Christmas Storm IV

[GreensboroWx]

Yes, the '93 storm was picked up by the models well ahead of time. It was one big, bad storm. This one, of course, looks to be different. '93 was inland and quick while this one appears to be just offshore and much slower. We shall see....

Wasn't the Superstorm picked up by the models days before, as well? I always hear about that as the first great triumph of weather numerical models. In this case, the Euro has been honking the horn for days, although the other models have been picking up as time goes on, it seems. I don't know how many models there were back in 1993, though.

Of course, I don't know how close this really is to '93 as far as the setup. I know '93 was an inland runner, which screwed most of NC.

[Carvers Gap]

This storm could potentially re-write some understandings, basically that large storms don't happen during strong La Nina's. January is looking colder on the 12z GFS - and earlier runs as well. Looks like a block tries reform late in the period. If that happens, all bets are off for this winter.

[Carvers Gap]

Yes, the '93 storm was picked up by the models well ahead of time. It was one big, bad storm. This one, of course, looks to be different. '93 was inland and quick while this one appears to be just offshore and much slower. We shall see....

The '93 storm was not quick.

[Shawn]

Great point if this pans out like it seems. There are going to be some serious issues. As a firefighter rescue responder, this could be ugly. Power, accidents, tree and power lines down. Lets not forget the big picture.

Hopefully a lot of people will be indoors and not traveling around if this thing happens since it's Christmas. The warning is going to be short because of the uncertainty especially as far South much less the coasts.

Even when smaller storms are forecast and happen, there are accidents and people who don't believe it.

[BullCityWx]

Don't know if anyone has mentioned it but as depicted on the euro, this is a 48 hour event for most of NC

[Shawn]

Yes, the '93 storm was picked up by the models well ahead of time. It was one big, bad storm. This one, of course, looks to be different. '93 was inland and quick while this one appears to be just offshore and much slower. We shall see....

Current depictions on the Euro show areas who didn't get snow in the 93 super storm would this time around since it is tracking the coast. Maybe even more snow in some locations due to the speed and intensity.

[Wow]

Just for a little fun, here's a comparison of the upper air setup from the Euro to the 93 and 96 storms

96 hrs 12z ECMWF

March 93

Jan 96

[strongwxnc]

News to me QC.

Don't know if anyone has mentioned it but as depicted on the euro, this is a 48 hour event for most of NC

[Carvers Gap]

Just for a little fun, here's a comparison of the upper air setup from the Euro to the 93 and 96 storms

96 hrs 12z ECMWF

March 93

Jan 96

'96 and '10 are uncanny in their similarities.

[jburns]

RALEIGH AFD.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

THE 00Z ECMWF IS EXTREME IN ITS PRECIPITATION GENERATION AND WITHOUT

SUPPORT OF OTHER MODELS. IT DOES HOWEVER MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE

AND HAS AT LEAST A CHANCE TO VERIFY. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SUPPORTS THE

00Z RUN WITH A STENGTHENING SURFACE LOW CLOSE TO THE COAST AND IS

DISTURBING. THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR ALL OF

CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER THE 12Z MODEL RUNS OF THE CANADIAN

AND GFS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN GENERATING A

SURFACE LOW OFF THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND

PLACING IT SOMEWHERE OFF THE COAST OF CHARLESTON SUNDAY SUNRISE. THE

GFS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS IN ITS PLACEMENT

AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. A LOW EITHER STRONGER OR CLOSER TO

SHORE (ECMWF MODELS) WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE IMPACT OF THE EVENT.

THE ECMWF MODEL IS SLOWER WITH A MIDWEST SHORT WAVE... ALLOWING IT

TO PHASE WITH THE GULF COAST ENERGY... PRODUCING AN UPPER TROUGH

FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL SATURDAY MORNING. THE

GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FASTER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE AND ALLOW THE

MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO CENTER FURTHER EAST... MAKING FOR A MORE

OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW AT OUR LATITUDE. THIS LATTER SCENARIO IS

FAVORED AT THIS TIME WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE WAY TOO UNCERTAIN TO DISCUSS MORE THAN GENERALLY.

BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION PERHAPS IN THE TWELVE HOURS PRIOR TO

NOON SUNDAY... WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FAYETTEVILLE CLINTON AREA.

WHEREVER PRECIPITATION FALLS DURING THIS EVENT... IT WILL BE SNOW.

