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October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave

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3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

models north with the big rains tomorrow.   NYC and south may not see that much

12z GFS

gfs_apcpn_neus_10.png

 taking QPF literally is a bold strategy when you're on the east / warm-sector side of a TC undergoing ET transition.  Let see how it goes for them.

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...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY YESTERDAY...

A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA
NY YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 68 SET IN 2007.
A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET AT KENNEDY
NY YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 65 LAST SET IN 2013.
...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ...

A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 68 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 67 SET IN 1941.
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You just know sooner or later this type of extreme heat will land in July-August. 

If October feels like summer then I shudder to think how this pattern would feel in summer.

I feel Tuesday could really over perform if we get full sunshine (85-90). 

Only brief breaks in the extreme heat for Wed-Fri (still AN) and then back into the 80s/70F lows. 

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13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You just know sooner or later this type of extreme heat will land in July-August. 

If October feels like summer then I shudder to think how this pattern would feel in summer.

I feel Tuesday could really over perform if we get full sunshine (85-90). 

Only brief breaks in the extreme heat for Wed-Fri (still AN) and then back into the 80s/70F lows. 

This won’t last forever. Already some signs on the GFS of cool fall weather by Halloween. I just hope it doesn’t change as we get closer.

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45 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You just know sooner or later this type of extreme heat will land in July-August. 

If October feels like summer then I shudder to think how this pattern would feel in summer.

I feel Tuesday could really over perform if we get full sunshine (85-90). 

Only brief breaks in the extreme heat for Wed-Fri (still AN) and then back into the 80s/70F lows. 

Once past tonight lows should be generally in the low 60s (even upper 50s) the rest of the week into the weekend.  Tue looks like the warmest day of the week (low/mid 80s / 83 - 87)  then low 80s possible sat/sun.

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