beanskip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM closes it off at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I was talking to one of the guys at NWS FFC about how conservative they are, he agreed. I believe the next 24 hours will put us in the time frame for a watch of some type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 ILM.... .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...ITCHING TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND BUT WILL BE PATIENT AND WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE UPCOMING WEEKEND STORM OFF THE COAST. MODELS ARE STARTING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE SITUATION BUT STILL TOO EARLY AS SYSTEM THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORM IS COMING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WILL FEEL BETTER WITH ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS TO INCORPORATE LATEST UPPER AIR DATA THAT IS LACKING FROM THE PACIFIC THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A BETTER ANALYSIS DOWNSTREAM. EUROPEAN...GFS...AND CANADIAN MODELS DO SHOW THE SYSTEM BOMBING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. MAJOR QUESTIONS TO ANSWER WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...TIMING OF THE COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE REGION AS THE STORM PULLS ON BY THE COAST AND WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. RIGHT NOW I AM HEDGING TOWARDS SNOW ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS OF THE CWA TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER ON THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. I CANNOT RULE OUT ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE COAST AND WILL MENTION SNOW IN THE FORECAST AND HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO...NO SURE OF THE AMOUNTS YET. GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED BACK AND FORTH ON MAX TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT I THINK AS WE GET MORE ANALYSIS INTO THE MODELS FROM THE WEST COAST SYSTEM THE MODELS WILL START TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS WELL. I WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND START HEDGING TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LARGE 5H TROF. WITH A DRIER ARCTIC AIR MASS WE WILL REMAIN DRY BUT COLD...WELL BELOW CLIMO. EXTENDED MOS NUMBERS AREA RIGHT AROUND 40 AND LIKELY BIAS IN FAVOR OF CLIMO...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. WITH US ENTERING THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER WE CAN POSSIBLY GO DOWN ON RECORD AS THE COLDEST DECEMBER EVER IN WILMINGTON...RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN THE TOP 3.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Crayon map is for heavy snow S.Carolina up the seaboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 wow nam is significantly slower than the 12 and 6z runs w/ the southwest s/w. It looks a lot like the euro so far. Knock on wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The atlantic low appears to be getting out of the way faster on the 12z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Also, our ocean low is quite a bit NE of the 12 run at 54 hours -- significant shift there. NAM closes it off at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 wow.. nam may phase earlier. might see a more NW low placement here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Great write up Allan and thank you! Nice to see both the ECMWF ensemble and operational in agreement! Things are getting tighter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 My afternoon update and some comments on the 12z ECMWF Ensembles What do you think for Athens Ga? We may get a little less than central Georgia?? I sometimes think you are a little slow. I talk about athens all the time, so does everyone else so it makes no sense that you have always come on here and asked this question when it's already been discussed. Enough of this, if you want to ask this question go to the other thread. In my back yard questions here are going to be deleted and repeated offenders given a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah but here is DTs take on the very thing we are talking about. GFS/Euro Look, right now I am more inclined to lean heavily towards the EURO. I have been following models for a long time and cannot remember ever seeing such an extreme solution models almost the same six times in a row. I am just saying I can see where the NWS is coming from as far as being on the cautious side with three days left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 HPC day 4 fxcast focused on our region: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 wow.. nam may phase earlier. might see a more NW low placement here Pretty big changes from the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanehic Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 ilm afd.... LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...ITCHING TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND BUT WILL BE PATIENT AND WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE UPCOMING WEEKEND STORM OFF THE COAST. MODELS ARE STARTING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE SITUATION BUT STILL TOO EARLY AS SYSTEM THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORM IS COMING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WILL FEEL BETTER WITH ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS TO INCORPORATE LATEST UPPER AIR DATA THAT IS LACKING FROM THE PACIFIC THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A BETTER ANALYSIS DOWNSTREAM. EUROPEAN...GFS...AND CANADIAN MODELS DO SHOW THE SYSTEM BOMBING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. MAJOR QUESTIONS TO ANSWER WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...TIMING OF THE COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE REGION AS THE STORM PULLS ON BY THE COAST AND WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. RIGHT NOW I AM HEDGING TOWARDS SNOW ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS OF THE CWA TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER ON THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. I CANNOT RULE OUT ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE COAST AND WILL MENTION SNOW IN THE FORECAST AND HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO...NO SURE OF THE AMOUNTS YET. GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED BACK AND FORTH ON MAX TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT I THINK AS WE GET MORE ANALYSIS INTO THE MODELS FROM THE WEST COAST SYSTEM THE MODELS WILL START TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS WELL. I WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND START HEDGING TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LARGE 5H TROF. WITH A DRIER ARCTIC AIR MASS WE WILL REMAIN DRY BUT COLD...WELL BELOW CLIMO. EXTENDED MOS NUMBERS AREA RIGHT AROUND 40 AND LIKELY BIAS IN FAVOR OF CLIMO...