snowlover91 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Basically, the 18z NAM came in further south, looks to phase nicely but will be further east than the Euro if you extrapolate it out. Not the best set up for those in western nc but with the inverted trough the nam shows should be more qpf than what is depicted, and further east should be a nice snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I can't speak for 1996 since I lived in St. Louis at the time but with 1993 and the amount of snow we had in the NE 'burbs of Birmingham, the 18" we received lasted almost a week with the higher Sun angles of March. I can't imagine how long a big snow like that would last just several days after the Winter solstice. We had 1" linger last year for over week in early January. I am also pulling for that deformation zone to give this part of GA a big ol' sloppy slap in the face, you know, in a good way!!! Thanks for the great discussion guys. It will be interesting to see when we can hone in on the QPF amounts and then the ratios. I think we could be looking better than 10:1 for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Didnt allan say earlier that the later hours of the NAM is influenced by the GFS? Yes, I believe both the 6z and 18z runs of the NAM goes off some of the GFS data which is why they are "off" runs. Only the 12z and 0z have fresh RAOB data which is why they are taken more seriously I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Crayon map is for heavy snow S.Carolina up the seaboard They went with a heavy weighting for Central and Eastern sections towards the coast and left the Foothills and High Country out of the risk area. Still time to change though but my hunch this thing is going to be US1 corridor and east event. US HAZARDS ASSESSMENT NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST DECEMBER 22 2010 SYNOPSIS: A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST COULD BRING BOTH SNOW AND RAIN TO A LARGE AREA. THIS STORM COULD PROVE TO BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT AS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD FALL DURING AND JUST AFTER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SPECIFICS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A STRONG FLOW OUT OF THE PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE PACIFIC COAST WET, WHILE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY COULD MODERATE BY THE END OF THIS ASSESSMENT PERIOD. HAZARDS HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, DECEMBER 25. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHEAST, DECEMBER 27-29. HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND, DECEMBER 26-27. SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TEXAS, COLORADO, KANSAS, AND HAWAII. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR SATURDAY DECEMBER 25 - MONDAY DECEMBER 27: THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE EAST. IT IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COAST, ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY OFF THE EAST COAST AND MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOLUTION WHICH HAS THE STORM HUGGING THE COAST MORE THAN IN SOME OF THE MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. DESPITE THIS, THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE STORM WILL TRACK, AND HENCE, HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL OVER COASTAL AREAS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRACKED FARTHER SOUTH AND ARE SLOWER WITH THE SHORTWAVE, MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER, BOTH SETS OF MODELS KEEP THE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST THAT ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD OCCUR OVER LAND. THE EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY KEEPING THE STORM CLOSE TO THE COAST, PREDICTING SIGNIFICANT AND HAZARDOUS SNOWFALL FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, THIS IS AN OUTLIER OF ALL POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, BASED UPON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE, A LARGER AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME, AS WELL AS A CLOSER TRACK TO THE COAST. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL RUNS, THE QPF IS NOT AS LARGE AS WHAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN PREDICTING, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAVY SNOW HAZARD FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE BOSTON AREA, WITH THE MOST SNOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THIS IS A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST, AND PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD KEEP UPDATED WITH THE MOST CURRENT INFORMATION COMING OUT OF LOCAL NWS OFFICES. IN THE WEST, STRONG FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE ARE ANTICIPATED IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST, BUT AS SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR TUESDAY DECEMBER 28 - SATURDAY JANUARY 01: THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON VERY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST COAST STORM. MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF GREATER THAN -12 DEGREES F ARE POSSIBLE, BRINGING THE CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL FLORIDA. IN ADDITION, THIS COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW. THE DURATION OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS RELATIVELY SHORT, THUS NO HAZARDS ARE INDICATED ON THE MAP. