donsutherland1 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: A torch Oct-Nov is a guaranteed warm winter so I don't understand any calls of cold, snowy winter. Of greater concern would be a very warm October and then a relatively snow-free December. Some data for New York City for the cases where October had a monthly average temperature of 60° or above (keeping in mind sample size limitations): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Last year was as lucky as they come-the few times it got cold, it snowed especially NYC north. Definitely. I've said it before, this fall is starting to feel more like 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Are these warm temps being caused by the hurricanes the keep coming up to our area? Are they somehow bringing warm, humid conditions with them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 fall before our snowiest winters since 1996... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 last year was a positive ao winter but when the ao went negative we did get some snow after or during the negative period... ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 With the exception of 10-11 and 02-03, the quality of the snowstorms has been better during the warmer winters of 05-06, 12-13, 15-16, and 16-17. The only problem for our area is when a warm winter features a raging +EPO like 01-02, 06-07, 07-08, and 11-12. Feb 06 second greatest snowstorm in NYC Feb 13 one of the greatest snowstorms Suffolk and CT Jan 16 greatest NYC snowstorm Mar 17 greatest BGM snowstorm 24hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: With the exception of 10-11, the quality of the snowstorms have been better during the warmer winters of 05-06, 12-13, 15-16, 16-17. Feb 06 second greatest snowstorm in NYC Feb 13 one of the greatest snowstorms Suffolk and CT Jan 16 greatest NYC snowstorm Mar 17 greatest BGM snowstorm Sooner or later the warmth will be too much to overcome and borderline snow events events will be rainstorms. I think our prosperous snow feast will end this year, I see something like a 07-08 setup for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Sooner or later the warmth will be too much to overcome and borderline snow events events will be rainstorms. I think our prosperous snow feast will end this year, I see something like a 07-08 setup for the area. too early to say that-depends on the Nina strength and blocking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: too early to say that-depends on the Nina strength and blocking.... Chances are good that we'll set some sort of noteworthy record this winter. We have a shot at our 3rd warm winter in a row making for a new 3 winter warmth record. There is also the chance we can have another near to above normal snowfall season making for the best 6 year run in over a century. If snowfall is below normal, it will only be the 5th time since 00-01. If cold and snowy somehow we also extend the streak to 6 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 12z Euro back to having the best rains well N and W of the city. Still gives us all an inch or so, but a far cry from the wetter 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 12z Euro back to having the best rains well N and W of the city. Still gives us all an inch or so, but a far cry from the wetter 0z run It will come down to the strength of the WAR. Too strong and best rains will end up north and west. We may not get another opportunity for tropical rains like this anytime soon with such a dominant WAR pattern in place since mid-September. So we really need to maximize this event here or the dry conditions will expand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 58 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will come down to the strength of the WAR. Too strong and best rains will end up north and west. We may not get another opportunity for tropical rains like this anytime soon with such a dominant WAR pattern in place since mid-September. So we really need to maximize this event here or the dry conditions will expand. Your area is much drier and not representative of much of Suffolk County. We had a very wet September, with 4.48", and much of suffolk did well with Jose and got slammed last weekend. Everything by me is green and lush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 2 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Definitely. I've said it before, this fall is starting to feel more like 2015. October wasn't a torch that year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, psv88 said: Your area is much drier and not representative of much of Suffolk County. We had a very wet September, with 4.48", and much of suffolk did well with Jose and got slammed last weekend. Everything by me is green and lush. amazing what a few miles makes--we've had no rain of significance since 9/6. A couple of .05's or even .20's here and there, but not enough to do more than settle the dust. Lawn has not been mowed in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 21 minutes ago, psv88 said: Your area is much drier and not representative of much of Suffolk County. We had a very wet September, with 4.48", and much of suffolk did well with Jose and got slammed last weekend. Everything by me is green and lush. My area here on the South Shore has been very dry similar to the Wantagh station. I also missed out on most of the rains during the August 18th flash flood event which was a north of the Southern State special. It's been a very dry pattern