Christmas Storm IV

[Cold Rain]

Well after another good run of the Euro, looks like it's time for another thread. The fire's blazing, the coffee is brewing and the 12Zs are not too far away. Time for some Christmas snow!

000

FXUS62 KRAH 220810

AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

310 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE

CAROLINAS TODAY. STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO

THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE

TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN TN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE

OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. WHILE WE

COULD SOME SPRINKLES EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SLIGHTLY

BETTER 1000-70MB SATURATION AND LIFT INVOF OF THE SFC WARM FRONT

WILL GIVE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA A BETTER SHOT OF MEASURING A

HUNDREDTH OF TWO THIS MORNING.

THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LIFT/CLOUDS WILL

GET KICKED EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON BY THE SHEARED CLIPPER WAVE

DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. COLD DRY AIR

ADVECTION WILL THEN ENSUE...AIDING IN CLEARING SKIES LATE THIS

AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ACTUALLY QUITE CHALLENGING. MUCH LIKE

YESTERDAY...OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL

INHIBIT INSOLATION. HOWEVER...WESTERN SECTIONS COULD BREAK OUT EARLY

ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND JUST BEFORE

SUNSET...RESULTING IN SOME OF THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE

FORECAST AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE WEST AND

SOUTHERN SECTIONS. DELAYED CLEARING WILL MAKE A COOLER ACROSS THE

NORTHEAST...WITH HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MUCH COLDER OVERNIGHT

WITH A PERSISTENT 6 TO 8 KT NORTHWESTERLY WIND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN

THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

RENEWED CAA ON THURSDAY AS THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO

EXTEND SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THE DEEP NWLY FLOW BETWEEN THE

CENTRAL US UPPER RIDGE AND CLOSED COLD CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN

ATLANTIC MARITIMES...WITH RESULT IN CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES WITH BREEZY NW

WINDS OF 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO

BELOW NORMAL RANGES...WITH THICKNESSES 25 TO 28 METERS BELOW THE 30

YEAR AVERAGE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE

LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES

TO HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHERN CA REGION LATE WEDNESDAY

AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHERE IT THEN

PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY INTO

SATURDAY. RESULTANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF

COAST WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE

SOUTHEAST COAST. UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES ALL REVOLVE

AROUND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE ECMWF

CONTINUING TO BE THE SLOWEST (ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY

SLOWER)AS IT TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF

MEXICO BEFORE BOMBING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY.

WITH THE TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING...MOST OF THE PRECIP IS NOT

EXPECTED UNTIL LATE CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT NOW...BUT WILL LEAVE A

SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY

DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. WILL THEN GRADUALLY TREND POPS OUT

OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH POPS MAY NEED TO

BE HELD IN LONGER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. ADDITIONALLY THE SLOWER

TIMING NOW FAVORS PREDOMINATELY SNOW ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC...WITH

THE GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW BEING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS

WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS

HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IF MODELS

CONTINUE TO TREND AS THEY HAVE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING

THIS TIME FRAME AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US

GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN

TRANQUIL WEATHER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.-- End Changed Discussion --

[Solak]

I find it interesting that even with the stronger wording in the Raleigh AFD , a majority of the zone forecasts issued this morning at 3:28 AM read something like the following

.CHRISTMAS DAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE

MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. LITTLE OR

NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF

SNOW 60 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS

IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.

(bolded mine)

[GaWx]

While many are screwed by the 6z gfs, CHS gets an incredible 4-5" of snow.

[Local Yokel Wx]

Wow, Just want to stop in and say thanks to all the players out there. Great Disco! Looking forward to the PBP today!

[tnweathernut]

Been following weather for well over 25 years and looking at models since the internet gave us this option. I can say, this is as screwed up as I have ever felt. There has NEVER been a time, that I can recall, where the EURO is so insistent on phasing (this close to the event) that it didn't happen. But we are within 100 hours now, and no other model shows a fully phased solution.

My heart says congrats and woohoo, but my head is strongly arguing for what was bothering me all day yesterday (a suppressed, much to do about nothing solution).