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED TOTALS IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELTS COULD APPROACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHWEST, ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME, THE AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA. FOR SUNDAY JANUARY 02 - WEDNESDAY JANUARY 05: THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION, WHICH HAS BEEN STRONGLY NEGATIVE OVER THE LAST MONTH, HAS BROUGHT TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PREDICTING THAT OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS, THE AO WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL. THIS LIKELY WOULD BRING A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST, TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE SEVERE DROUGHT REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGHOUT THIS ASSESSMENT PERIOD, AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE MAIN AXIS OF DROUGHT. FORECASTER: KENNETH PELMAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I can't speak for 1996 since I lived in St. Louis at the time but with 1993 and the amount of snow we had in the NE 'burbs of Birmingham, the 18" we received lasted almost a week with the higher Sun angles of March. I can't imagine how long a big snow like that would last just several days after the Winter solstice. We had 1" linger last year for over week in early January. I am also pulling for that deformation zone to give this part of GA a big ol' sloppy slap in the face, you know, in a good way!!! Thanks for the great discussion guys. It will be interesting to see when we can hone in on the QPF amounts and then the ratios. I think we could be looking better than 10:1 for once! If only...it's looking right now that central GA might make out better than us north of 20. If we get 5" and Augusta gets a foot I'll be slightly disappointed but still ecstatic. We certainly look to make up for some of the lack of QPF with decent ratios, like you're saying. The NAM still isn't on board completely with the Euro, but still shows a light accumulating snow for us. Same with the GFS. I think it's fairly safe to say we'll see snow on Christmas Day (or later on at night), the question now is do we get a dusting/flurries or 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I can't speak for 1996 since I lived in St. Louis at the time but with 1993 and the amount of snow we had in the NE 'burbs of Birmingham, the 18" we received lasted almost a week with the higher Sun angles of March. I can't imagine how long a big snow like that would last just several days after the Winter solstice. We had 1" linger last year for over week in early January. I am also pulling for that deformation zone to give this part of GA a big ol' sloppy slap in the face, you know, in a good way!!! Thanks for the great discussion guys. It will be interesting to see when we can hone in on the QPF amounts and then the ratios. I think we could be looking better than 10:1 for once! We only got a few inches in 1996 but it stuck around for awhile and flurried for a good 48 hours. 1993 was so hard to measure due to the wind. We measured around 14" at our house in Acworth. My uncle down the street measured 18". He actually got out in it the 1st day so his might be accurate. A buddy of mine that lives in western Bartow said the snow was kneedeep on him out in his field and he is 6' tall. All of that said it would be Karma for areas east of me to get slammed by this while I get only a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Keep in mind beyond 48 hrs the NAM loses reliability....especially the key micro features that it's pretty good at through 48 hrs. The key here is that the NAM is still (even though outside the window) picking up on the important features for this to pan out nicely. The Euro is really starting to look possible given the other models coming into agreement on the "southern" solution. What will be all the difference in the world is surface low placement, upper level (500 mb, 850 mb) low tracks, and when then northern stream energy phases the closed low in the gulf. If it happens earlier than what the Euro depicts, which is entirely possible given the slower movement of the low depicted in the latest run of the NAM, then the potential for a big chug of moisture out ahead of the low would really enhance snowfall for 1-65 / 1-75 / 1-85 corridors... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Something I have noticed on the NAM and GFS is convective feedback issues with thunderstorms in the Gulf, I think that could possibly be cutting back QPF amounts on the northern end of the system. With a track like that and pressure that low, there should be more precip IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 going with the middle ground...but they have started to mention amounts (2-3" for N. GA w/ isolated higher amounts).... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 404 PM EST WED DEC 22 2010 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY 12Z-18Z FRI. THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS A COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA RIGHT NOW AND IT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 06Z-12Z THU. A BIT OF COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THIS FRONT TONIGHT WITH WEAK CAA SETTING UP. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS NORTH GA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COLDER THAN SEASONAL NORMS THU WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS FRIDAY. