Christmas Storm IV

[lilj4425]

Bufkit gives GSP .3 in total snow accumulation: http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kgsp.dat I thought it would be all snow. Color me confused.

[rosie]

Look at the ratios!

Where would I find that info for N GA? Thanks!

[burgertime]

Checking from my phone it's great to see the gfs taking big steps in the right direction. Can't wait to see the 00z tonight of both runs. As for the inland runner I could see that happening as well I think we can all agree though even if we got three inches we would all be very happy.

[strongwxnc]

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/

Play around with this site...

Where would I find that info for N GA? Thanks!

[VeronicaCorningstone]

It gives you 18.8" of SN, compared to 6" on the 12z run. Look at your soundings (twisterdata) and thickness profiles (RaleighWX's model page), to get a better picture of implications of a slight westward shift. If an inland track were going to occur, I would expect to see at-least a couple ens members pick up on it, even 1. But the 12z GGEM and GFS members are all right along the coast, or for the majority, just offshore. As long as you are on the east side of the low by about 30 miles, you should be fine Veronica.

http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_krwi.dat

Yeah, I refreshed the page (guess all the data wasn't in?) and all was good. I had the same problem with the site last night, too.

I hope Falkland gets pounded and you and your son don't have to travel for a big snow storm this year My parents (and most all of my family) live there and while my parents couldn't give a rat's hindparts about snow, I've got a lot of young cousins who never saw March '80. That area is long overdue for an epic snowstorm.

[VeronicaCorningstone]

Look at the ratios!

Yeah, when I first looked, all the data wasn't in. All good now - and yeah - those ratios are ridiculous (ridiculously awesome) especially towards the end.

[WidreMann]

The 12z Euro ensembles are east of the OP, likewise with the 18z GFS. If there is going to be a massive northward and westward trend, enough to put the piedmont and coastal plain in danger of rain, it's going to need to start soon and require a massive reconfiguration of the PNA ridge and 50/50 low.

[Weather Czar]

The 12z Euro ensembles are east of the OP, likewise with the 18z GFS. If there is going to be a massive northward and westward trend, enough to put the piedmont and coastal plain in danger of rain, it's going to need to start soon and require a massive reconfiguration of the PNA ridge and 50/50 low.

The euro 12z ensembels are farther west than the 0z ensembles tho.

[fig]

http://www.meteor.ia...en/bufkit/data/

Play around with this site...

Woooo! Based on that I've got a whole 1" of snow here in KILM... trend south and east!! Go GO Go!

[WidreMann]

The euro 12z ensembels are farther west than the 0z ensembles tho.

Sure. The normal back and forth, plus the usual N&W trend as we get closer. I just don't see what mechanism there is to make this storm phase early enough to be an inland runner.

[BIG FROSTY]

Is that 12z ?

[Weather Czar]

Sure. The normal back and forth, plus the usual N&W trend as we get closer. I just don't see what mechanism there is to make this storm phase early enough to be an inland runner.

I would not worry about it coming too far inland. Im sure your in a good spot.

[Weather Czar]

Is that 12z ?

New 18z run. You like?

[Wow]

Sure. The normal back and forth, plus the usual N&W trend as we get closer. I just don't see what mechanism there is to make this storm phase early enough to be an inland runner.

stronger s/w

[BIG FROSTY]

New 18z run. You like?

yes, I think ? Does it just go out to 48 ? I'm leaving to go to church kids in a Christmas play ! Hope we have a westward shift tonight, or you and I may be watching a snowstorm off to the east.

[phil882]

Alright I just found out that the sever where i normally have my thoughts on is down currently, so I'll just updating my Thinking here.

Honestly, not too much has changed from last night. The area of heavy snow has expanded now that the gfs has finally come on board with a coastal low rapidly deepening as it leaves the southeastern coastline. Still, its not nearly as amplified as the euro, but it continues to trend in this direction. The euro continues to look like a historical storm for eastern NC, which amounts perhaps exceeding a foot in spots. The phase the euro depicted was slightly further to the west than the 00z run, which could indicate the beginning of a trend in the opposite direction we have seen in the past 72 hours. However, despite the extreme amplification, its unlikely we will see this trend so far back that we see a 1993 or 1996 type track. The reason being is that the pacific ridge, which is amplifying to allow this phase to take place, simply is too far to the east to allow a further west solution that prevents most of the E NC/SC areas to get rain. Several pro mets have already compared this setup to 1996 and 1993, and while the degree of phasing is similar to allow a rapidly bombing low pressure, the pacific ridge located over western Canada keeps the energy from digging down too far west.

As for which model I support, while the gfs has made great strides towards the Euro solution, I feel that it is not done with the amplification of the system. Right now is shows a large area of eastern SC and NC above 0 degrees at 850mb for part of the event, despite a similar track of the 850mb low. The reason being is that despite being on the northwestern flank of the 850mb low, its not quite strong enough to draw in as much cold air like the Euro is depicting. If the gfs continues to trend more amplified with the 500mb features similar to the Euro, it should intensify the 850mb low feature and we will have better CAA transport into the piedmont areas of NC and SC. Thus my map has actually shifted the heaviest snowfall potential slightly southward and expanded it to account for the increased confidence in 4"+ snowfall amounts now that the gfs and euro are both generally on the same page. Tomorrow I'll issue my first call with snowfall amounts.