Any others that feel this way?

[Itunis]

James Spann from Birmingham says maybe up to 1/2 inch of snow for AL. Looks like this will be a Carolinas special with not too much in GA or AL.

Georgia looks to do better than Alabama, but obviously the Carolinas look to be the epicenter of this storm

[NavarreDon]

Wow, Just want to stop in and say thanks to all the players out there. Great Disco! Looking forward to the PBP today!

+1! Would like to get last nights Euro QPFs for some Mnt. locations if possible. Didn't see any on X-mas 3 thread.

[msuwx]

Put up my morning disco and video on the site in the signature below.

Nothing more needs to be said about the Euro.....what an awesome run. And I was happy to see the GFS finally cave in to the southerly low pressure track.

However, to me, caution flags are up due to the lack of strength of the system on the Canadian and GFS.

I can come up with reasons on both of them as to why they are much weaker. The GFS is probably doing its normal deal of over-emphasizing the northern branch. I showed this in my video today, but if you look at the 6z GFS 500mb at 60 hours, it really weakens the southern branch disturbance for some reason before strengthening it again later. The Canadian does something similar. If you look at the Canadian at 500, as the disturbance enters the Plains, it does some wonky stuff with it....vorticity shooting out, and the disturbance seems to jump. Odd.

However, the NAM is very similar to the Euro. And I continue to lean toward the Euro with my on-air forecast again today. However, I am leaning toward a less extreme solution due to the uncertainty involved. With that said, I certainly can see validity in the Euro solution, and I do believe something quite similar to that could very well occur.

Just look at the WV in the eastern Pacific. That disturbance is a beast. If for no other reason, I think the Euro is the way to lean right now due to it not weakening the disturbance as it emerges into the Plains.

[RevDodd]

Put up my morning disco and video on the site in the signature below.

Nothing more needs to be said about the Euro.....what an awesome run. And I was happy to see the GFS finally cave in to the southerly low pressure track.

However, to me, caution flags are up due to the lack of strength of the system on the Canadian and GFS.

I can come up with reasons on both of them as to why they are much weaker. The GFS is probably doing its normal deal of over-emphasizing the northern branch. I showed this in my video today, but if you look at the 6z GFS 500mb at 60 hours, it really weakens the southern branch disturbance for some reason before strengthening it again later. The Canadian does something similar. If you look at the Canadian at 500, as the disturbance enters the Plains, it does some wonky stuff with it....vorticity shooting out, and the disturbance seems to jump. Odd.

However, the NAM is very similar to the Euro. And I continue to lean toward the Euro with my on-air forecast again today. However, I am leaning toward a less extreme solution due to the uncertainty involved. With that said, I certainly can see validity in the Euro solution, and I do believe something quite similar to that could very well occur.

Just look at the WV in the eastern Pacific. That disturbance is a beast. If for no other reason, I think the Euro is the way to lean right now due to it not weakening the disturbance as it emerges into the Plains.

Prudent discussion this morning, Matt. And far better than the M.O. of the offices teling folks "rain with a chance of snow" still. There is little doubt that snow will be the predominant weather, but "how much" is way up in the air.

Solid job on explaining the differences in forecast models as well!

[HWY316wx]

Put up my morning disco and video on the site in the signature below.

Nothing more needs to be said about the Euro.....what an awesome run. And I was happy to see the GFS finally cave in to the southerly low pressure track.

However, to me, caution flags are up due to the lack of strength of the system on the Canadian and GFS.

I can come up with reasons on both of them as to why they are much weaker. The GFS is probably doing its normal deal of over-emphasizing the northern branch. I showed this in my video today, but if you look at the 6z GFS 500mb at 60 hours, it really weakens the southern branch disturbance for some reason before strengthening it again later. The Canadian does something similar. If you look at the Canadian at 500, as the disturbance enters the Plains, it does some wonky stuff with it....vorticity shooting out, and the disturbance seems to jump. Odd.

