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Christmas Storm IV

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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brettjrob

brettjrob

Posted
Posted

Your location says Norman, Ok? And the NAM raw data does leave a slight snowfall for HSV , under an inch.

In town (actually Madison) to visit family until New Years. It looks like 2m T remains above 35 F through 18z, when the last of the QPF occurs, so it would be wet non-accumulating snow at best.

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

Posted
Posted

looks like snow north of ATL? For the most part but maybe some rain to start. The nam gives about .25" in a lot of places and a few spots of .50"

south of the perimeter all rain until a tiny bit of snow at the end. Here is the 21Z KPDK sounding, probably too warm at the surface.

LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W

mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

0 1000 106

SFC 977 292 3.7 2.8 94 0.9 3.3 258 3 278.7 279.5 277.5 291.8 4.77

2 975 311 3.4 258 3 278.5

3 950 521 1.6 1.6 100 0.0 1.6 247 6 278.8 279.6 277.3 291.2 4.51

4 925 736 0.2 249 9 279.6

5 900 955 -0.6 -0.7 100 0.0 -0.7 252 12 280.8 281.5 277.7 292.1 4.04

6 875 1180 -1.1 251 15 282.6

7 850 1411 -1.5 -1.6 99 0.1 -1.6 241 16 284.6 285.3 279.5 295.9 3.99

8 825 1649 -1.9 231 20 286.6

9 800 1894 -2.4 -2.5 99 0.1 -2.4 228 26 288.6 289.3 281.4 300.1 3.97

But I am pretty sure this run is wrong, so hopefully this is a moot point.

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SBUWX23

SBUWX23

Posted
Posted

Anyone here think that MAYBE the new radiosonde data initialized into the model then integrated over time points to this type of solution moreso than the biblical one? Anything is possible here and maybe the southern stream wave will be faster. Dont discount it just because its not the euro.

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DixieBlizzard

DixieBlizzard

Posted
Posted

What in the H has happened????

Really, Brian? Go have some more champagne and animal crackers.

I am looking forward to seeing the GFS and EURO tonight. We are still in the extended range of the NAM and we will know soon enough if this new, ingested data will change all the rest of the models in the 0z suite. The NAM is not a complete loss for my area but I would love to see something epic like the EURO has had. See you guys later tonight.

Edit: "Epic" for other areas of the South. I would have taken and will take my 4" and sing White Christmas all day long!

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

Anyone here think that MAYBE the new radiosonde data initialized into the model then integrated over time points to this type of solution moreso than the biblical one? Anything is possible here and maybe the southern stream wave will be faster. Dont discount it just because its not the euro.

I agree 100% I've seen the euro bury me many times and end up with nothing, So I don't trust it either until we get a little closer.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Ok, so the NAM is faster all of a sudden. Why? It seems the new radiosonde data was ingested into the model, but another post says that balloons were not launched in the area where the S/W is coming ashore. IF that is the case, then why would the NAM speed things up much more so than any of its previous runs? Looks like NC still does OK this run, but nobody's measuring in feet. And by the way, the NAM has yet to show the Biblical Euro solution, although it seemed that earlier runs were hinting in that direction.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Anyone here think that MAYBE the new radiosonde data initialized into the model then integrated over time points to this type of solution moreso than the biblical one? Anything is possible here and maybe the southern stream wave will be faster. Dont discount it just because its not the euro.

Yep and I know for my area it isn't a bad run considering it's Christmas. Would love for the Euro to be right but this seems more like what would probably end up happening. Then again I really don't know much about the over all dynamics setting it up.

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tgarren

tgarren

Posted
Posted

it at no point closes off the low and that is something that i dont recall any of the models doing in the last 10 runs it seems. even the ones that ended up with less than biblical solutions. wait for the other 0z models to run before some of you start jumping off cliffs.

also for NC this solution is not exactly terrible if you consider our climo. this would still likely be the most snow GSO and RDU have seen on Christmas since records have been kept.

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

Anyone here think that MAYBE the new radiosonde data initialized into the model then integrated over time points to this type of solution moreso than the biblical one? Anything is possible here and maybe the southern stream wave will be faster. Dont discount it just because its not the euro.

I think it's possible. I've seen things change a many of times once the system makes landfall and is initialized w/ more data but I'll need to see it from other models before I believe it. If the gfs and euro both have changes tonight I think the increased data would have something to do w/ that. I'm curious to know what your thinking is.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Well HPC didn't like the 12z NAM earlier today and from the 0z model thread it stated "Apparently the Vanderburg AFB RAOB doesn't launch at 00z.. that data gap is right over where the ULL is.. that is disappointing." So maybe this can explain the latest 0z NAM (I hope).

