Christmas Storm IV

[oconeexman]

Since this board is moving slower due to all the traffic......could we please keep the "What about Asheville" and "How about X city" questions OFF this board? Read more, post less and you'll find out all you need to know.

Just a reminder to please keep all the IMBY questions off.....Thanks!!!!!

This will only get worse as we get closer to the event. Queencity and Lookout and other temp Mods will be busy, i'd gladly help out if asked! Have a very low tolerance level for those who don't heed warnings and read the rules. The forum is slow enough without this clutter!

Reminder there is a topic for the weenie posters and silly questions, but not in here please!

[eyes2theskies]

I am wondering if a storm like this would cause a Derecho like the one i experienced with the March 1993 super storm and if it did would all of the convection rob us of some moisture here in NC.

[Lookout]

Have you checked your pm's? Delete this when you read it.

I would but I can't, they have been turned off to try and keep the board from crashing with all this traffic.

[burgertime]

I would but I can't, they have been turned off to try and keep the board from crashing with all this traffic.

I'm willing to help with temp modding if needed. Going to be out for the 18z runs but will be here 00z and tomorrow until the snow hits.

[shaggy]

from Greenville, Kinston to Ahoskie at 102 the 850 is close, so in my opinon with this strong ofa system yes its cause for concern right up to almost 95 with mixing issues during the heart of the storm. The stronger it gets the more chance it pulls in enough mid level warmth for mix or complete sloppy mess for a period but that woudln't last too long on the Euro because it continues to march up the coast just offshore and by 108 hour you're already switched back to extremely heavy snow. Don't sweat it that you go to rain for a little while, you will switch back. Its impossible to nail down the exact track yet though.

Thanks. Having lived here my whole life it is always a concern when the low tracks as close as the euro projects. I'll be ok if we get a mix for a bit as long as we end up with a few inches of snow. I'd love 18+ but i'll take whatever I can get.

Another question I have that has not been brought up would be any sort of wind effects. This low looks like it means business and when I hear comparisons to 93' I remember the gusts we had in that storm that were 80+mph.

[RevDodd]

I can see where you're coming from, but if you start an IMBY thread I think it'll turn into a disaster. I mean, if people just sit back and read the threads the Mets and people with access let us all know about how much QPF for a lot of locations. Just be patient and you're question will more than likely get answered. I just don't want to see a pissing contest of a thread that is "imby" questions.... usually doesnt go well, but I understand what you're saying, and maybe the mods will like the idea... idk.

Fair enough. I just know it's a pain for folks who don't want to wade through them, and frustrating for new folks who are as excited as we all are about this ... they just don't share the appreciation of the storm dynamics.

I guess it's just our @#$#@ customer service mantra coming out in me: Try to find a way to say yes, without saying no.

[BullCityWx]

This run brings backlash snow showers and flurries to JACKSONVILLE.

[lilj4425]

From Andy Wood at Fox Carolina:

Bottom Line Right Now: The latest run of the European forecast model (12z) has shown a virtually identical forecast frack from previous runs. The track show is from southern Louisiana to Jacksonville, FL to Myrtle Beach, SC. This consistency speaks volumes to how it has been un-waivering in handling the Pacific-originating storm and the timing of the northern/cold jet interacting with it . In fact, the Euro’s forecast track has stayed nearly identical for 6-consecutive runs, which I have never seen before with any forecast model I have ever used.

Importantly, even though the model shows a literal white hurricane on the SC coast, it is important to realize that we are still only about to reach half-time of the game here and we may all need to go into the locker room to calm all the buzz down! There is still the 3rd and 4th quarter left to play and that is when the game is decided.

Understand, there is ZERO forecast for a 1″ of snow coming from Fox Carolina right now. There is ZERO forecast for 12″/a foot of snow coming from Fox Carolina right now. As Alex, Kendra & I have stated on here the last few days, the ingredients and timing are so critical in this RARE situation with two jetstreams converging.

It now appears likely that a coastal storm track will take shape, but there is still uncertainty if that track will be 300miles offshore or closer to shore. A track a bit further offshore puts down less snow. Note that there are other model spitting out 1″-2″ projections of snow for our area. As forecasters, we use these forecast models as trend-setters. For now, there is no doubt the trends are for a White Christmas, but it is still a bit early to say if that means light snowflakes falling or a more significant storm affecting most of the southeastern United States.

[DLI4SCwx]

This run brings backlash snow showers and flurries to JACKSONVILLE.

Do you have an idea of what the QPF numbers look like for the major cities?

[BIG FROSTY]

Man, I getting scared to ask a question But 850's go -7 to -10 from start to finish here. So how do you figure the ratios ? never have known how you do this. TIA

[burgertime]

Do you have an idea of what the QPF numbers look like for the major cities?

That has been answered ATL .50 points east and north .75 and up. RDU looks like over an inch.

[RaleighWx]

UKMEt doesnt look bad

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/PNM_panel.gif

[HKY_WX]

I agree with foothills on the qpf forecast. The SLP is pretty much perfect from western NC IMBY perspective. It starts to strengthen over the NE gulf and bombs in the atlantic. Very similar to 93.

[superjames1992]

I agree with foothills on the qpf forecast. The SLP is pretty much perfect from western NC IMBY perspective. It starts to strengthen over the NE gulf and bombs in the atlantic. Very similar to 93.