However, the NAM is very similar to the Euro. And I continue to lean toward the Euro with my on-air forecast again today. However, I am leaning toward a less extreme solution due to the uncertainty involved. With that said, I certainly can see validity in the Euro solution, and I do believe something quite similar to that could very well occur.

Just look at the WV in the eastern Pacific. That disturbance is a beast. If for no other reason, I think the Euro is the way to lean right now due to it not weakening the disturbance as it emerges into the Plains.

First of all, thanks Matthew for your blog, comments on here and updates.

Second, for those with 4,000 questions, go to Matthew's video today and watch it. It will save Lookout and Queen from having to ban you or put you on restriction.

Third, I was about to post about how much energy and dynamics abound in California with this system. Is it possible due to the magnitude of strength that exist, that the GFS and CMC are just simply having issues dealing with the data that the storm is spitting out? And could it be that the EURO is simply digesting what the data from the baloons and airplanes are dishing up?

[msuwx]

Another red flag is the Euro ensembles being further east and less amplified than the Operational. Now, you would expect the ensemble mean to be less amplified than the operational, but just another caution flag IMO.

[Jalba]

Here it is! Getting closer

[Amos83]

Water vapor image is very telling this morning. The LP is getting ready to enter S. California and wow look at the fetch of moisture.... already vapor screaming into Texas way out ahead of the system. What are the chances this thing is more moist further west like around W. Tenn, W. KY, and S. Illinois?

[msuwx]

Prudent discussion this morning, Matt. And far better than the M.O. of the offices teling folks "rain with a chance of snow" still. There is little doubt that snow will be the predominant weather, but "how much" is way up in the air.

Solid job on explaining the differences in forecast models as well!

Thanks!

First of all, thanks Matthew for your blog, comments on here and updates.

Second, for those with 4,000 questions, go to Matthew's video today and watch it. It will save Lookout and Queen from having to ban you or put you on restriction.

Third, I was about to post about how much energy and dynamics abound in California with this system. Is it possible due to the magnitude of strength that exist, that the GFS and CMC are just simply having issues dealing with the data that the storm is spitting out? And could it be that the EURO is simply digesting what the data from the baloons and airplanes are dishing up?

Sure thing!

Looking at the 0z/6z runs, and comparing it to current WV imagery, I think the GEM/Euro/GFS all might be to weak with the Cali disturbance. That thing is intense! Maybe it weakens as it gets over the Plains...maybe it doesn't.

I think the big key here is keeping the N Plains disturbance and this Pacific disturbance largely separate until it nears the Lower MS Valley. We need the Pacific disturbance to remain intense and in tact and then phase like nobody's business as it hits LA/MS.

[Weather Czar]

Thanks!

Sure thing!

Looking at the 0z/6z runs, and comparing it to current WV imagery, I think the GEM/Euro/GFS all might be to weak with the Cali disturbance. That thing is intense! Maybe it weakens as it gets over the Plains...maybe it doesn't.

I think the big key here is keeping the N Plains disturbance and this Pacific disturbance largely separate until it nears the Lower MS Valley. We need the Pacific disturbance to remain intense and in tact and then phase like nobody's business as it hits LA/MS.

Does the euro have higher resolution compared to the GFS and CMC? Is this why it could be stronger with the southern stream.? Along with e the nam too.

[msuwx]

Although this is getting out of my area of expertise, I believe the Euro does have superior analysis capabilities and a higher resolution overall.

Does the euro have higher resolution compared to the GFS and CMC? Is this why it could be stronger with the southern stream.? Along with e the nam too.

[HWY316wx]

BMX disco:

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WELL ALL I CAN SAY IS THAT I WAS SKEPTICAL ON MONDAY MORNING...

HESITANT ON TUESDAY MORNING...AND NOW GROWING CONFIDENT THIS

MORNING...THAT SANTA MAY BE BRINGING IN AN EXTRA PRESENT ON

CHRISTMAS. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE

EURO CONTINUES WITH AN UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH SOUTH OF THE

AREA...WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW DURING THE

DAY SATURDAY. THE HESITATION IN THE FORECAST YESTERDAY WAS THE

PURE FACT THAT THE GFS WAS TAKING THE NORTHERN ROUTE AND NOT

DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH. WELL THAT HAS BEEN THROWN

OUT THE WINDOW AND THE GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE EURO SOLUTIONS.