SNOW TAPERING BACK AS ONE APPROACHES HIGHWAY ONE... AND AREAS TO THE

WEST PERHAPS EVEN MISSING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ENTIRELY. WITH THE EVENT

MORE THAN 72 HOURS OUT... THIS IS BUT ONE OF SEVERAL POSSIBLE

SCENARIOS. SOME VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON WELL

INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER NORTH

CAROLINA.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY

NIGHT LOWS 25 TO 30.

Going with the GFS/Canadian

[Shawn]

12z Euro ensembles/mean would be WONDERFUL if anyone can get a look at those for the strength. The ensembles should surely match the track and most likely the phase to an extent. We are getting very close to some of our lower resolution models being able to latch onto something like the Euro's high resolution by tonight even. Everything is trending to the monster Euro, the GFS barely misses the awesome phase now. It still gives areas a white Christmas though! The NOGAPS has gotten way stronger with the shortwave, but of course the track is terrible which is expected. The NAM looks to be a phase just outside hour 84 frames. The GGEM is trending too I believe. If the Euro hit this bomb with 3-4 days out without a bust, I'll permanently pay for data access during the winter! lol

[Lookout]

'96 and '10 are uncanny in their similarities.

If you look at the day 3 heights from the euro, it looks even closer. That's pretty dang close.

[Pilotwx]

My opinion only! I think what we are seeing back to the west is a feedback problem, the model is probably just robbing those to the west, when in reality it is just as extreme as those to the east! Just my thoughts

I agree with foothills on the qpf forecast. The SLP is pretty much perfect from western NC IMBY perspective. It starts to strengthen over the NE gulf and bombs in the atlantic. Very similar to 93.

[strongwxnc]

Not set in stone..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

238 PM EST WED DEC 22 2010

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...THE GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING A WHITE

CHRISTMAS. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER WITH ONSET.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP...IF ANY...WILL BE MINIMAL FRI

NITE AND CONTAINED TO THE MTNS. THE NAM IS SLOWEST OF ALL KEEPING

MOST OF THE AREA DRY UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GEM GLOBAL AND

THE GFS ARE THE FASTEST TAPERING THINGS OFF ACROSS THE NW BY SAT

AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT THROUGH

FCST...HAS PRECIP OVER THE WRN CWFA SAT MORN AND ALL AREAS BY

AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF TIMING BEING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OPERATIONAL

MDL PACK. THE GEM AND GFS STILL TRACK THE SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH...

KEEPING BEST PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THE SREF/NAM AND ECMWF

HAVE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACROSS THE CWFA IN A DEFORMATION ZONE AND

AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE GUIDANCE IS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH

THICKNESSES AND THERMAL PROFILES THAT SHOW SNOW WILL BY THE MAIN

P-TYPE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON

HIGHS FOR SAT GIVEN THE SLOWER ONSET. THIS COULD ALLOW A MIX WITH OR

CHANGEOVER TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-85 IN THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. GIVEN THE

MDL VARIABILITY AND THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS FCST PERIOD...WILL KEEP

THE FCST GENERALLY AS IS EXCEPT WITH THE SLOWER ONSET FRI NITE GIVEN

THE AGREEMENT THERE. THE MDLS STILL SUGGEST A SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL

INCHES FROM CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF

THE ACCUMULATION COULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY IF THE

SLOWING TREND CONTINUES.

IN THE MEAN TIME...FRIDAY WILL BE A QUIET WX DAY WITH RIDGING SFC

AND ALOFT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEAR TO

HAVE TO MOST REASONABLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEP H5

TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE S MS VALLEY 00Z SUN WITH PRECIP CONTINUING

OUT AHEAD OF IT AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOC COLD FRONT ROAR OUT ALONG

THE GULF COAST...ALL THE WAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUN. AN

UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS SUN MRNG...

DEEPEN OVER THE CAROLINAS SUN AFTN...THEN HIT THE OUTER BANKS SUN

NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING QUITE A BIT OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE

WITH IT AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA SUN EVE BEFORE DOWNSLOPE

WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW INHIBIT PRECIP SE OF THE MTNS. STILL

HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THRU SUN AFTN WHICH

SHOULD TURN TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING. AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY UP THE

COAST...NW FLOW SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS SUN NIGHT AND

CONTINUE THRU MON BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING MON NIGHT. LOOK FOR

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD TEMPS MON-TUE WITH HIGHS ABOUT 15 DEG BELOW

AVG. TEMPS WILL WARM TO WITHIN 5-8 DEG BELOW AVG WED AS A WEAK UPPER

RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGES IN AT THE SFC.