If this ends up being a further east version of '93, then WOW!!!

I'd even take '93 verbatim, though that would give me rain changing to 6" of snow on the back end. I was only a year old at the time.

Good to see the Euro hold serve. My confidence is gaining for a significant snowfall here.

[BullCityWx]

Charleston, yes THAT Charleston, gets nearly a foot of snow this run. Absolutely insane.

[oconeexman]

UKMEt doesnt look bad

http://meteocentre.c...2/PNM_panel.gif

A little less suppressed and more in line with Dr. NoDoubt wouldn't you say?

[BullCityWx]

Half an inch of my qpf falls with 850 temps close to -10C...20:1 ratios would be more than attainable.

[DLI4SCwx]

Charleston, yes THAT Charleston, gets nearly a foot of snow this run. Absolutely insane.

That's awesome! Stormsfury deserves to get dumped on.

[DopplerWx]

I still feel nervous about the slp trending north and screwing the eastern carolinas.

[wncsnow]

Now that we are seeing the setup and the overall pattern for development of this system.. what are some analogs we can compare this storm with? Obviously a lot of people are saying Blizzard of 93.

[dsaur]

If this is a phase bomb anything close to 93 there will be some very dangerous winds blowing on trees that have never felt the weight of so much snow. And can't forget about the possible record cold coming in behind. T

[LithiaWx]

If a met or two could please answer this I'd really appreciate it. How can there be so many analogs to Superstorm of 1993. I thought that it was first off a 1:100 year event and was a triple phasing system. As far as I have heard this is a double phasing storm and is not modeled as strong as the Superstorm of 1993... Do we really think we could have a Superstorm of 2010 in a La Nina year?

[Shawn]

If a met or two could please answer this I'd really appreciate it. How can there be so many analogs to Superstorm of 1993. I thought that it was first off a 1:100 year event and was a triple phasing system. As far as I have heard this is a double phasing storm and is not modeled as strong as the Superstorm of 1993... Do we really think we could have a Superstorm of 2010 in a La Nina year?

There are three major pieces of energy from the Northern Stream depicted by the Euro that go into a super strong short wave coming out of the west at the exact right time.

This is NOT a typical Nina year. See that monster system out west? See the gigantic ridging almost to the North pole? That's not normal.

[Lowpressure]

If this is a phase bomb anything close to 93 there will be some very dangerous winds blowing on trees that have never felt the weight of so much snow. And can't forget about the possible record cold coming in behind. T

Great point if this pans out like it seems. There are going to be some serious issues. As a firefighter rescue responder, this could be ugly. Power, accidents, tree and power lines down. Lets not forget the big picture.

[eyewall]

Now that we are seeing the setup and the overall pattern for development of this system.. what are some analogs we can compare this storm with? Obviously a lot of people are saying Blizzard of 93.

1993 was an inland runner where this is not.

[Carvers Gap]

Tnweathernut. Blue Ridge. I looked at the Euro. I think at this point our region may be out on this run for the second run in a row. Blue Ridge are you still thinking we may be in business? No, this is not an imby forecast. This is discussion for an entire region, E TN - and yes, it involves amounts much as the NC folks discuss. However, IF this storm winds up the way it is projected I cannot help but think this backs west just a bit. Now, whether that gets us back in the game, I don't know. I would have to admit that I'm just as nervous that this system phases late and goes offshore. We're still 3-4 days away. A lot can and probably will change. I don't think the Euro is entirely supported by other models at this point.

I have read several posts about the '93 superstorm. I do understand the '93 superstorm comparisons. However, please remember that was an excellent storm west of the Apps. This one does not appear to be that way yet. So, the comparison stops there.

Edit: Eyewall corrected that last point as well.

[superjames1992]

Wasn't the Superstorm picked up by the models days before, as well? I always hear about that as the first great triumph of weather numerical models. In this case, the Euro has been honking the horn for days, although the other models have been picking up as time goes on, it seems. I don't know how many models there were back in 1993, though.

Of course, I don't know how close this really is to '93 as far as the setup. I know '93 was an inland runner, which screwed most of NC.

[Snowacane]

Wasn't the Superstorm picked up by the models days before, as well? I always hear about that as the first great triumph of weather numerical models. In this case, the Euro has been honking the horn for days, although the other models have been picking up as time goes on, it seems. I don't know how many models there were back in 1993, though.

Yes, it had it almost a week in advance, won a bet off that one.

[Cheeznado]

I really think the only valid comparison to the 93 storm is the very unusual possibility of a major snow event all the way from parts of the deep south to New England. A "normal" SECS would only hit a smaller geographic area,. I do not think this will rival 93 down here as that storm really became very strong way to the south- probably will not have a blizzard in ATL for example even if we do get decent snow.

[eyewall]

Wasn't the Superstorm picked up by the models days before, as well? I always hear about that as the first great triumph of weather numerical models. In this case, the Euro has been honking the horn for days, although the other models have been picking up as time goes on, it seems. I don't know how many models there were back in 1993, though.

Of course, I don't know how close this really is to '93 as far as the setup. I know '93 was an inland runner, which screwed most of NC.

Yes the models had the superstorm well in advance. Not sure with different tech and parameters (theoretically better now) how this situation compares .