DCMetroWinston Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Jeremy: I wish that was the case bro but here is what they published at 300pm: THE EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY KEEPING THE STORM CLOSE TO THE COAST, PREDICTING SIGNIFICANT AND HAZARDOUS SNOWFALL FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, THIS IS AN OUTLIER OF ALL POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS not sure if it is so much of an outlier with other solutions stepping toward the Euro, and the Euro being the most consistent over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Nice little two contour 850 low showing up at 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Heres the link to my blogsite if any one is interested http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com LOVE the blog Robert. The animation is awesome. I hope you do not mind, but I posted that link on my FB page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yup! The center of the low will hit the coast in about an hour. http://www.daculawea...rnia_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buncombe Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Jeremy: I wish that was the case bro but here is what they published at 300pm: THE EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY KEEPING THE STORM CLOSE TO THE COAST, PREDICTING SIGNIFICANT AND HAZARDOUS SNOWFALL FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, THIS IS AN OUTLIER OF ALL POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS However, most anyone would buy the 5 day graphic giving a solid 6" snow to most areas west of US 1 They may be right about the Euro being an outlier. The next sentence after the line that you quoted is important because after saying the Euro is an outlier, they also say that the believe the Euro is right on two things: its larger amplification and its track closer to the coast: HOWEVER, BASED UPON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE, A LARGER AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME, AS WELL AS A CLOSER TRACK TO THE COAST. So, I think they are saying that although it is an outlier, it make sense and they support parts of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
generelz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Now that the low is coming ashore into a more data-rich area over the CONUS it will be interesting to see if there are any model changes with the 0z and 6z suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If I get hit with this event there will be no more fail zone talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 At 51hrs the GFS has a closed low at 500mb in north central TX. This is the furthest east it has shown this type of feature so far. Someone correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Now that the low is coming ashore into a more data-rich area over the CONUS it will be interesting to see if there are any model changes with the 0z and 6z suites. Looks great at 42 hours...full phase...very healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 At 48, stronger, but faster ... but north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Looks stronger at hr48 and possibly an earlier phase to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Closed low at hr54. Wasn't there last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 At 48, stronger, but faster ... but north. I'm glad you said that. Those are exactly my thoughts as well. North by roughly 150 miles and stronger.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Now I'm getting worried about this going inland like '93. Any reason why I should *not* be worried about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This run of the gfs will prob have the best sampling of any of the models despite the "off" run rumor of the 18z. Also off topic question, places are already spreading brine. How long is this stuff affective on the roads?? I feel like 3 days of driving on it makes it pointless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 More phasing going on at hr72 of this run. Quicker run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 At 72hr popping a surface low just south of the FL panhandle. Precip breaking out in central AL northeast through northern GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah, I'd sure like to see my friends in Columbia get hammered again. Two years running would blow some minds. T I would like to see my GA/NC peeps get hammered too I love it when Lookout and Robert start talking hawt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Now I'm getting worried about this going inland like '93. Any reason why I should *not* be worried about this? I answered my own question. I looked at reanalysis data for March '93 and there was considerably ridging in the west Atlantic, the PNA ridge was much further west and there was no 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS 850s look warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Now I'm getting worried about this going inland like '93. Any reason why I should *not* be worried about this? We have room to play with. Of course, I have more room than you in Raleigh, but we both can afford somewhat of a northwesterly trend if that does come to be. I'm not sure if we'll see a NW trend or not, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wettest GFS run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Matthew East: Here is the trick though....there could very well be a sharp western cutoff to the heavy snow. I can fully envision a scenario where Columbia and Raleigh get significantly more snow than GSP, Charlotte, and Greensboro. But, if this really turns into a monster storm, there would likely be some significant orographic enhancement in the western Carolinas (orographic and due to lee side trough development). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Looks fine to the west. But yes a little bit your way GFS 850s look warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah, no! Yea it does, freezing line is all the way into central SC as the low if offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That is what Foothills has been speaking about... Matthew East: Here is the trick though....there could very well be a sharp western cutoff to the heavy snow. I can fully envision a scenario where Columbia and Raleigh get significantly more snow than GSP, Charlotte, and Greensboro. But, if this really turns into a monster storm, there would likely be some significant orographic enhancement in the western Carolinas (orographic and due to lee side trough development). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Any mets want to chime on on why this run was so warm? I thought we didnt have anything to worry about temp wise? At least in central and eatstern carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z GFS track still a tad too North to give Central SC much of an event other than maybe a couple inches on the other end. Need it to bomb sooner or track slightly more South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 What's up with the 850's? Aren't these the warmest out of any of the models so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 850 line up by Gainesville on this run at 72hr. Not good verbatim for the ATL area, but who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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