[tnweathernut]

Current depictions on the Euro show areas who didn't get snow in the 93 super storm would this time around since it is tracking the coast. Maybe even more snow in some locations due to the speed and intensity.

current depictions also show that areas that got pounded with the storm of 93 will get very little. TRI finished with a couple of feet with that one. .25 with this depiction.

[oconeexman]

GSP afd:

as of 225 PM Wednesday...the guidance is still suggesting a white

Christmas. However...the guidance is trending slower with onset.

There is good agreement that precipitation...if any...will be minimal Friday

night and contained to the mountains the NAM is slowest of all keeping

most of the area dry until Sat afternoon...while the Gem global and

the GFS are the fastest tapering things off across the northwest by Sat

afternoon. The European model (ecmwf)...which has been remarkably consistent through

forecast...has precipitation over the western County warning forecast area Sat morning and all areas by

afternoon. The European model (ecmwf) timing being in the middle of the operational

model pack. The Gem and GFS still track the surface low farther south...

keeping best precipitation farther south as well. The sref/NAM and European model (ecmwf)

have significant precipitation across the County warning forecast area in a deformation zone and

area of upper divergence. The guidance is all in good agreement with

thicknesses and thermal profiles that show snow will by the main

p-type over most of the forecast area. There is still some question on

highs for Sat given the slower onset. This could allow a mix with or

changeover to rain south of I-85 in the upstate and NE Georgia. Given the

model variability and the importance of this forecast period...will keep

the forecast generally as is except with the slower onset Friday night given

the agreement there. The models still suggest a snowfall of several

inches from Christmas day into the evening. However...the bulk of

the accumulation could be from late afternoon into Sunday if the

slowing trend continues.

[Brick Tamland]

So, The Euro has been the most consistent and makes meterological sense, but they are going with the GFS/Canadian.

RALEIGH AFD.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

THE 00Z ECMWF IS EXTREME IN ITS PRECIPITATION GENERATION AND WITHOUT

SUPPORT OF OTHER MODELS. IT DOES HOWEVER MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE

AND HAS AT LEAST A CHANCE TO VERIFY. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SUPPORTS THE

00Z RUN WITH A STENGTHENING SURFACE LOW CLOSE TO THE COAST AND IS

DISTURBING. THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR ALL OF

CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER THE 12Z MODEL RUNS OF THE CANADIAN

AND GFS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN GENERATING A

SURFACE LOW OFF THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND

PLACING IT SOMEWHERE OFF THE COAST OF CHARLESTON SUNDAY SUNRISE. THE

GFS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS IN ITS PLACEMENT

AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. A LOW EITHER STRONGER OR CLOSER TO

SHORE (ECMWF MODELS) WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE IMPACT OF THE EVENT.

THE ECMWF MODEL IS SLOWER WITH A MIDWEST SHORT WAVE... ALLOWING IT

TO PHASE WITH THE GULF COAST ENERGY... PRODUCING AN UPPER TROUGH

FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL SATURDAY MORNING. THE

GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FASTER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE AND ALLOW THE

MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO CENTER FURTHER EAST... MAKING FOR A MORE

OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW AT OUR LATITUDE. THIS LATTER SCENARIO IS

FAVORED AT THIS TIME WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE WAY TOO UNCERTAIN TO DISCUSS MORE THAN GENERALLY.

BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION PERHAPS IN THE TWELVE HOURS PRIOR TO

NOON SUNDAY... WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FAYETTEVILLE CLINTON AREA.

WHEREVER PRECIPITATION FALLS DURING THIS EVENT... IT WILL BE SNOW.

SNOW TAPERING BACK AS ONE APPROACHES HIGHWAY ONE... AND AREAS TO THE

WEST PERHAPS EVEN MISSING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ENTIRELY. WITH THE EVENT

MORE THAN 72 HOURS OUT... THIS IS BUT ONE OF SEVERAL POSSIBLE

SCENARIOS. SOME VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON WELL

INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER NORTH

CAROLINA.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY

NIGHT LOWS 25 TO 30.

Going with the GFS/Canadian

[Shawn]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

246 PM EST WED DEC 22 2010

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE REALITY OF A SIGNIFICANT

STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SOMETIME

LATE AFTERNOON ON CHRISTMAS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS

IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS

SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING HOW A

CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTERACTS

WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND THE EVENTUAL TIMING AND EVOLUTION

OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA

AND DEEPEN AS IT EMERGES IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS. THE

ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN

COMPARED TO THE GFS BUT EVEN THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE

WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN.

