DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hopefully this is just the models waffling until the late 00z runs when they get more sampling for the s/w and they trend back south. I hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I hope this faster run from the NAM isn't an indication of a well sampled wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks weak and a little strung out @66...I'm with Wow send it back from whence it came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It looks like by 60 or 63 hours the southern ULL is completely disintegrated and teh northern stream has taken over. I really and truly doubt that. The southern stream system is robust. The Euro was a little slower with it and also had it healthier looking all the way into east Texas and I dont see anything close to that in this NAM run. Hopefully just being the NAM. Lookin at the qpf through 66, its extremely light except west of the Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hopefully this is just the models waffling until the late 00z runs when they get more sampling for the s/w and they trend back south. I hope... The new 00z balloon launches are in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 check out sims at 60, line of storms reaching down to gulf. Looks almost like a posotive tilted cold front sweeping the deep south, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Sfc low in south Ga. @ 69. I'll say the samething now as I do when the nam is showing a raging snowstorm for me. It is the nam and I don't trust it. Others do, and that's fine, but I just don't like the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Is this the NAM picking up on a progressive La Nina pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hopefully this is just the models waffling until the late 00z runs when they get more sampling for the s/w and they trend back south. I hope... I am going to need my nerve pills before long, y'all quit saying bad stuff...lol :scooter::snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 1012 low off Southeast Geogia. Meh. Check out the mega ridge and deep east Pac trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I vote to disable smiley icons on the board! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 <br />i've seen enough. i'm tossing it... at least for now<br /><br /><br /><br />Reminds me of the GFS last year sending that LPS to Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 1012 low off Southeast Geogia. Meh. Check out the mega ridge and deep east Pac trough. The sad thing is if we haven't seen the monster the euro has been showing for 6 runs now, people would be loving this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I do not think any of us really thought that all models would show mega snow storm every run for 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Its one run but several people still see a light snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The sad thing is if we haven't seen the monster the euro has been showing for 6 runs now, people would be loving this run. Not north GA folks, all rain here. I just hope its a typical NAM run, i.e. it is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The sad thing is if we haven't seen the monster the euro has been showing for 6 runs now, people would be loving this run. true. I'd take 2 tl 4" on Christmas, but still I think many are hoping for the big kahoona. The good news is the NAM is flipping so much, its not a stable model for sure. The Euro has atleast been stable. But who knows maybe the NAMwith its new data is on to something. Hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not north GA folks, all rain here. I just hope its a typical NAM run, i.e. it is wrong. Oh Lord, I need to open another bottle of Champagne.....:popcorn:What is happening??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You know, if the result of this storm is anything close to what the Euro has been depicting for its last 6 runs, it will be as big a coup as one could imagine a computer model scoring. But if we end up with this kind of result -- flurries to an inch or so -- the SE kinfolk will never ever trust that model again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not north GA folks, all rain here. I just hope its a typical NAM run, i.e. it is wrong. Look at 72 if you haven't yet, that's at least .1" QPF for the metro with 850s a hair above freezing at 66 and dropping quickly. Not much but there would be snow flying it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Isn't this kind of a middle of the road solution? By that I mean isn't this probably more what climo would favor? I understand with all the players on the field something more amplified would likely take place but just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 From the 0z model thread: Apparently the Vanderburg AFB RAOB doesn't launch at 00z.. that data gap is right over where the ULL is.. that is disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM does pop a 1006mb low righ ton the SC coast at hour 78. It is showing some phasing, but because the southern stream system is quicker, we are going to see a slider that doest phase in time. Slow the s/w down like the Euro shows and you get a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not north GA folks, all rain here. I just hope its a typical NAM run, i.e. it is wrong. Yeah, it's too warm even up here in HSV for the duration of our precip. Pretty crappy for most everyone involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Question?---Forget >48hrs. Do the first 24-36hrs of the NAM out west seem plausible right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not north GA folks, all rain here. I just hope its a typical NAM run, i.e. it is wrong. Really? It looked like snow. Of course I haven't checked soundings and you would know better than me. I know the 2m temps are a little higher but 850's looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not north GA folks, all rain here. I just hope its a typical NAM run, i.e. it is wrong. looks like snow north of ATL? For the most part but maybe some rain to start. The nam gives about .25" in a lot of places and a few spots of .50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You know, if the result of this storm is anything close to what the Euro has been depicting for its last 6 runs, it will be as big a coup as one could imagine a computer model scoring. But if we end up with this kind of result -- flurries to an inch or so -- the SE kinfolk will never ever trust that model again. Bean you make a good point. The Euro has been SO insistant on this solution, that if it is wrong, I think it take a bit of a credibility hit. BUT if it's right, it re emphasizes why it's King. We will see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, it's too warm even up here in HSV for the duration of our precip. Pretty crappy for most everyone involved. Your location says Norman, Ok? And the NAM raw data does leave a slight snowfall for HSV , under an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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