows consistent behavior, then we can start worrying. Reread my post because you missed my point. My point is it's 48 hours away from the point where the gfs/nam have interaction between the southern shortwave and the northern stream and that is CRUCIAL to what happens here on day 3 and 4. I'm not saying we are out of time by any means. But to me the 0z runs tonight were big because of better data ingestion which everyone has talked about for the last day or two. To simply say screw it, that doesn't matter now because we don't like what it is showing isn't really smart imo. It's not over though for sure but one has to look at this rationally. You are a strange one. Earlier you were throwing in the towel based on nothing, now you post this. Funny. Don't worry though because no matter what happens, I'm sure you will see snow..probably more than most on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 ukmet is out through 72 and it looks complete different than the gfs/nam aloft. can't see if it pops a low but it brings the southern vort into the gulf of mexico. Yep, it's rather amazing how much spread there is in the "better sampled" shortwave. The NAM has it much faster and phasing way early, the gfs is very euro like with it's position but then squashes it, then the UKMET sends it down towards the gulf coast??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 <br />4 days isn't "close".<br /><br /><br /><br />We are less than 3 days from this thing starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Typhon Tip is giving great disco about how the GFS might just be having issues. Can't quote but he thinks the GFS is having issues with the northern stream and is over playing it, he likes the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> We are less than 3 days from this thing starting Still a long time. I've seen NW trends start in under 36 hours and be fairly significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> We are less than 3 days from this thing starting And that is a long time in modeling terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 957 PM EST WED DEC 22 2010 -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 957 PM WEDNESDAY... THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING SE THROUGH OUR REGION THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT AT MID EVENING WAS LOCATED THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. CAA HAS BEGUN AS WELL IN THE NW WHERE THE TEMPERATURES HAD FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH 20S IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. READINGS IN THE S-SE WERE STILL IN THE 40S FROM CHARLOTTE TO FAYETTEVILLE. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS THIS EVENING... BUT THEY HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE. EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. NW WINDS AT 10 MPH WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES... THEN DECREASE TO 5-10 MPH. LOWS SHOULD STILL MAKE THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 FROM W-N THROUGH SE. THE LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER AND WETTER ECMWF INCLUDING THE 00Z/NAM AND 18Z/GFS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OUR REGION ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE (WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE TRACKS) GIVING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW EVEN IN THE TRIAD REGION. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Spot on Not really because he didn't even comprehend correctly what I was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We aren't anywhere near the time range of running out of time. The s/w isn't supposed to get east of the Rockies until Friday and still has two more days to get close to the east coast. The Euro was showing the bomb at 96 hours. If this were 24-36 hours out, I'd be more worried. I expect this crap in this time range with the GFS and the NAM. They had three improved runs today and then have trouble at 00z. They've been utterly inconsistent and were wrong about the low crashing ashore in California. If the GFS shows consistent behavior, then we can start worrying. you know this couldn't be more accurate of a statement. Remember what the GFS did 3 DAYS OUT ON FEBRUARY 9TH 2010 when the EC/GGEM said YES and somehow someway the GFS sends the Feb 12th storm into Cuba. It's just something about the GFS and it always seems to miss Southeast events until very near game time anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Someone might want to make a part V before the Euro hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Typhon Tip is giving great disco about how the GFS might just be having issues. Can't quote but he thinks the GFS is having issues with the northern stream and is over playing it, he likes the Euro. Heard it. Best discussion of the evening on the radio show. I hope folks in Carolina are listening. He gave a highly technical answer about how energy from the northern and southern streams interact. Liked his comment about how difficult it is for models to come up w/ a viable solution in regards to phasing outside of 72 hours. Tip felt that the model runs this evening were very positive for the Mid Atlantic - I'm assuming North Carolina as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Each time the GFS shows a non-storm solution, it's a completely different reason. Sometimes it phases too early. Sometimes it's too fast. Sometimes the ocean low is too strong and shunts the storm OTS. It's clearly not handling the atmosphere correctly. The 500 maps look different on each run, not just with the s/w, but in Canada and the Atlantic. It's clearly having some trouble. It's been inconsistent. We went from a wound up low off the coast to nothing in one run. And you guys want to trust this model? It's just barely inside the 4 day range, and that's assuming the faster (and probably spurious) solution. The northern stream is often faster, but the southern stream isn't usually. That's why I don't buy this garbage. If the GFS is settles on the *same* non-storm solution tomorrow night at 00z after several consistent runs, then we can start throwing in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yep, it's rather amazing how much spread there is in the "better sampled" shortwave. The NAM has it much faster and phasing way early, the gfs is very euro like with it's position but then squashes it, then the UKMET sends it down towards the gulf coast??? WE should not be suprised the GFS came out looking like the NAM. Allen has posted on 2 seperate occasions in the last 24 hours that the NAM uses alot of gfs grid/schematics for its hr 60-84 range. Not sure if its the 18z gfs info, or just the fundamentals/calculations to resolve and produce its output-forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not really because he didn't even comprehend correctly what I was saying. Yes, I did. You can pick any arbitrary point that is close in time and say that it's so close that it means the whole game is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 you know this couldn't be more accurate of a statement. Remember what the GFS did 3 DAYS OUT ON FEBRUARY 9TH 2010 when the EC/GGEM said YES and somehow someway the GFS sends the Feb 12th storm into Cuba. It's just something about the GFS and it always seems to miss Southeast events until very near game time anyways. C'mon SF. That was an entirely different setup though and there was a handful of models and support for a winter storm..with the gfs pretty much by itself not showing it. In this case, it's the total opposite. The euro has continued to be by itself with it's monster solution, while the rest paint a rather low to medium impact system. And that is also what is being missed here.. I'm not saying there won't be snow, I'm specifically talking about the odds of the monster the euro has been painting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 <br />Someone might want to make a part V before the Euro hits.<br /><br /><br /><br />Only Cold Rain is allowed to do that, he's kinda our good luck charm for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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