THE KEY TO THIS EVENT WILL BE HOW WELL THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY

PHASES WITH THE POTENT CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA

COAST...AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.

THIS WILL DETERMINE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE

DEGREE TO WHICH IS DEEPENS AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. THE GFS IS

LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA

WHEN THE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...KEEPING THE DEEPEST

MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW

CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE AND SHOWS A MUCH DEEPER LOW...EFFECTIVELY

PULLING THE COLDER AIR OVER THE AREA AND RESULTING IN THE

POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT. GIVING SPECIFIC SNOW

AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY MEANINGLESS

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS.

HOWEVER...SNOWFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA COULD RANGE FROM A

DUSTING OR LIGHT ACCUMULATION TO SEVERAL INCHES IF EVERYTHING

COMES TOGETHER AND A DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP NORTHWEST OF THE

LOW. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME

SNOWFALL IN THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...BUT AGAIN OTHER FACTORS

SUCH AS GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON

ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH AN EVENT STILL 3-4 DAYS

AWAY...ELECTED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER

GRIDS...CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN

SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW

ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ALL

PRECIPITATION...LIQUID OR FROZEN LOOKS TO BE DURING THE PERIOD

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN

WELL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S.

GENERALLY EXPECTING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE

FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF

DEPARTING EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE

MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY

CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH

THE UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL

(AROUND 10-20 DEGREES) ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE UPPER FLOW

BECOMES MORE ZONAL FROM THE WEST.

[Lookout]

Not set in stone..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

238 PM EST WED DEC 22 2010

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...THE GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING A WHITE

CHRISTMAS. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER WITH ONSET.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP...IF ANY...WILL BE MINIMAL FRI

NITE AND CONTAINED TO THE MTNS. THE NAM IS SLOWEST OF ALL KEEPING

MOST OF THE AREA DRY UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GEM GLOBAL AND

THE GFS ARE THE FASTEST TAPERING THINGS OFF ACROSS THE NW BY SAT

AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT THROUGH

FCST...HAS PRECIP OVER THE WRN CWFA SAT MORN AND ALL AREAS BY

AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF TIMING BEING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OPERATIONAL

MDL PACK. THE GEM AND GFS STILL TRACK THE SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH...

KEEPING BEST PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THE SREF/NAM AND ECMWF

HAVE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACROSS THE CWFA IN A DEFORMATION ZONE AND

AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE GUIDANCE IS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH

THICKNESSES AND THERMAL PROFILES THAT SHOW SNOW WILL BY THE MAIN

P-TYPE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON

HIGHS FOR SAT GIVEN THE SLOWER ONSET. THIS COULD ALLOW A MIX WITH OR

CHANGEOVER TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-85 IN THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. GIVEN THE

MDL VARIABILITY AND THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS FCST PERIOD...WILL KEEP

THE FCST GENERALLY AS IS EXCEPT WITH THE SLOWER ONSET FRI NITE GIVEN

THE AGREEMENT THERE. THE MDLS STILL SUGGEST A SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL

INCHES FROM CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF

THE ACCUMULATION COULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY IF THE

SLOWING TREND CONTINUES.

IN THE MEAN TIME...FRIDAY WILL BE A QUIET WX DAY WITH RIDGING SFC

AND ALOFT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEAR TO

HAVE TO MOST REASONABLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEP H5

TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE S MS VALLEY 00Z SUN WITH PRECIP CONTINUING

OUT AHEAD OF IT AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOC COLD FRONT ROAR OUT ALONG

THE GULF COAST...ALL THE WAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUN. AN

UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS SUN MRNG...

DEEPEN OVER THE CAROLINAS SUN AFTN...THEN HIT THE OUTER BANKS SUN

NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING QUITE A BIT OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE

WITH IT AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA SUN EVE BEFORE DOWNSLOPE

WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW INHIBIT PRECIP SE OF THE MTNS. STILL

HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THRU SUN AFTN WHICH

SHOULD TURN TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING. AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY UP THE

COAST...NW FLOW SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS SUN NIGHT AND

CONTINUE THRU MON BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING MON NIGHT. LOOK FOR

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD TEMPS MON-TUE WITH HIGHS ABOUT 15 DEG BELOW

AVG. TEMPS WILL WARM TO WITHIN 5-8 DEG BELOW AVG WED AS A WEAK UPPER

RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGES IN AT THE SFC.