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT ONLY BY 6-12 HOURS. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF SO HAVE DONE A BIT OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. CURRENTLY MAIN LOW CENTER IS JUST OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN LOW CENTER REDEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY 06Z-12Z SAT THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS FL AND EVENTUALLY MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF SAT IT DEVELOPS A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...DOWN THROUGH N GA AND OVER TO LOUISIANA. THIS PLUME MOVES SOUTH THOUGH GA SAT/SAT NIGHT BRINGING RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN TO THE AREA. N GA CAN EXPECT SNOW WITH SOUTH GA GETTING MOSTLY RAIN AND A MIXTURE IN BETWEEN. THIS EVENT IS STILL THREE DAYS AWAY SO WE DONT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION JUST YET BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE NORTH GEORGIA WILL SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH GA MOUNTAINS...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL GA (NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE). AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA IT MOVES RAPIDLY UP THE EAST COAST AND DOES NOT ALLOW MUCH BACKSIDE MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. WILL STILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS N GA FOR SUN MORNING WITH JUST FLURRIES EXPECTED. AFTER SUN...ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH DAY 7. TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT MON WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY WED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Heres the link to my blogsite if any one is interested http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If only...it's looking right now that central GA might make out better than us north of 20. If we get 5" and Augusta gets a foot I'll be slightly disappointed but still ecstatic. We certainly look to make up for some of the lack of QPF with decent ratios, like you're saying. The NAM still isn't on board completely with the Euro, but still shows a light accumulating snow for us. Same with the GFS. I think it's fairly safe to say we'll see snow on Christmas Day (or later on at night), the question now is do we get a dusting/flurries or 6". I keep telling you guys Spalding Co. is in the sweet spot lots of times. Still plenty of time for things to go terribly wrong, but after the gfs started to try to play along, and the rock solid consistancy of the Euro, I began to believe. I even think Chris with his big weather black hole, will do just fine even if it isn't a monster. He did lots better last year than I did. For once the cold air is here and not running to get in on the action. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Heres the link to my blogsite if any one is interested http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com awesome model you got there at the end, well done post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 FFC is being pretty bold throwing out numbers already. I like it! 2-3 for N GA seems reasonable if you lend more weight to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Heres the link to my blogsite if any one is interested http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com Very nice write up. Love the maps! Thanks for sharing....this helps me see all the players and it makes since to me now. I see how this is gonna rip our coast apart. If this is gonna happen the way you depict I think I need to prepare now just in case. Snow is fun, but no power and cold temps are no fun. Thanks again and keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Heres the link to my blogsite if any one is interested http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com Nicely done, Robert. I still think we need an all southern met radio show, so you can get a chance to talk. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If only...it's looking right now that central GA might make out better than us north of 20. If we get 5" and Augusta gets a foot I'll be slightly disappointed but still ecstatic. We certainly look to make up for some of the lack of QPF with decent ratios, like you're saying. The NAM still isn't on board completely with the Euro, but still shows a light accumulating snow for us. Same with the GFS. I think it's fairly safe to say we'll see snow on Christmas Day (or later on at night), the question now is do we get a dusting/flurries or 6". This run of the nam is probably the closest yet to the euro yet ..so I think it's safe to say it's trended strongly in the euro's direction. As for us, this looks like a situation, as you said, the further east and south you go..might end up being better. It's very possible that macon to augusta to columbia could be the big winners (not counting eastern north carolina of course). However, and this is using the euro, higher rain to snow ratios than usual could make up for the lesser amounts over northwest Georgia as 850mb temps plummet to -8c as far as below atlanta. (I'm extrapolating these temps based on the maps I see, they have 4c intervals) Even before that though 850mb temps are pretty cold. At H90, -4c 850mb temps go from atlanta to north of athens. -8c is up in tn with 850mb temps of around -6c likely in northwest Ga. Between H90 and H96, the -4c 850mb temps have