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. WITH US ENTERING THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER WE CAN POSSIBLY GO DOWN ON RECORD AS THE COLDEST DECEMBER EVER IN WILMINGTON...RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN THE TOP 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 LOL, yes it is.... at this rate the storm will be winding down about the time I get back on Tuesday. LOL This has gone from friday night to sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Bit of a warm up ahead of the storm on this run -- at 60 hours, 850s above 0 in all of S.C.and much of southern half of Tenn. Sure it's not an issue though once low cranks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 WOW! At 66hrs NAM still has 500mb closed low over southeast TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Streams are much more seperate in the 18z NAM vs the 12z NAM. Probably because of the influence of 12z GFS boundary conditions. GFS wasnt far off from being a good solution. 18z NAM 500mb Vort 12z NAM 500mb Vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm hoping the phase does happen as early as possible, somewhere in the northern gulf because frankly, my experience living in Charlotte the last 20 years has shown me that the rap around/Atlantic moisture doesn't work out this far west. If we're going to get a good amount of QPF, we need it from the gulf while the LOW is to our SW throwing moisture northeast. That's just what I've seen in the past, I could be wrong. Maybe this storm could be so strong as to get good QPF that far west from the Atlantic but I'm so very skeptical of that happening. Maybe some mets can educate me on how strong the storm would need to be for Charlotte metro to get in on some Atlantic banding when the LOW bombs off the coast? But I'm guessing it would HAVE to be the historic storm shown on EURO. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 12Z Euro ensembles are still east and not quite as deep as the Op run, but the difference is less which is a very good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Bit of a warm up ahead of the storm on this run -- at 60 hours, 850s above 0 in all of S.C.and much of southern half of Tenn. Sure it's not an issue though once low cranks up. Don't worry, 850mb is very dry ahead of this system and once the precip starts it will cool to it's wetbulb..then there will be caa to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 big phase incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 A quick note as everyone starts posting and dissecting afternoon AFDs... I would like to point out that while it is easy to be overcritical of the NWS discussions and forecasts, everyone needs to keep in mind that we have some of the best discussions, forecasts, and play-by-plays going on right here. I think the tendency is for people to take the NWS forecast as what actually is going to happen. In reality, we have access to the same information many of the forecasters use (albeit not in such a one-stop shop sort of way). Also, people get upset when a particular office doesn't "honk the horn" as much as one model or solution would depict. A lot of this comes into the forecasting process and SOP the NWS uses, which essentially "protects" against the forecaster from going all-in for one solution. With time, and as things become more clear, you will see the forecast resemble what you may expect. At the same time, be fully sure that the appropriate EM officials are kept in close contact with what to expect, and can plan accordingly. Just keep it in mind as we move forward. Remember....we have excellent discussion and dissection of the situation as it unfolds here, so you (everyone) should be well aware of the possibilities regardless of what the NWS official forecast depicts. (end rant) side note..... Wow (john) can I have my red tag back? thanks! Excellent post Nate! Great to see you here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 A quick note as everyone starts posting and dissecting afternoon AFDs... I would like to point out that while it is easy to be overcritical of the NWS discussions and forecasts, everyone needs to keep in mind that we have some of the best discussions, forecasts, and play-by-plays going on right here. I think the tendency is for people to take the NWS forecast as what actually is going to happen. In reality, we have access to the same information many of the forecasters use (albeit not in such a one-stop shop sort of way). Also, people get upset when a particular office doesn't "honk the horn" as much as one model or solution would depict. A lot of this comes into the forecasting process and SOP the NWS uses, which essentially "protects" against the forecaster from going all-in for one solution. With time, and as things become more clear, you will see the forecast resemble what you may expect. At the same time, be fully sure that the appropriate EM officials are kept in close contact with what to expect, and can plan accordingly. Just keep it in mind as we move forward. Remember....we have excellent discussion and dissection of the situation as it unfolds here, so you (everyone) should be well aware of the possibilities regardless of what the NWS official forecast depicts. (end rant) side note..... Wow (john) can I have my red tag back? thanks! Nate Hardin? I saw you a few times at met class, but was in Heather's lab class. Good to see you on! If this thing gets any slower, we're going to be looking at a Boxing Day Snowstorm. I'd prefer to get some Christmas snow, but the more the better, no matter when it occurs. It has seemed that storms have been coming in quicker than expected this year, though, so it will be interesting to see if that occurs with this storm, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 75 hrs... we see our 3 waves lining up First over LA, second over the Tenn valley, third over W Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow... talk about a southern jog at 84 on the NAM. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM gets a little heavy handed with the northern jet, but it's getting there. it's really got the set up. just the dynamics of a phase to piece together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM gets a little heavy handed with the northern jet, but it's getting there. it's really got the set up. just the dynamics of a phase to piece together. Didnt allan say earlier that the later hours of the NAM is influenced by the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.