PREFERENCE: EQUAL BLEND GFS/ECMWFTHE NAM BEGINS TO STRAY FROM THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ASEARLY AS DAY 2 WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SPLIT CROSSING THEROCKIES...WITH ITS SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAMSPLIT CROSSING TEXAS/GULF COAST INCREASINGLY IN QUESTION LATER INTHE PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO THE NAM LYING NEAR THE OUTER EDGES OFTHE ENTIRE SOLUTION SPECTRUM WITH THE TROUGH'S FUTUREEVOLUTION...AT LEAST A PORTION OF ITS DISCREPANCY CAN BE TRACED TOSLIGHTLY WORSE INITIALIZATION IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE OF NORTHERNCALIFORNIA. REGARDING THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...MODEL SPREAD

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Alright smart _ _ _ !

Lookout said not to post such things in this thread. Those are to go in the Banter Thread.

Our in-house WRF model has a lot better look than the NAM, slower and sharper. a 1008 mb low over the FL Panhandle XMAS 00z

How reliable is that model?

The NAM certainly makes me have some doubts, but I'm not going to hit the panic button yet. If the 0z GFS and 0z Euro go the way of the NAM, then there may be some valid concerns.

Truth be told, the NAM appears to still produce a 1-3" event here, but after the mega runs of the Euro, I want a significant snowfall (I'm greedy, haha).

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

I will just say this... I have never based a forecast discussion in the 60-84 hr range based off the NAMs forecast synoptic pattern. :)

I agree. I know most Winters we in the southeast are carefully looking at it and discecting it at the 60 to 84 hours and trying to find an inkling of something wintry if we're in a potential close call, only to really get burned by it. Because it totally flips and has a different solution almost every time past 48 hours. Todays trend toward the Euro was probably dumb luck. I'm still very encouraged at the big potential of the Euro becuase of the huge ridge and all models have that along with the angle of the digging northern stream. It seems most models are so quick to erode the southern stream, but the Euro didn't , it kept it a neutral tilt trough, and dug the whole phase process much further south than most models and still maintained the integrity of the phase, with a very sharp base trough, which is able to yield and explosive storm.

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weatherfide

weatherfide

Posted
Posted

I agree. I know most Winters we in the southeast are carefully looking at it and discecting it at the 60 to 84 hours and trying to find an inkling of something wintry if we're in a potential close call, only to really get burned by it. Because it totally flips and has a different solution almost every time past 48 hours. Todays trend toward the Euro was probably dumb luck. I'm still very encouraged at the big potential of the Euro becuase of the huge ridge and all models have that along with the angle of the digging northern stream. It seems most models are so quick to erode the southern stream, but the Euro didn't , it kept it a neutral tilt trough, and dug the whole phase process much further south than most models and still maintained the integrity of the phase, with a very sharp base trough, which is able to yield and explosive storm.

Yes, but the data inputs for the last 12z Euro run are stale. We need all of the model output from the 0z runs before jumping, right? 12z was fun, but it's solution has expired now.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Yes, but the data inputs for the last 12z Euro run are stale. We need all of the model output from the 0z runs before jumping, right? 12z was fun, but it's solution has expired now.

Which 12z and which model? If you mean the 12Z ECMWF then what about its 00z solution ? and 12z yesterday , and the 00z yesterday, and the 12z the day before? Its a better model at 120 hours than the NAM is at 60 I think.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

I will just say this... I have never based a forecast decision in the 60-84 hr range based off the NAMs forecast synoptic pattern. :)

Agreed! I would have to see the global operationals trend towards a faster, dominant northern stream solution at this stage, and as of yet, we have not seen that. It was impressive yesterday when we saw the NAM at 84 almost in step with the EC, but this run not so much, really not at all. Don't jump the bus yet, based on one run of the NAM. Consensus atm does not favor this solution, sure that could change but the agreement in the ens means strongly supports a different solution than what this model just showed, in a period outside of its useful range.

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Weather Czar

Weather Czar

Posted
Posted

Yes, but the data inputs for the last 12z Euro run are stale. We need all of the model output from the 0z runs before jumping, right? 12z was fun, but it's solution has expired now.

Lol.. Six runs in a row of the best model and for the last three it has gotten stronger. We should throw all the consistency out?

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CandymanColumbusGA

CandymanColumbusGA

Posted
Posted

Just looking at Water Vapor... the southern stream is moving at a VERY fast pace. If it keeps this up, we could see something like the NAM shows.... But again, that's just what I am seeing and I am not used to talking about phasing, so I don't know if Water Vapor has anything to do with phases or not... Thanks!

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

The NAM does pop a 1006mb low righ ton the SC coast at hour 78. It is showing some phasing, but because the southern stream system is quicker, we are going to see a slider that doest phase in time. Slow the s/w down like the Euro shows and you get a big storm.

So, has the Euro's bias of holding energy back been an error? In other words, has the Euro mistakingly slowed the southern stream energy down and thus allowed a phase w/ each run?

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