Christmas Storm IV

[Wow]

QPF output, FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH (which isn't that much yet) is about the same as the 0z

[RevDodd]

Cold air should be in place over the Coastal Plain, but how much displacement would take place from the bombing low?

[burgertime]

<br />992 mb low off Myrtle Beach at 102 !  wow, dont' get that often.  Heavy snow all of carolinas and Georgia, except tapers toward the foothills and western sections. Althoughi 'm not concerned really since there will be an inverted or lee troughing going on through the Sava. River valley to western Carolinas, which models don't handle well with Ga lows.  <br />Through 108 hours the qpf line runs .75" from Ahtens to GSP to CLT. Ramps up much faster points east.  AVL and ATL get around .50" and a little less to the west of that in nw NC and nw GA.  Overall very close to its previous runs<br />

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Pretty amazing it might still be snowing out to 12z on Monday!!

[WidreMann]

And at 120, central NC is at -10 at 850 with the 0 line well, well off-shore. It's going to be COLD. May start out in the 30s, but I doubt it'll stay there for long.

[beanskip]

Whens the last time in snowed in Atlanta with -10C 850s????

What kind of ratios are we talking about? 15-1? 20-1?

[strongwxnc]

WOW

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[CaryWx]

The EURO's yelling--"Follow me, boys!"...and it ain't taken' no prisoners. What say you, other models?

[downeastnc]

Cold air should be in place over the Coastal Plain, but how much displacement would take place from the bombing low?

Right the low tracking closer and stronger are bad bad bad bad for us, we end up with a warm nose and sleet or rain and temps in the low 30's.

[jburns]

WOW

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Noticing some slowdown for the first time. Hope the board can handle what is going to happen in the next 4 days.

[Tacoma]

doesn't this thing bomb over western carolinas?

[burgertime]

19-

I think this looks good for us in Charlotte, but I am an amateur, what do you think?

CLT will be buried until Tuesday if this were to verify.

[RaleighWx]

12z EURO liquid QPF is 1.64 through 12z Monday with more to come for RDU. More to come after that.

I have never see this type of scenario before. A phase with the storm crawling north this far south.

[HKY_WX]

To me the the phase is further west this run and little more neg tilted. I am waiting for the 6 hr increments to see how the SLP tracks.

[tnweathernut]

Right the low tracking closer and stronger are bad bad bad bad for us, we end up with a warm nose and sleet or rain and temps in the low 30's.

I'd trade spots with you right now and not even think two things about it.

[fig]

Right the low tracking closer and stronger are bad bad bad bad for us, we end up with a warm nose and sleet or rain and temps in the low 30's.

Agreed..We'll have to see what the other runs do, but this run is no bueno for those of us east of 95...although we are used to getting screwed here

[lilj4425]

So what are we now? 5 out of 5? 6 out of 6? Euro is saying "who's your daddy now GFS?" Euro remaining consistent this many runs in a row is something you can't go against.

[WidreMann]

12z EURO liquid QPF is 1.64 through 12z Monday with more to come for RDU. More to come after that.

I have never see this type of scenario before. A phase with the storm crawling north this far south.

That's two feet of snow easy, with the good ratios we'll probably be getting toward the end.

[dsaur]

I've been having a good time telling people that Ga could see some snow, as at present it is 63.9. But that is a roller coaster in Ga. I can't count how many times I've seen snow when it was near 70 just before the event. I take it as good news when it is hot just before the forecast storm.

This board is very, very slow to load at present. T

[oconeexman]

Right the low tracking closer and stronger are bad bad bad bad for us, we end up with a warm nose and sleet or rain and temps in the low 30's.

Was reading GSP's disco earlier about the lack of a warm nose in this system. Don't know the specifics, leave that to the METS but it may not be a problem.

[Lookout]

This run is wetter inland than the last run. It gives me close to 1 inch liquid vs 0.50 on the 0z run (one inch amounts are just barely to my east/south). Half inch is roughly from atlanta to asheville, one inch is roughly from macon to north of augusta (maybe greenwood?) to north of columbia to greensboro with 2 inch amounts in extreme eastern nc. It should be noted there is likely greater than 1 inch liquid totals in some parts of southeast Ga and southern sc but the maps I see are pretty coarse so I can't tell exactly how much.