Finally look at how the 700mb streamlines are flowing on the Euro. If this setup verifies, areas that are on the northeastern flank of the circulation should have no problem getting effective moisture transport to allow for heavy precipitation amounts.

[Brian]

No offense, but cannot agree with that map--it is really not going to be a west to east oriented moisture shield.

[strongwxnc]

Good call as we stand now.

I see you expaned a little more wsw on you map.

Alright I just found out that the sever where i normally have my thoughts on is down currently, so I'll just updating my Thinking here.

Honestly, not too much has changed from last night. The area of heavy snow has expanded now that the gfs has finally come on board with a coastal low rapidly deepening as it leaves the southeastern coastline. Still, its not nearly as amplified as the euro, but it continues to trend in this direction. The euro continues to look like a historical storm for eastern NC, which amounts perhaps exceeding a foot in spots. The phase the euro depicted was slightly further to the west than the 00z run, which could indicate the beginning of a trend in the opposite direction we have seen in the past 72 hours. However, despite the extreme amplification, its unlikely we will see this trend so far back that we see a 1993 or 1996 type track. The reason being is that the pacific ridge, which is amplifying to allow this phase to take place, simply is too far to the east to allow a further west solution that prevents most of the E NC/SC areas to get rain. Several pro mets have already compared this setup to 1996 and 1993, and while the degree of phasing is similar to allow a rapidly bombing low pressure, the pacific ridge located over western Canada keeps the energy from digging down too far west.

As for which model I support, while the gfs has made great strides towards the Euro solution, I feel that it is not done with the amplification of the system. Right now is shows a large area of eastern SC and NC above 0 degrees at 850mb for part of the event, despite a similar track of the 850mb low. The reason being is that despite being on the northwestern flank of the 850mb low, its not quite strong enough to draw in as much cold air like the Euro is depicting. If the gfs continues to trend more amplified with the 500mb features similar to the Euro, it should intensify the 850mb low feature and we will have better CAA transport into the piedmont areas of NC and SC. Thus my map has actually shifted the heaviest snowfall potential slightly southward and expanded it to account for the increased confidence in 4"+ snowfall amounts now that the gfs and euro are both generally on the same page. Tomorrow I'll issue my first call with snowfall amounts.

Finally look at how the 700mb streamlines are flowing on the Euro. If this setup verifies, ares that are on the northeastern flank of the circulation should have no problem getting effective moisture transport to allow for heavy precipitation amounts.

[jrips27]

Alright I just found out that the sever where i normally have my thoughts on is down currently, so I'll just updating my Thinking here.

Honestly, not too much has changed from last night. The area of heavy snow has expanded now that the gfs has finally come on board with a coastal low rapidly deepening as it leaves the southeastern coastline. Still, its not nearly as amplified as the euro, but it continues to trend in this direction. The euro continues to look like a historical storm for eastern NC, which amounts perhaps exceeding a foot in spots. The phase the euro depicted was slightly further to the west than the 00z run, which could indicate the beginning of a trend in the opposite direction we have seen in the past 72 hours. However, despite the extreme amplification, its unlikely we will see this trend so far back that we see a 1993 or 1996 type track. The reason being is that the pacific ridge, which is amplifying to allow this phase to take place, simply is too far to the east to allow a further west solution that prevents most of the E NC/SC areas to get rain. Several pro mets have already compared this setup to 1996 and 1993, and while the degree of phasing is similar to allow a rapidly bombing low pressure, the pacific ridge located over western Canada keeps the energy from digging down too far west.

As for which model I support, while the gfs has made great strides towards the Euro solution, I feel that it is not done with the amplification of the system. Right now is shows a large area of eastern SC and NC above 0 degrees at 850mb for part of the event, despite a similar track of the 850mb low. The reason being is that despite being on the northwestern flank of the 850mb low, its not quite strong enough to draw in as much cold air like the Euro is depicting. If the gfs continues to trend more amplified with the 500mb features similar to the Euro, it should intensify the 850mb low feature and we will have better CAA transport into the piedmont areas of NC and SC. Thus my map has actually shifted the heaviest snowfall potential slightly southward and expanded it to account for the increased confidence in 4"+ snowfall amounts now that the gfs and euro are both generally on the same page. Tomorrow I'll issue my first call with snowfall amounts.

Finally look at how the 700mb streamlines are flowing on the Euro. If this setup verifies, ares that are on the northeastern flank of the circulation should have no problem getting effective moisture transport to allow for heavy precipitation amounts.

You just had to put me right on the Rain/Snow and All Snow line didn't you. But thanks for taking the time to re-update you map and give us your latest thinking!

