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Christmas Storm IV


Cold Rain

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So, has the Euro's bias of holding energy back been an error? In other words, has the Euro mistakingly slowed the southern stream energy down and thus allowed a phase w/ each run?

The holding back of closed lows on the Euro isn't the same as it normally is in this case. When we talk about the Euro holding it back its usually on a major 3 or 4 contour cutoff in which you have the jetstream riding over it in the Pac. Northwest, leaving a wobbling closed low in the Southwest days at a time. Thats the bias of the Euro holding energy back. This time, we don't have that. We have a totally progressive southern stream.

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So, has the Euro's bias of holding energy back been an error? In other words, has the Euro mistakingly slowed the southern stream energy down and thus allowed a phase w/ each run?

If so, I would think it would pick up on that in the next run having new data.

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So, has the Euro's bias of holding energy back been an error? In other words, has the Euro mistakingly slowed the southern stream energy down and thus allowed a phase w/ each run?

usually that bias is more associated with cut off southwest lows that drop in from the northern stream not so much these types of systems.

Could the Euro flip, of course it is a model. I want to look at the full suite of 00z data not make any judgments off of a regional scale model heavily influenced by boundary conditions.

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guys (and gals)..........we really are in UNchartered territory already with this thing. Can anyone (including mets) recall as many consecutive runs of the Euro where NO other model shows a phased solution, this close to an event? I would think this has never happened, but I could be wrong. Very very interesting.

Every model shows a phased solution, it's a question of when and where.

The 0z nam shouldn't be totally discounted imo because one of the reasons it arrives at this solution is it's faster with the southwest shortwave from the start. This causes a different interaction with the northern stream and not the phase/bomb we want. It might be wrong but it's a little worrisome it's faster from the very start. Hopefully the rest of the guidance doesn't follow suite.

Indeed, hpc just updated as I was finished writing this post

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

1019 PM EST WED DEC 22 2010

VALID DEC 23/0000 UTC THRU DEC 26/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR

INGEST...

00Z/23 NAM EVALUATION

ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM DO NOT APPEAR TO

SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT ITS SOLUTION.

...SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THIS

PERIOD...

THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z/22 ECMWF WITH THIS

IMPULSE...SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH ENERGY TO THE NORTH OVER

THE MIDWEST EARLIER THAN THE EC.

...BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE WEST COAST...

THE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE 12Z/22 ECMWF

WITH THIS BOUNDARY IS THE HANDLING OF THE WAVE OFF CALIFORNIA DAY

3. THE NAM IS FASTER AND MORE DEVELOPED THAN THE EC WITH THIS

IMPULSE...DELAYING THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ONSHORE.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT

WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

CISCO

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The holding back of closed lows on the Euro isn't the same as it normally is in this case. When we talk about the Euro holding it back its usually on a major 3 or 4 contour cutoff in which you have the jetstream riding over it in the Pac. Northwest, leaving a wobbling closed low in the Southwest days at a time. Thats the bias of the Euro holding energy back. This time, we don't have that. We have a totally progressive southern stream.

Robert - Does the fact that the Euro has shown basicially an identical solution for the last 6 or 7 runs increase your confidence in it's solution? Just curious.

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The holding back of closed lows on the Euro isn't the same as it normally is in this case. When we talk about the Euro holding it back its usually on a major 3 or 4 contour cutoff in which you have the jetstream riding over it in the Pac. Northwest, leaving a wobbling closed low in the Southwest days at a time. Thats the bias of the Euro holding energy back. This time, we don't have that. We have a totally progressive southern stream.

If so, I would think it would pick up on that in the next run having new data.

usually that bias is more associated with cut off southwest lows that drop in from the northern stream not so much these types of systems.

Could the Euro flip, of course it is a model. I want to look at the full suite of 00z data not make any judgments off of a regional scale model heavily influenced by boundary conditions.

Thanks for the responses. I had always remembered that on cut-off lows as well. I didn't realize that progressive SLPs didn't have that error. And I highly doubt the Euro will flip FWIW. I always find it interesting when a model hiccups.

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Robert - Does the fact that the Euro has shown basicially an identical solution for the last 6 or 7 runs increase your confidence in it's solution? Just curious.

yes. I thnk looking at the NAm and comparing it to euro I see how in 42 hours the NAM is already starting to interact with the southern stream and pretty far north, which begins to shear the southern stream My main point all along is the strength of the southern stream and its resilience, On the Euro the southern stream heads toward southern La, but not on tonights NAM. Its a different interaction between those 2 models with the streams. Also on the nam its northern stream has probably 2 different shortwaves, and it allows the first wave to pick up and start the phasing then later you see more shortwaves come in toward the Midwest.

Guess we have to wait to see the Euro and what it has in store tonight.

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