here this extended summer season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Just 0.23" here past 30 days...Summer was wet around these parts however so things don't look too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: October wasn't a torch that year Yeah, but I think colder lows contributed to that. I had mornings in the 40's and even 30's, but it would warm up by the afternoon. I also remember easily getting into the 70's towards the end of the month. As we've seen recently, warm overnight lows are helping to bump up the departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: October wasn't a torch that year Yeah, I wound up 1.3 above I think for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Yeah, but I think colder lows contributed to that. I had mornings in the 40's and even 30's, but it would warm up by the afternoon. I also remember easily getting into the 70's towards the end of the month. As we've seen recently, warm overnight lows are helping to bump up the departures. Yeah it warmed up late, but only one 80 degree day for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 3 hours ago, psv88 said: Your area is much drier and not representative of much of Suffolk County. We had a very wet September, with 4.48", and much of suffolk did well with Jose and got slammed last weekend. Everything by me is green and lush. You’ve been very lucky. The areas of Suffolk I frequent all look pretty toasted for the most part. The grassy median along Nicolls Road is virtually all brown from Sunrise Highway north to NY-347. Areas around the Northern State Parkway don’t look bad though. There will be no trees along the Southern State Parkway at this rate. In some sections the “forest” has thinned out significantly between the recurring droughts and Sandy, Irene, and the March 2010 Nor’easter. They may as well replace the dead and dying trees with pitch pines and shortleaf pines which are both native species and are far more drought tolerant than the species currently present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Only 0.06 here in the last two weeks. 0.52 in the last 30 days (09/07-10/06). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 12z Euro with 1.40 QPF for NYC thru Wed PM 18z GFS with 2(+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 +17 daily departure NYC/EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 3 hours ago, psv88 said: Your area is much drier and not representative of much of Suffolk County. We had a very wet September, with 4.48", and much of suffolk did well with Jose and got slammed last weekend. Everything by me is green and lush. ..true..last saturday i got 1.5" of rain...the rain/hail fest lasted almost an hour.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 hour ago, tim said: ..true..last saturday i got 1.5" of rain...the rain/hail fest lasted almost an hour.. The east end has gotten some good storms this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Sooner or later the warmth will be too much to overcome and borderline snow events events will be rainstorms. I think our prosperous snow feast will end this year, I see something like a 07-08 setup for the area. My worst nightmare. We can't keep slowly crawl upward in averages without at some point in the future having our barely snow events turn into cold rain. At some point the cold when it does come will just not be enough for us. I hope that day is far into the future but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Cfa said: You’ve been very lucky. The areas of Suffolk I frequent all look pretty toasted for the most part. The grassy median along Nicolls Road is virtually all brown from Sunrise Highway north to NY-347. Areas around the Northern State Parkway don’t look bad though. There will be no trees along the Southern State Parkway at this rate. In some sections the “forest” has thinned out significantly between the recurring droughts and Sandy, Irene, and the March 2010 Nor’easter. They may as well replace the dead and dying trees with pitch pines and shortleaf pines which are both native species and are far more drought tolerant than the species currently present. Exactly what I have been thinking. Historically there was a strip of pitch pine forest that extended along the south shore all the way to Brooklyn. Out east it's mostly due to soil composition but this strip has more to do with precipitation. It's been just brutally dry here. And it's nice to have the new Wantagh station to officially prove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 24 minutes ago, Sundog said: My worst nightmare. We can't keep slowly crawl upward in averages without at some point in the future having our barely snow events turn into cold rain. At some point the cold when it does come will just not be enough for us. I hope that day is far into the future but who knows. I think around DC is reaching that threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 41 minutes ago, dWave said: I think around DC is reaching that threshold. Then most of NYC will know what it's like to live in Long Beach most winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Next 8 days still averaging 70degs., or +11degs. Low temp. is averaging 64degs. on its own. Nothing looks normal till the 18th. or later. The next 45-days look forfeited to the heat gods too. When we get to +7degs. for the month, we will be moving toward the warmest Oct. ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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