THE 00Z GFS WAS STILL ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER AS IT DOES NOT

INTENSIFY THE GULF LOW AS MUCH AS THE EURO. HOWEVER...THE 6Z GFS

IS COMING IN AND IS ACTUALLY A TOUCH SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN

THAN EURO...BUT IS NOW BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY THE UPPER LOW AS IT

SWINGS INTO THE GULF. THE NEW SOLUTION NEVER PHASES THE UPPER LOW

AND UPPER TROUGH UNTIL WELL PAST THE AREA AND ACTUALLY HAS LESS

QPF OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN

ROUTE.

HAVE DECIDED TO GO FULL FLEDGED WITH THE EURO THIS MORNING AS THE

CONSISTENCY THAT WE LOOK FOR HAS NOW CONTINUED FOR NOW 54 HOURS.

THAT COMBINED WITH THE GFS TRENDS...HAS ALLOWED FOR A LOT MORE IN

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE HISTORIC IF THERE

IS ANY ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS IT WOULD BE THE

FIRST TIME FOR ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NUMEROUS

TRACE EVENTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED...BUT NO EVENTS HAVE HAD MORE THAN A

TRACE. STILL REALLY TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE

AREA AS THE MODELS STILL PROVIDE SOME ISSUES IN REGARDS TO WHERE AND

HOW MUCH WILL THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. IF THE EURO PANS OUT THE

HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...POSSIBLY EVEN SOUTH OF THE

US 80/I-85 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS IN

THE HEAVIEST QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR...WITH THE 06Z

GFS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT TO GET INTO THESE

SPECIFICS.

OVERALL LOOK FOR MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND

THEN SEE A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER

MIDNIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL OF SANTA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE SNOW

WILL OCCUR AFTER 12Z IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GOING TO UP

MUCH AT ALL ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE RAIN/SNOW IS FLYING OUT

THERE. RIGHT NOW LOOK FOR THE CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW TO OCCUR SOUTH OF

THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY NOON AND THEN SOUTH OF I-85 LATER AFTERNOON

INTO THE EVENING. AGAIN THIS IS DEFINITELY SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER

THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OR EVEN HOURS.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLD AND POSSIBLY EVEN

APPROACH HARD FREEZE CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS

FROM MODELS FOR SUNDAY AND WENT COOLER FOR THE AREA. THIS MAY NOT BE

LOW ENOUGH IF THERE IS ANY SNOW COVER FROM THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH

DRY CONDITIONS.

[Lookout]

First of all, thanks Matthew for your blog, comments on here and updates.

Second, for those with 4,000 questions, go to Matthew's video today and watch it. It will save Lookout and Queen from having to ban you or put you on restriction.

Third, I was about to post about how much energy and dynamics abound in California with this system. Is it possible due to the magnitude of strength that exist, that the GFS and CMC are just simply having issues dealing with the data that the storm is spitting out? And could it be that the EURO is simply digesting what the data from the baloons and airplanes are dishing up?

lol..yeah the very FIRST thing I had to do this morning was give someone a couple days on the bench. I wasn't around last night and maybe that was a good thing, I probably would be fried and wired for sure.

There is literally zero reason right now to trust the gfs. It flip flopping around like a fish out of water is a sure sign it's having problems. As much as I would love for the euro to be right though, it's hard to jump on the most extreme solution. Normally jumping on the most extreme is, also, not the wisest thing to do. But the consistency of the euro is very hard to ignore. The canadian seems like the middle ground but it's also not been terribly consistent..waffling back and forth on the strength/precip. Uk, being the most extreme southern outlier, falls into the camp of being the extreme southern outlier..and taking that is hard to do also given the other guidance being further north. So there are positives and negatives to go along with each medium range model right now.

