strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM out to 36 and the S/W looks a touch weaker compared to the 06 run. Same location. Do not have access to the euro so I can not compare it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Weaker wave @ 42HR. 1036mb HP further south than the 00z run. Could be a colder, supressed run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 At 42 Hours the NAM looks to really be digging just coming into the panhandle of Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wouldn't that cause the storm to be more suppressed? no, would induce a phase earlier, imo.....meaning heavier snows further north and west, hopefully not at the expense of precip issues in eastern NC. Having said that, I have never seen a heavy snow here from a miller A, that wasn't rain on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Weaker wave @ 42HR. 1036mb HP further south than the 00z run. Could be a colder, supressed run. At 500mb looks a touch weaker but further north to me, but at 700mb it's closed at 303 versus 306 from the last run so maybe a little stronger. And 700mb rh is much better looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Looks a tad bit stretched out to me at 51 @ 500 level At 500mb looks a touch weaker but further north to me, but at 700mb it's closed at 303 versus 306 from the last run so maybe a little stronger. And 700mb rh is much better looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Lots of precip breaking out @ 54HR. Wave maybe a tad south of 00z. No sign of an LP yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 such a beautiful setup, will be a shame if it misses phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Looks a tad bit stretched out to me at 51 @ 500 level Does look a little stretched out no doubt.. But the 700mb low looks better which is odd. Not sure why the 500mb would look weaker but 700mb look stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 @60HR, 1036mb HP sliding down slightly faster than 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 @66HR, low developing just southwest of TX/LA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 looks like the NAM isn't phasing it fast enough. I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 @ 72HR, vort is just west of 00z benchmark. Looks like we might have a winner here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 @84HR, no phase. Looks colder and supressed. Very light snow along I-20 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Doesnt look like a winner to me..............but i am just an amature. STRIKE ONE, just a bit (or a lot) outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm not sure if the surface map of the NAM is entirely correct. 700 looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Not liking how the euro is the only model showing phasing while the rest seem to be trending suppressed and no phase.. Not encouraging at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 According to what the Euro had last night, the phase wouldn't occur until just 96hrs (from 00z) which is obviously just outside the 12z run of this model. I didn't see much difference between the 00z and 12z. It may have slowed down a little bit and everything looks to be set up for a phasing to occur..... @84HR, no phase. Looks colder and supressed. Very light snow along I-20 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 maybe i am not reading it right (or just have lower expectations) but it looks like the nam is bringing precip into n ga by sat. afternoon and over spreads the north half of the state. soundings are looking pretty close to snow...considering its that far out its not looking too bad. granted the amounts arent great, but 1" is expanding in parts of ga and the western carolinas by sat. evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Any mets want to chime in and give analysis on the NAM. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 How do you get your hours so much faster than what the NOAA models show at the same time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Very good point Sir. I was unaware of the time frame on the Euro... + 84hr Nam............. According to what the Euro had last night, the phase wouldn't occur until just 96hrs (from 00z) which is obviously just outside the 12z run of this model. I didn't see much difference between the 00z and 12z. It may have slowed down a little bit and everything looks to be set up for a phasing to occur..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 According to what the Euro had last night, the phase wouldn't occur until just 96hrs (from 00z) which is obviously just outside the 12z run of this model. I didn't see much difference between the 00z and 12z. It may have slowed down a little bit and everything looks to be set up for a phasing to occur..... Thanks, it sounds pretty good then actually according to your statement. I appreciate your analysis. I know a lot of you guys posting mean well but are just weenies like myself and really don't know what your looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The NAM is further east than the 6z GFS or the 00z ECMWF aloft, thus I would imagine any phase would occur to late to benefit us. However as I mentioned yesterday the NAM uses the previous GFS run for boundary conditions with so many key features still on boundaries and in data void areas, I doubt the NAM will lead any charges untill we are at least withing 60-72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The disconcerting part is the position of the SLP. maybe i am not reading it right (or just have lower expectations) but it looks like the nam is bringing precip into n ga by sat. afternoon and over spreads the north half of the state. soundings are looking pretty close to snow...considering its that far out its not looking too bad. granted the amounts arent great, but 1" is expanding in parts of ga and the western carolinas by sat. evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The Euro has been amazingly consistent compared to every other global models. I have a hard time believing the storm will be that intense, but unless it sings a different tune the next day or so, you have to trust it more due to its run to run consistency. No doubt, I think the nervous factor is at a all time high for a lot of us but I sort of think its fun...... Not liking how the euro is the only model showing phasing while the rest seem to be trending suppressed and no phase.. Not encouraging at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The Euro has been amazingly consistent compared to every other global models. I have a hard time believing the storm will be that intense, but unless it sings a different tune the next day or so, you have to trust it more due to its run to run consistency. No doubt, I think the nervous factor is at a all time high for a lot of us but I sort of think its fun...... The euro made it's name doing this with January 96. To this day, that is why it remains a revered model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Hopefully we are just in that time frame when the models lose the storm. This always seems to happen in the 3-4 day range. Everyone starts jumping off the cliff. Then about 48-72 hours beforehand, the models start trending stronger and further NW. It may not be the monster the Euro was showing, but I just have trouble believing that a STJ s/w this strong, with PNA ridging and some northern stream support would slide out to sea as a 1014mb "low". I just don't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 According to what the Euro had last night, the phase wouldn't occur until just 96hrs (from 00z) which is obviously just outside the 12z run of this model. I didn't see much difference between the 00z and 12z. It may have slowed down a little bit and everything looks to be set up for a phasing to occur..... Nam right now is too far south with the surface low imho for a lot of us. It's a good 100 to 200 miles to the south of the euro. Of course this is the 84 hour nam and it should be taken with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm beginning to get the feeling we are looking at another December 1989 like storm that sees a major snowstorm go to our south and east. That storm gave places like Charleston and Wilmington a white Christmas, while not dropping as much as a flake anywhere over the foothills or piedmont. Believe I had rather this miss to the north than seeing that happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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