dropped to near macon/augusta with -6c to -7c temps across a good portion of north Ga. At least 0.25 falls by hour 96..as these temps drop. By hour 102, -8c 850mb temps have dropped to atlanta to athens. Between 96 hours and 102, another 0.10 falls for atlanta/gainesville and around 0.25 for athens. We finally dry out after this. So it's reasonable to assume, based on the euro, we are going to have some snow falling with 850mb temps somewhere between -6c to -8c for a little while. That would really help make up for some of the lesser liquid totals. I know compared to the 10 to 25 inches it's painting over the eastern carolinas, it seems like it's not a lot but standing alone, that's a pretty damn good snow. But I admit, I have never seen 10 inches or more of snow. I came close last year but no cigar. I really would love for this low to track just a little bit further NW and squarely put that deformation axis over us for a while. It's so close to doing that on the euro...so keep all of your digits crossed. Of course at this stage I feel like it's not wise to even be talking about amounts, much less ones that high because it could end up being just a small to moderate one very easily. But it's hard not to imagine the possibilities looking at the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Heres the link to my blogsite if any one is interested http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com nice write up Robert......Great job on the animation. BTW I love the fact that this is probably going to be a historic storm. But for me I hope the 12" plus stuff stays out of the upstate. A good 6 to 10 inch storm would be just fine by me..... I really don't want to deal with the downed trees and power outages over Christmas. Keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Heres the link to my blogsite if any one is interested http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com Great read as always Robert ! Hope it holds true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 RNK, Thinking heaviest snow stays east of me, But they do give me a chance. .FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. .CHRISTMAS DAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 ABOVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This run of the nam is probably the closest yet to the euro yet ..so I think it's safe to say it's trended strongly in the euro's direction. As for us, this looks like a situation, as you said, the further east and south you go..might end up being better. It's very possible that macon to augusta to columbia could be the big winners (not counting eastern north carolina of course). However, and this is using the euro, higher rain to snow ratios than usual could make up for the lesser amounts over northwest Georgia as 850mb temps plummet to -8c as far as below atlanta. (I'm extrapolating these temps based on the maps I see, they have 4c intervals) Even before that though 850mb temps are pretty cold. At H90, -4c 850mb temps go from atlanta to north of athens. -8c is up in tn with 850mb temps of around -6c likely in northwest Ga. Between H90 and H96, the -4c 850mb temps have dropped to near macon/augusta with -6c to -7c temps across a good portion of north Ga. At least 0.25 falls by hour 96..as these temps drop. By hour 102, -8c 850mb temps have dropped to atlanta to athens. Between 96 hours and 102, another 0.10 falls for atlanta/gainesville and around 0.25 for athens. We finally dry out after this. So it's reasonable to assume, based on the euro, we are going to have some snow falling with 850mb temps somewhere between -6c to -8c for a little while. That would really help make up for some of the lesser liquid totals. I know compared to the 10 to 25 inches it's painting over the eastern carolinas, it seems like it's not a lot but standing alone, that's a pretty damn good snow. But I admit, I have never seen 10 inches or more of snow. I came close last year but no cigar. I really would love for this low to track just a little bit further NW and squarely put that deformation axis over us for a while. It's so close to doing that on the euro...so keep all of your digits crossed. Of course at this stage I feel like it's not wise to even be talking about amounts, much less ones that high because it could end up being just a small to moderate one very easily. But it's hard not to imagine the possibilities looking at the euro If you get a major snow for the 3rd year in a row I demand you stop calling your area the "screw zone" But ratios should be at least decent for N GA, especially NW GA. I'm optimistic at this point about seeing something-be it a dusting or a historic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Hell ya.. We talked at length about that a long time ago...Maybe WW days. I was doing a research paper on a Church near that area. That is why it sticks out in the head. That and the church handles snakes lol..you remember what it is? For those who don't know, it's when an eddie forms down wind of the mountains over northeast ga/upper savannah river valley when the flow is out of the north or NNE. It delays, sometimes a lot, any cold air advection. The worst case of this was a few years ago when around 20 miles of my location was rain while everywhere else was snow. It normally is a factor in cooling the low levels but It actually prevented cooling all the way to 850mb. There was a small bubble of above freezing 850mb temps here surrounding by subfreezing temps. You talk about maddening. If this is a weaker