NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 84 here and very sticky. AC back on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 52 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: This is why all the braying about the dry spell is stupid. This year has been an extreme example to be sure, but early fall in the NE is almost always about long periods of dry (or dryish) weather punctuated by brief events with a tropical connection. Hasn't rained yet. A lot can change b/w now and next Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Hasn't rained yet. A lot can change b/w now and next Monday Eh, It's pretty slam dunk setup. I supposed the rain could end up training more over Western sections, but the majority of the area looks primed for a solid soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Current temp is 85 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 The Euro shows no break in the heat, it keeps recycling the ridge for the entire run. What's the hottest October on record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2017 Author Share Posted October 5, 2017 42 minutes ago, uncle W said: 2017 is in some good company on that list...2017 could be numbero uno when all is said and done...it's been dry and warm lately but that's not unusual for this time of year...in 1922 it was very dry and the temp reached 89 on 10/5... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/60008290/$1900 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/60008309 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1922-10-06/ed-1/seq-9/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1922-10-06/ed-1/seq-24/ Fall (SON) temperatures for our climate division have been rising at +0.8 F per decade since 1980. Maxes have been increasing at +0.7 while mins by +0.9 per decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The Euro shows no break in the heat, it keeps recycling the ridge for the entire run. What's the hottest October on record? October 2013 is up there....amazing (and probably Lucky) that this waited to mid September to develop. Imagine this pattern starting around July 1st.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Oct 2013 Monthly Avg / Dep EWR: 59.6 / +2.9 NYC: 60.2 / +3.3 Oct 2007 Monthly Avg / Dep EWR: 63.5.6 / +6.9 NYC: 63.6 / +6.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Hasn't rained yet. A lot can change b/w now and next Monday And there will be other opportunities to get tropical moisture up here as flow becomes more meridional with the change of seasons. Last two weeks of September is almost always dry w/o help from the tropics. We're relatively stable with the lowering sun angle, and troughiness is climatologically favored in the Rockies. Twas ever thus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: And there will be other opportunities to get tropical moisture up here as flow becomes more meridional with the change of seasons. Last two weeks of September is almost always dry w/o help from the tropics. We're relatively stable with the lowering sun angle, and troughiness is climatologically favored in the Rockies. Twas ever thus. Good luck with that with tropical activity shutting down and the ridge staying over the east. As we get into November I would agree, but October looks to be warm and dry at this juncture-check out the euro weeklies if you have access.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Good luck with that with tropical activity shutting down and the ridge staying over the east. As we get into November I would agree, but October looks to be warm and dry at this juncture-check out the euro weeklies if you have access.... I mean, climatology is climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Might be able to squeeze out a couple hundredths tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Might be able to squeeze out a couple hundredths tonight Nothing measurable streak at 15 days here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Insanely warm 73 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Next 8 days still averaging 71degs., or +10degs. Just a few days near normal at mid-month and again to start Nov.---but first 3 weeks of Nov. looks likes another hell-hole period, right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Slept with the windows open and woke up sweating. Very impressive warmth for October 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 I am rooting for the very wet 0z Euro and GFS to pan out over the drier NAM with Nate's remnants. It would be nice to see this expanding dryness get shaved back. The EPS continues the very strong ridge over the Northeast well into October. So this may be the best rainfall opportunity we get for a while. Tropical moisture has been hard to come by during recent falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am rooting for the very wet 0z Euro and GFS to pan out over the drier NAM with Nate's remnants. It would be nice to see this expanding dryness get shaved back. The EPS continues the very strong ridge over the Northeast well into October. So this may be the best rainfall opportunity we get for a while. Tropical moisture has been hard to come by during recent falls. The 06Z GFS is quite a bit wetter and looks to hold onto the precipitation longer. I am hoping that future runs will actually get even a bit wetter since we can really use the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Potential 70 degree low for me today. Crazy. I hope it holds (it should). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Got down to 52 up here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The 06Z GFS is quite a bit wetter and looks to hold onto the precipitation longer. I am hoping that future runs will actually get even a bit wetter since we can really use the rain. We really need to maximize the rainfall with this since the EPS keeps the ridge over our area well into October. This may be the only tropical remnants opportunity we get with such deep moisture. The October average around here is 4.40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days still averaging 71degs., or +10degs. Just a few days near normal at mid-month and again to start Nov.---but first 3 weeks of Nov. looks likes another hell-hole period, right now. A torch Oct-Nov is a guaranteed warm winter so I don't understand any calls of cold, snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Low of 70 at LGA and 68 in the park. 63 here. Sultry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 On Sunday and Monday, record highest minimum temperatures for a number of local locations will likely be challenged and possibly broken. The following are the forecasts from the 10/6 0z GFS MOS: Bridgeport: 10/8 67° (record: 72°, 2005) 10/9 69° (record: 68°, 1990) Islip: 10/8 65° (record: 72°, 2005) 10/9 66° (record: 69°, 1990) New York City: …Central Park: 10/8: 69° (record: 67°, 2007) 10/9: 69° (record: 68°, 1990) …JFK: 10/8: 66° (record: 66°, 2007) 10/9: 68° (record: 68°, 1959) …LGA: 10/8: 70° (record: 70°, 1941) 10/9: 69° (record: 69°, 1990) Newark: 10/8: 70° (record: 66°, 2007) 10/9: 74° (record: 69°, 1990) White Plains: 10/8: 66° (record: 62°, 2007) 10/9: 67° (record: 67°, 1990) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: A torch Oct-Nov is a guaranteed warm winter so I don't understand any calls of cold, snowy winter. Yeah, but in recent years we've still managed to get snowstorms in between the warmer periods. 2016 was a good example, as was last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 1 hour ago, JerseyWx said: Yeah, but in recent years we've still managed to get snowstorms in between the warmer periods. 2016 was a good example, as was last March. Last year was as lucky as they come-the few times it got cold, it snowed especially NYC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Had some rain last night and even a brief downpour. The ground really needed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Updated track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 more record dewpoints Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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