SBUWX23 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 6" would be enough to call the fail zone over here :thumbsup: :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We have landfall..Hello s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Pardon the stupid question, but I believe last year we had a storm come on a similar track that tapped into the gulf pretty well. However, the convection that fired up in the gulf killed the moisture train. Is that not a concern with this storm because the moisture will be pulled from the Atlantic? Sorry for the amateurish question, but the board is quieter now, so I thought I throw that out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 BUMP.... interesting discussion from the 17th. Go back and review. http://www.americanw...post__p__125346 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We have landfall..Hello s/w Balloons go up at 2300Z so looks like we should have some good data on the S/W tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nam is out to 6 and looks south and stronger than the 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @9 south of the 18Z position. By a small amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I wonder if data from the wave is included in the 00z set? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 S/W looks stronger at 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nam is out to 6 and looks south and stronger than the 18Z actually looks weaker at 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 21 it's closed off in NW NM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 S/W looks stronger at 18 really? looks a bit weaker to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Definitely weaker at 24 edit 18 -- considerably so. actually looks weaker at 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 21 it's closed off in NW NM! it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 comparing wrong frame. sorry.. really? looks a bit weaker to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 it is? That's what i see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Little healthier looking at 24 -- and a bit faster than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 27 it's open and in East central NM. And good ridge out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Is it just me, or is that northern stream coming in faster this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Vort is more consolidated and a little south @ 30HR compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Maybe its me but looking to see whether its open or closed is basically useless at this point. I think speed and overall strength of the vorticity are most important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This may be over reading into the strength differences but I suppose it is possible depending on which mountains it crosses and terrain the vort would be impacted in the model (higher mountains and vorticity weakens more at the peaks). Someone can correct me if I am wrong on how well the NAM handles terrain with respect to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This may be over reading into the strength differences but I suppose it is possible depending on which mountains it crosses and terrain the vort would be impacted in the model (higher mountains and vorticity weakens more at the peaks). Someone can correct me if I am wrong on how well the NAM handles terrain with respect to this. NAM is run at 12km grid spacing and should have a much better terrain in it. For those who are unaware, vorticity in the column shrinks as it goes over the mountain peaks and strethches as it comes out on the leeward side. This is why we see a low pressure or inverted pressure trough once it gets east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 is the storm going to phase a little sooner that expected? If so maybe a little more inland track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 seems like there's already a little phasing occuring at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 is the storm going to phase a little sooner that expected? If so maybe a little more inland track? Can we let the model finish first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hmmm. Looks like a little phasing @ 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Please wait for the analysis after. I know we all want to know what the hell is going to happen. Patience. is the storm going to phase a little sooner that expected? If so maybe a little more inland track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 East of 12z @ 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 36, Ocean low also getting out of the way a bit earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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