system, there is a chance this becomes somewhat of an issue but with 850mb temps as cold as predicted, I doubt it. Talked about that yesterday and unless a met can comment.... I think we were told not to look to much into that now. As needed RaleighWX has some graphics he showed last year that show what to look for. Something I have noticed on the NAM and GFS is convective feedback issues with thunderstorms in the Gulf, I think that could possibly be cutting back QPF amounts on the northern end of the system. With a track like that and pressure that low, there should be more precip IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 FFC, is the most conservative...wait..worst NWS station there. I know there will not be many tv mets that want to go on air with snow in there forecast tonight, but hell lets face it.....MOST if not all the models are showing a shot at snow...PERIOD!!! My map will be coming out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evil Elvis Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I keep telling you guys Spalding Co. is in the sweet spot lots of times. Still plenty of time for things to go terribly wrong, but after the gfs started to try to play along, and the rock solid consistancy of the Euro, I began to believe. I even think Chris with his big weather black hole, will do just fine even if it isn't a monster. He did lots better last year than I did. For once the cold air is here and not running to get in on the action. T It's got a Feb 1973 feel: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/Feb1973.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The center of the low will hit the coast in about an hour. http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_california_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Heres the link to my blogsite if any one is interested http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com Nice writeup Robert and I like the animation in more ways than one. That would be perfect. Your attention and time devoted and shared with the board on this event is sincerely appreciated. I am concerned on NCEP and RDU weighting heavily towards the GFS though that at this juncture would mean just primarily an upslope significant snow in the High Country with the foothills and western/central piedmont getting left out of a heavy snow event. For once, we are due a storm as in years past that gets much of the state, however, I am afraid the minds at NWS are on to something that will leave the western areas out. It all comes down to a lack of trust that some of the offices are showing in the ECMWF extreme solution. Time will tell. At 300pm NCEP summarized this in their threats assessment: THE EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY KEEPING THE STORM CLOSE TO THE COAST, PREDICTING SIGNIFICANT AND HAZARDOUS SNOWFALL FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, THIS IS AN OUTLIER OF ALL POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 LOL at 18z GFS -- even at just 6 hours vs. 12z at 12 hours it moves the shortwave into a different country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 LOL at 18z GFS -- even at just 6 hours vs. 12z at 12 hours it moves the shortwave into a different country. Same location at hr18 though compared to hr24 of last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Nice writeup Robert and I like the animation in more ways than one. That would be perfect. I am concerned on NCEP and RDU weighting heavily towards the GFS though that at this juncture would mean just primarily an upslope significant snow in the High Country with the foothills and western/central piedmont getting left out of a heavy snow event. For once, we are due a storm as in years past that gets much of the state, however, I am afraid the minds at NWS are on to something that will leave the western areas out. I dont think anyone at NCEP is going with the GFS that I know of. In fact, HPC heavily favors the Euro and has for the past 24 hours. The WFO that covers this area is also weighing their forecast heavily on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If you get a major snow for the 3rd year in a row I demand you stop calling your area the "screw zone" But ratios should be at least decent for N GA, especially NW GA. I'm optimistic at this point about seeing something-be it a dusting or a historic storm. lol, yeah if I do it will be an amazing achievement because think about how long I went without a significant snow? It took 15 years or so to get above 4 inches. So if I get three 4 plus inches in a year, that will be amazing. I'm sure I will pay for it though and this area goes another decade or two without seeing one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I dont think anyone at NCEP is going with the GFS that I know of. In fact, HPC heavily favors the Euro and has for the past 24 hours. The WFO that covers this area is also weighing their forecast heavily on the euro. Jeremy: I wish that was the case bro but here is what they published at 300pm: THE EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY KEEPING THE STORM CLOSE TO THE COAST, PREDICTING SIGNIFICANT AND HAZARDOUS SNOWFALL FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, THIS IS AN OUTLIER OF ALL POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS However, most anyone would buy the 5 day graphic giving a solid 6" snow to most areas west of US 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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