[WidreMann]

To all the folks worried about rain, you need to calm down. This is a cold storm. Worst case scenario would probably be some sleet when the low is close. 850s are pretty cold and all around the storm. There is an ever-strengthening HP from Canada funneling cold air down at the surface, to be enhanced by the strong low. Unless the low were to actually pass inland, you probably wouldn't see any rain. Heck, even then it might still be sleet with temps the way they are.

[FoothillsNC]

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Pretty amazing it might still be snowing out to 12z on Monday!!

yep It starts here early Christmas morning and grows sttronger for us because of the pivoting going on, we never stop snowing due to extreme lift and cverngence along the inverted axis, you can clearly see it on the isobars bowing back to the APPs.

Also, very cold aloft. The pressure gets down to 976 over ne NC

this is a huge snowstorm that clobbers the bulk areas east of ATL (ATL is good snow early on for sure) and then probably right up to the mtns in NC but obvioulsy in the piedmont they get crushed. The 5H looks similar withe closing off. but still if this happens too late, then we wont' get nearly this much qpf. I like how the EURO is holding its ground. Very imprssed with its consistency.

As to qpf, don't sweat these numbers yet because the model can't do it justice yet. Go by the setup and you'll get a much better accurate dose of reality. Since we don't have this setup EVER, I say all normal rules are out the window. You've got a neg. tilting and closing trough in a very unusual spot, being north Florida/souther GA , so all points due north are going to get slammed with heavy snow. Its like what happens in sudden Miller B for the northern Midatlantic, only the extreme blocking is pushed eveything so incredibly far south, and we have some very juicy Gulf stream waters, so who knows how this really will play out. I will say I'm almost positive that the QPF totals are extremely under done for ATL up to GSO , because that region should get into the best lift as the neg. tilt is ongoing, so deformation snows will hammer 85 for a very, very long time.

[Evil Elvis]

This run is wetter inland than the last run. It gives me close to 1 inch liquid vs 0.50 on the 0z run (one inch amounts are just barely to my east/south). Half inch is roughly from atlanta to asheville, one inch is roughly from macon to north of augusta (maybe greenwood?) to north of columbia to greensboro with 2 inch amounts in extreme eastern nc. It should be noted there is likely greater than 1 inch liquid totals in some parts of southeast Ga and southern sc but the maps I see are pretty coarse so I can't tell exactly how much.

Could this turn into another Feb 11, 1973 storm?

[downeastnc]

I'd trade spots with you right now and not even think two things about it.

Prolly be better off trading with someone in the RDU area if the low does get deeper and along the coast we will get screwed and go to rain here, I have seen it happen hundreds of times. We need this thing to go closer to the GFS with the timing of the phase here in the east.

[phil882]

Raleigh's maps are starting to come out... thru 72 hours. You can see how this is ready to go!

[Hugo]

To all the folks worried about rain, you need to calm down. This is a cold storm. Worst case scenario would probably be some sleet when the low is close. 850s are pretty cold and all around the storm. There is an ever-strengthening HP from Canada funneling cold air down at the surface, to be enhanced by the strong low. Unless the low were to actually pass inland, you probably wouldn't see any rain. Heck, even then it might still be sleet with temps the way they are.

Yeah, from what I've seen from the models thus far, the 0 line has consistently hugged the low. I would think the real threat of all rain would be only to the east of the low itself.

[BIG FROSTY]

Euro spits out .60 imby

[HKY18]

i might get an idea of what 93 was like if this verifies wasnt alive for it born the year after.

[WidreMann]

Prolly be better off trading with someone in the RDU area if the low does get deeper and along the coast we will get screwed and go to rain here, I have seen it happen hundreds of times. We need this thing to go closer to the GFS with the timing of the phase here in the east.

It's even less likely that you will see rain than that we will get 2 feet of snow.

[Rob]

12Z euro is not encouraging for Nashville. Lots of time tho.