IrishRob17 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 23 minutes ago, gravitylover said: If I go out before ~11am it's sweats over shorts maybe with a light jacket or something then strip the layers in the afternoon and put them back on as the sun drops. When it's this dry the air heats and cools quickly. Speaking of dry - It's getting desperate in the forests around here. Crunchy and dusty Surprisingly most of the reservoirs are bank full though. It depends on what I'm doing, if I'm just sitting outside then sure. If I'm moving or doing yard work I still don't have a need for sweats. As for the dryness, I mentioned yesterday in the NW thread that I am hard pressed to find a drier 4 week period than the current one in the records for IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Can't remember the year, but maybe October 2014? Had .25 inch of rain for the whole month...this is right up there. Lots of dry autumns the last 5 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Can't remember the year, but maybe October 2014? Had .25 inch of rain for the whole month...this is right up there. Lots of dry autumns the last 5 years I measured 3.19" that month, that was some cutoff between us. Edit: Oct 2013 I measured 1.29", maybe that is the month you are thinking of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I measured 3.19" that month, that was some cutoff between us. Edit: Oct 2013 I measured 1.29", maybe that is the month you are thinking of. Most likely. I was not sure of the exact year, but it could have been 2013. From 9/6/17 to today, 10/4/17, we've had about .25 here for that 30 day stretch coupled with the hot/dry/low humidity air, it's looking pretty bad around here. No relief in sight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Most likely. I was not sure of the exact year, but it could have been 2013. From 9/6/17 to today, 10/4/17, we've had about .25 here for that 30 day stretch coupled with the hot/dry/low humidity air, it's looking pretty bad around here. No relief in sight... Yeah, this stretch has been drier that that stretch in 2013, albeit by a few hundredths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 I imagine that we're in line for a robust fall brush fire season. Lots of rain earlier in the summer, then a very dry late summer / early fall. Once we get some days with brisk NW winds, we could end up with a frisk day in the Meadowlands or out on the Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 ECM is 2.35 Sat - Wed / GFS : 1.40 same period, most falls Tue into Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 69 now. What is the average high for today? Everything is lush around here after this weekends rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 nothing like hearing cicadas in october Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: 69 now. What is the average high for today? Everything is lush around here after this weekends rain. isp's average is 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: isp's average is 67 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2017 Author Share Posted October 4, 2017 CNJ closing in on a 40 degree temperature rise today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 the euro has an impressive wind event for us from the remnants of nate. very little rain though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Gotta love how the Euro and Gfs are hundreds of miles apart with Nate at days 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the LLJ actually increases coming through the area due to the strong trough phase and ET this run. Wind gusts are 70 + for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 12z ECm now with 0.58 QPF thru D10 in NYC. Areas west of the city 1 - 2 inches from Nate's remnants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Next 8 days averaging an astounding 72degs., or +10 to +11 degrees. This is normal for the first days of September. By mid-Oct., when a return to normal or less should occur, the 850mb. temperature should be somewhat below its norm of +7C for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 48 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging an astounding 72degs., or +10 to +11 degrees. This is normal for the first days of September. By mid-Oct., when a return to normal or less should occur, the 850mb. temperature should be somewhat below its norm of +7C for that period. This month will be a complete furnace, it could rival Dec 2015 in extremes. I wouldn't be shocked to see spots put up a +9 or better this month. I also expect another 90+ reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Late August-early September-type morning (68°): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2017 Author Share Posted October 5, 2017 Newark getting closer to the record for the most 80 degree days after 9/15 last tied in 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 I still say mid 80s. If we don’t get a 90 degree reading this week, I think we are done until the spring/summer. Cooler readings coming and even lower averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Late August-early September-type morning (68°): Beautiful pic Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 I think you need to read b/w the lines a little bit on the Euro. Regardless what it shows verbatim that's going to be a lot of rain for pretty much the entire NE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 76 and glorious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 latest GFS gives us a fair amount of rain Sunday night into Monday as the remnant tropical storm/cane turns NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 We're in a good spot to receive the remnants of Nate late Sunday into early next week as the circulation merges with a frontal boundary moving through the lakes. PWAT's approach 2.50" as abundant tropical moisture surges Northeastward. I like a widespread 2-3" with locally higher amounts, especially over the higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 This is why all the braying about the dry spell is stupid. This year has been an extreme example to be sure, but early fall in the NE is almost always about long periods of dry (or dryish) weather punctuated by brief events with a tropical connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Newark getting closer to the record for the most 80 degree days after 9/15 last tied in 2007. 2017 is in some good company on that list...2017 could be numbero uno when all is said and done...it's been dry and warm lately but that's not unusual for this time of year...in 1922 it was very dry and the temp reached 89 on 10/5... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/60008290/$1900 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/60008309 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1922-10-06/ed-1/seq-9/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1922-10-06/ed-1/seq-24/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2017 Author Share Posted October 5, 2017 44 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: This is why all the braying about the dry spell is stupid. This year has been an extreme example to be sure, but early fall in the NE is almost always about long periods of dry (or dryish) weather punctuated by brief events with a tropical connection. 2013-2017 was one of the driest 5 year September streaks we had around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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