If things play out similar to the euro, any mixing won't be a problem anywhere in their cwa or north ga imho. The gfs, with it's lighter amounts does suggest it could because the gfs has the screw lookout eddie but the nam is colder and does not. Temps start out in the upper 20s sat morning so it's hard to picture much warming sat regardless but it depends on when the precip starts. It's more likely to start as a mix and go to snow than it is to start as snow and go to a mix imo.

All of this is irrelevant though if the euro is right, it would be all snow everywhere..except maybe a very brief mix at the start before evaporational cooling cools the column.

[jburns]

So, The Euro has been the most consistent and makes meterological sense, but they are going with the GFS/Canadian.

Could be no sig snow west of US1.

[UNCCmetgrad]

So, The Euro has been the most consistent and makes meterological sense, but they are going with the GFS/Canadian.

They are simply still being conservative which they should be. Believe me, you don't want to forecast a historic snowstorm three days out and then bust with only a couple of inches. Especially on Christmas

[Brick Tamland]

Could be no sig snow west of US1.

That just seems to go against what everyone has been saying here.

[burgertime]

So, The Euro has been the most consistent and makes meterological sense, but they are going with the GFS/Canadian.

Considering the Euro shows a once in a life time storm the GFS makes more meteorological sense. Some things will never change with you.

[Brick Tamland]

They are simply still being conservative which they should be. Believe me, you don't want to forecast a historic snowstorm three days out and then bust with only a couple of inches. Especially on Christmas

Tthey should worry more about people traveling during the possiblity of a huge snowstorm instead of saving face.

[strongwxnc]

Classic

The gfs, with it's lighter amounts does suggest it could because the gfs has the screw lookout eddie

All of this is irrelevant though if the euro is right, it would be all snow everywhere..except maybe a very brief mix at the start before evaporational cooling cools the column.

[HKY_WX]

current depictions also show that areas that got pounded with the storm of 93 will get very little. TRI finished with a couple of feet with that one. .25 with this depiction.

Agreed, a track as far west as 93 is unlikely. However, I think the models are undergoing the SLP initially in the northern GOM. If you look at the phase on the EURO b/n 72-96, the SLP IMO, should be stronger in that area. I think we're going to see more adjustments before this is all said and done.

Maybe I harp on climo too much, but I still have a hard time believing the all snow soundings so far east in the coastal plain with that SLP track and this still being december as opposed to January or early February. Euro profiles (500-1000 thickness) do support snow very far east, and i just find it hard to believe there will be no mixing in the mid-levels(800-700mb). Something is still slightly off at the sfc.

[wake4est]

Tthey should worry more about people traveling during the possiblity of a huge snowstorm instead of saving face.

They put out a hazardous weather outlook for that very reason.

[weatherheels]

Wow Jburns, I can't believe RAH is going with the GFS/Canadian considering how consistent the euro has been. Thats why they get paid, right? .

Obviously the Euro is extreme and it's understandable not wanting to get on it's wagon still 3 days out, but if anything the Euro has been leading the way with GFS and Canadian trending towards it, then past it in terms of location of the slp being projected further east because of a later phase. Either way, it seems pretty difficult for me to go against the Euro right now, just too consistent and too good of a track record.

[jburns]

They are simply still being conservative which they should be. Believe me, you don't want to forecast a historic snowstorm three days out and then bust with only a couple of inches. Especially on Christmas

Well there is a lot of room between an historic storm and no significant snow. Three days out yes, but the third and part of the second are holidays with everything closed. If there job is to alert to allow time for people to prepare they are dangerously close to blowing it.

[oconeexman]

If things play out similar to the euro, any mixing won't be a problem anywhere in their cwa or north ga imho. The gfs, with it's lighter amounts does suggest it could because the gfs has the screw lookout eddie but the nam is colder and does not. Temps start out in the upper 20s sat morning so it's hard to picture much warming sat regardless but it depends on when the precip starts. It's more likely to start as a mix and go to snow than it is to start as snow and go to a mix imo.

All of this is irrelevant though if the euro is right, it would be all snow everywhere..except maybe a very brief mix at the start before evaporational cooling cools the column.

With the 850's crashing I see no way this goes from mix to rain even in the Lookout Zone! Like you said the borderline areas may start as rain/mix but will change over to all snow pretty quick at this point.