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Christmas Storm IV

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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DopplerWx

DopplerWx

Posted
Posted

18z GFS track still a tad too North to give Central SC much of an event other than maybe a couple inches on the other end. Need it to bomb sooner or track slightly more South!

Yea we need it to go about 50-100 miles south. Hopefully the 00z run will bring it south after it gets some good data in it after the s/w is onshore.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
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With respect to the 850 temps...keep in mind that this is the 18z run of the GFS....lets just wait to the 00z run....plus...we know the EURO is king right now...I hope

One of the mets (can't remember who) last night says the 18z runs are every bit as reliable as the 12z runs according to verification data (due to how many airplanes are in the air at this hour). He stated that 0z is the best with 12z and 18z holding similar verification scores and 6z being the least verified.

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Itunis

Itunis

Posted
Posted

With respect to the 850 temps...keep in mind that this is the 18z run of the GFS....lets just wait to the 00z run....plus...we know the EURO is king right now...I hope

RaleighWx posted yesterday that there is very little difference in accuracy between "off hour" and 12Z/0Z runs. So I would consider it just as valid as any other run (of course mets please find a way to rationalize why it's too warm).

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

That is what Foothills has been speaking about...

[/b]

It really isn't orographic enhancement but is enhancement caused by the inverted lee trough that usually develops with a low on the Georgia Coast. All the storms I've looked at that brought snow here, had that feature, including last seasons Feb snowfall, which was very tiny light flakes, but yet the enhancement stayed put. Once the winds went nw, the whole state evaporated of moisture, that takes a long time and this areas usually is about the last place to "snow out", next to the coast closer to the storm. Its always fun to watch the snow linger and linger a while even when the main low has passes to our northeast then suddenly it goes "poof".

Anyway the GFS is heading toward the Euro. It has all the main ingredients but what it does at 66 hours is start to erode the southern shortwave too quickly, then it kind of re-establishes it. Its trying to resolve how to handle it. I'm loving the looks of the northern stream.

One concern I think is legit is the potential for the storm to cut inland. Yes I know no model is showing it, but I'm leaving the door open to that simply because the extreme meriodonal (north to south) flow and deep anomalous trough that is incoming. We're in totally unchartered waters here I think, close to a 96 or 93, but different because of more blocking and stronger due north flow. Usually our big events have the trough coming in from the northwest this is almost due north when the sudden phase occurs, Therefore I won't be suprised to see the Euro step up its surface pressures a lot in the Northeast Gulf and southeast Coast. If the 5H cuts off from the mtns of NC or slightly west, its cause to pull the surface system more westbound than shown.

We'll see.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Interesting to see the polar jet wave coming in further west. That would induce a phase further west. Gonna be interesting to watch and see if that is a trend. The euro did this as well from 00z to 12z.

I was thinking the same thing...albeit w/ an amateur eye. I'm thinking maybe 100-200 miles further west w/ the phase. The 18z run actually makes more sense to me than the Euro. However, since it is just getting on board, it may not have the strength of this thing just right.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

It really isn't orographic enhancement but is enhancement caused by the inverted lee trough that usually develops with a low on the Georgia Coast. All the storms I've looked at that brought snow here, had that feature, including last seasons Feb snowfall, which was very tiny light flakes, but yet the enhancement stayed put. Once the winds went nw, the whole state evaporated of moisture, that takes a long time and this areas usually is about the last place to "snow out", next to the coast closer to the storm. Its always fun to watch the snow linger and linger a while even when the main low has passes to our northeast then suddenly it goes "poof".

Anyway the GFS is heading toward the Euro. It has all the main ingredients but what it does at 66 hours is start to erode the southern shortwave too quickly, then it kind of re-establishes it. Its trying to resolve how to handle it. I'm loving the looks of the northern stream.

One concern I think is legit is the potential for the storm to cut inland. Yes I know no model is showing it, but I'm leaving the door open to that simply because the extreme meriodonal (north to south) flow and deep anomalous trough that is incoming. We're in totally unchartered waters here I think, close to a 96 or 93, but different because of more blocking and stronger due north flow. Usually our big events have the trough coming in from the northwest this is almost due north when the sudden phase occurs, Therefore I won't be suprised to see the Euro step up its surface pressures a lot in the Northeast Gulf and southeast Coast. If the 5H cuts off from the mtns of NC or slightly west, its cause to pull the surface system more westbound than shown.

We'll see.

Interesting. I wouldn't mind a westward shift here (though not too much), but it would be bad for our friends out east. Of course, from what I've seen, if we get a massive storm, there's the possibility of significant accumulations on the wraparound snow even close to the coast, so even the areas that could be too warm would get good snows on the back end.

But it's all hypothetical at this point.

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

What are your thoughts for this storm as far as the possibility of it running inland or very close to the coast and giving mixing issues for the I-95 corridor area and those along the coast? Not much discussion has been mentioned for those east of Raleigh so was just wondering what you feel as far as this going inland or not?

If it comes inland from the coastline, i don't see it being more than 40 or 50 miles. But for that to happen, this system would have to ramp to the ECMWF levels, but also phase a bit further west, geographically. Right now, it's impossible to say how likely that is. I'm gonna make a big post on all of this later at my examiner page.

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farleydawg79

farleydawg79

Posted
Posted

One of the mets (can't remember who) last night says the 18z runs are every bit as reliable as the 12z runs according to verification data (due to how many airplanes are in the air at this hour). He stated that 0z is the best with 12z and 18z holding similar verification scores and 6z being the least verified.

I agree...but the 00z tends to be the most reliable.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Im a nervous wreck right now with the possibility of an inland track and with temps problems, also we may get dry slotted here in the central and eastern carolinas if it treks further west and inland.

I think the Euro will keep something along the same solution as last on the next run. I base that off it's ensemble members from 12z, although things can definitely change. What is a little worrying though is over past events, we are getting out of the Euro's amazing accuracy time-frame and getting closer to the NAM/GFS's better forecasting abilities.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

unless at 00z the models go back to a late phase and a further OTS solution, then ill be sure to send you pics.

The last Euro was the best solution for everyone involved. I know people from the Western/TN areas are worried, but the precipitation would surely be more expansive than depicted. I think areas of TN were even in the .25 range all being snow with okay ratios. I don't wish an OTS solution on anyone involved all the way to the NE coast.

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DixieBlizzard

DixieBlizzard

Posted
Posted

Im a nervous wreck right now with the possibility of an inland track and with temps problems, also we may get dry slotted here in the central and eastern carolinas if it treks further west and inland.

My apologies, Southern Snow. It would help if I cleared my cache every once in awhile so I wouldn't see an old map but I also didn't latch on to your location either. I can see where you may be a little concerned......itunis, not so much. Trust the Godfather of models (the EURO). I think 850's will be just fine here and nothing that wetbulbing will not overcome quickly!

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Lee

Lee

Posted
Posted

The last Euro was the best solution for everyone involved. I know people from the Western/TN areas are worried, but the precipitation would surely be more expansive than depicted. I think areas of TN were even in the .25 range all being snow with okay ratios. I don't wish an OTS solution on anyone involved all the way to the NE coast.

Yeah, don't know what the Euro qpf output for this area is but, GFS has wettened up somewhat and now gives a storm total of .25-.50 liquid. All snow with good ratios. So, IF this came to fruition would be a 4-10 inch total(upslope involved).

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