[Brian]

WOW read this

My link

The king weather model, the European model, continues to remain adamant about an unusual perhaps once in a Hundred year event. For 3 full days now its insisted on an Historic Southeast Snowstorm of almost unmatched proportions. And it begins Christmas Day. All the other computer models have been catching up to this solution as well. Theres several key players that are all poised to come together to create this rare opportunity:

1) An historic blocking signature in Canada, which is perfectly placed to create a split in the flow

2) A strong storm system coming into southern California right now will take the southern track and

3) The southern storm will join forces with a strong northern system over the Gulf Coast region: This is extremely rare but has happened to some degree for example March 1993 "the Superstorm of the Century" which buried northern Georgia and the Appalachians

4) Unusually cold air aloft and extreme dynamics in the upper levels, which again is incredibly far south thanks to the forcing from the historic blocking going on over the continent.

In a nutshell, there is going to be a strong Southeast snowstorm, but at this time the exact track can't be pinned down for certain. However, we have enough information to believe that much of Georgia and the Carolinas will see an accumulating snowfall that will grow very intense and very far inland as the storm begins to deepen off the Georgia coast.

The snow should begin in the western Carolinas northern Georgia by around midday on Christmas Day. Overnight Christmas Night the storm will begin to "bomb" which is a term usually only associated with Nor'easters that affect New England. Sunday looks like a very snowy day in the Carolinas. The beaches or coastal plain may experience a change to sleet or mix briefly, depending on if the storm cuts just inland. At one point, this storm is poised to drop barometric pressure down to 975mb while located near the Outer Banks of North Carolina, which would be a true blizzard for the eastern half of the state I believe. The upper low cuts off over the southern Appalachians mountains which could stall the storm and pull it slightly more inland. This is a strong possibility with such a meridional flow in the atmosphere.

Make plans now in case this already dangerous looking storm gets any stronger than forecast. There could be downed trees, and power lines from the weight of the heavy snow and high winds in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Following the storm, very cold air will usher in and the snow will not melt very fast. The region could come to a virtual standstill. The storm looks like it will continue to crawl up the East Coast and some areas are going to get a record snowfall from this.

As far as snow amounts: its too far out to predict. In short, I'll say "a lot" is likely. I'll give more updates as needed on this developing situation.

Here is an animation depicting what the European Model is suggesting: I'd expect minor deviations but this is a rough idea beginning with Christmas Eve and ending the Day after Christmas.

[strongwxnc]

1st PROBABILITY FORECAST FROM DT

I Doubt he spent time looking at local WNC climo with this.

[strongwxnc]

Need to change that link to this link

Foothills link not fox21

WOW read this

[Tacoma]

yea I don't quite agree with this map i think more snow also west and southwest.

1st PROBABILITY FORECAST FROM DT

I Doubt he spent time looking at local WNC climo with this.

[superjames1992]

DT giving me a 40% chance at 16"+. I like. He does appear to be riding the Euro gravy train. I think Eastern NC will do better than his map depicts, however.

[Carvers Gap]

DT giving me a 40% chance at 16"+. I like. He does appear to be riding the Euro gravy train. I think Eastern NC will do better than his map depicts, however.

I think if this storm wraps up to the strength some are whispering about(not so quietly), the coast goes rain like a classic noreaster. NE TN mountains(not valley) and NC mountains should get slammed if this jogs a hair to the west. Anyway, the percentages should not be that low for the mountains.

[AirNelson39]

<br />yea I don't quite agree with this map i think more snow also west and southwest.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Yeah if he has that much of an area as rain that means he is going with a track closer to land which would put WNC in much higher probability than what it is. Not bad though

[Jon]

yea I don't quite agree with this map i think more snow also west and southwest.

Cool...I know you're new, but next time, when quoting, delete the image out of the quote before you reply to it, or simply refer to the image in your post...the last thing we need is several of DT's large probability maps all over the place.

[dsaur]

Posting from my phone so if this has been addressed please delete it.

The FFC is saying 1-3" from Columbus to Augusta with more for the mountains? Is this the strict GFS solution? To me the EURO looked like central GA and East GA were big winners not the mountains.

Or is this just the 3 day conservative post to give the tv mets the ok to put the run on Publix and Kroger?

It is standard climo speak. Usually down here we get nothing and up there they get the most because the cold stays in longer. You could have cut and pasted this out of the 60's or 70's. Not much adherence to the actual model, just letting the folks who care to self educate know that something might be coming. T

[phil882]

Good call as we stand now.

I see you expaned a little more wsw on you map.

You just had to put me right on the Rain/Snow and All Snow line didn't you. But thanks for taking the time to re-update you map and give us your latest thinking!

Thanks guys... I'm quite pleased that the gfs has finally come to its senses. However, its still much faster than the euro. Despite this it has a nice swath of +6" amounts across eastern NC. Thats why I feel pretty confident in the white area on my map verifying at this point.

[eyewall]

Thanks guys... I'm quite pleased that the gfs has finally come to its senses. However, its still much faster than the euro. Despite this it has a nice swath of +6" amounts across eastern NC. Thats why I feel pretty confident in the white area on my map verifying at this point.

6" would be enough to call the fail zone over here