What I find interesting is that no matter which model you look at (except maybe the uk but i never trust the uk on precip..ever) , the truly only sure place that has a threat of snow on each of the models is...the coast! All of them show the beaches turning white..which is ironic I suppose.

[buckeyefan1]

It looks like CAE might have jumped on board already...this wording is impressive for them

CAE...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER

THE WEEKEND. LATEST GFS IS TRENDING COLDER AND SLOWER...MORE IN

LINE WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH IN

THE EASTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DEVELOP LOW IN THE

GULF WITH CONSENSUS TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA

LATE SATURDAY AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION

TYPE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS UNCERTAINTY BUT A SIGNIFICANT THREAT LATE

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MODELS SOUNDINGS APPEAR

QUITE COLD WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN SNOW GROWTH ZONE SATURDAY

NIGHT. SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. WILL

INCREASE THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST

AND LOWER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE BECOMING

SHALLOW. COLD AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED

WITH TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY

A special thank you to the SE CREW(you know who you are) for the awesome pbp and analysis...this is the reason I this place..and HKY_WX...glad to hear you are safe from your bat experience

[BIG FROSTY]

Posted this over in the other thread.

FWIW -- JB finally on board with snow in the se.

The call here is for the axis of heaviest snows to run closer to I-40 than I-70 for the southern plains to the Carolinas before the turn to the northeast. The White Christmas areal forecast of 50% will verify with snow even further south over the east from the Carolinas to the Miss valley before Christmas is over, but the northeast, if its going to get bombed, will wait till Sunday and Monday.

[bingcrosbyb]

Hmmm. Just saw the Euro. Very exciting stuff, but I would temper folks excitement until some of the other models get in line. The American stragglers always make me nervous. If the Euro is correct though, we are truly talking about a very historic storm for the books.

FYI, for my-backyard, Birmingham area needs temps to drop a little faster than the Euro (in fact, they need to be in line with the NAM). Could make the different between 1/2" or 4".

[tnweathernut]

JB on the i-40 snow train........ i thought i was feeling bad yesterday looking at the UKIE and every other model showing suppression and lack of a phase. This just about does it for me. Never seen him right on his calls for specifics. lol.

[tnweathernut]

For our Nashville area people.......last nights Euro looks to spit out about .19 of QPF in the form of snow.

.34 for Knoxville

.46 for Tricities

[HKY_WX]

I think today you'll see the models either go all in or back off. We're getting close to that magical 3 day mark where they generally star t to lock in on the timing and likelihood of the phasing.

[tnweathernut]

I think today you'll see the models either go all in or back off. We're getting close to that magical 3 day mark where they generally star t to lock in on the timing and likelihood of the phasing.

strongly agree, if not more agreement by 12z, certainly by 0z tonight. I hope the shortwave trends even slower, and stronger when all the data comes ashore

[Lookout]

I think today you'll see the models either go all in or back off. We're getting close to that magical 3 day mark where they generally star t to lock in on the timing and likelihood of the phasing.

Our system finally comes ashore today too, which should go into the 0z runs. I know one thing, southern california is getting absolutely POUNDED by this system right now.

[bingcrosbyb]

12z NAM very similar to 00z run through 24HR.

[HKY_WX]

strongly agree, if not more agreement by 12z, certainly by 0z tonight. I hope the shortwave trends even slower, and stronger when all the data comes ashore

For us to be in the jackpot that is exactly what you would want to see. That southern vort slowing down enough to phase a little earlier. That would setup the trough axis to be more neutral and induce a quicker phase, geography wise.

[DaculaWeather]

Our system finally comes ashore today too, which should go into the 0z runs. I know one thing, southern california is getting absolutely POUNDED by this system right now.

Here's the radar view from there, they really ARE getting pounded.

http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_california_master.php

[CADManager]

strongly agree, if not more agreement by 12z, certainly by 0z tonight. I hope the shortwave trends even slower, and stronger when all the data comes ashore

Wouldn't that cause the storm to be more suppressed?