Big Jims Videos Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Did a fall foliage story at Hopatcong State Park today where we are about a week away from peak and we notice the muted colors. Spectacular Sunday afternoon feels more like late summer than late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Up to 77 degrees here. Just another splendid day making up for some miserable August weekends. Still believe 2017 will follow in 2007 and 2013 steps and feature a cooler than normal Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2017 Author Share Posted October 22, 2017 WAR pattern continues to hold on while the coldest departures remain to our south and west. The SST's continue to run much above normal with mid 60's at the beach today instead of the usual upper 50's for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: WAR pattern continues to hold on while the coldest departures remain to our south and west. The SST's continue to run much above normal with mid 60's at the beach today instead of the usual upper 50's for this time of year. The super warm SSTs along and off the east coast are causing a positive feedback loop, which is sustaining the very persistent WAR. It has been a staple ever since the beginning of September and shows no signs of letting up in the foreseeable future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The super warm SSTs along and off the east coast are causing a positive feedback loop, which is sustaining the very persistent WAR/SE ridge. It has been a staple ever since the beginning of September and shows no signs of letting up in the foreseeable future... Classic Niña look too, no? Even if we get some appreciable Atlantic blocking this year, I'm increasingly becoming concerned that we are going to need some significant PAC PNA/EPO to pare back the SE ridge. The fact that our Niña seems east-based and relatively weak offers some hope though. Next few weeks will be telling, in my (amateur) opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Classic Niña look too, no? Even if we get some appreciable Atlantic blocking this year, I'm increasingly becoming concerned that we are going to need some significant PAC PNA/EPO to pare back the SE ridge. The fact that our Niña seems east-based and relatively weak offers some hope though. Next few weeks will be telling, in my (amateur) opinion. The SE ridge is very common to La Nina’s, yes. As of right now, the Niña is not very weak. Region 3.4 has dropped like a rock to below -1.0C. That aside, we are seeing pure, classic La Niña tropical convective forcing with this event. Last year’s Niña had a mix of both Niño and Niña forcing at times. As far as getting a persistent, predominant +PNA circulation this winter with a healthy La Niña in place, that would be extremely unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: WAR pattern continues to hold on while the coldest departures remain to our south and west. The SST's continue to run much above normal with mid 60's at the beach today instead of the usual upper 50's for this time of year. 17 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The super warm SSTs along and off the east coast are causing a positive feedback loop, which is sustaining the very persistent WAR. It has been a staple ever since the beginning of September and shows no signs of letting up in the foreseeable future... 7 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Classic Niña look too, no? Even if we get some appreciable Atlantic blocking this year, I'm increasingly becoming concerned that we are going to need some significant PAC PNA/EPO to pare back the SE ridge. The fact that our Niña seems east-based and relatively weak offers some hope though. Next few weeks will be telling, in my (amateur) opinion. I am wondering if the WAR was what Larry Cosgrove meant when he said in his newsletter last night that more cold could be centered over the Great lakes versus the Eastern Seaboard and why cold and snow lovers could be somewhat disappointed again this winter but it will still be less "non-wintry" then the last couple of winters. Still a bit early to know for sure what impact the WAR could have on our winter, right now I am more concerned on it becoming more active storm wise which it looks like is in the process of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I am wondering if the WAR was what Larry Cosgrove meant when he said in his newsletter last night that more cold could be centered over the Great lakes versus the Eastern Seaboard and why cold and snow lovers could be somewhat disappointed again this winter but it will still be less "non-wintry" then the last couple of winters. Still a bit early to know for sure what impact the WAR could have on our winter, right now I am more concerned on it becoming more active storm wise which it looks like is in the process of happening. I didn’t read Larry’s newsletter yet but from what you describe, yes, that would be my guess (WAR) as to what he was talking about, also possibly the La Niña and dropping PDO as well. A strong WAR would argue for more lakes cutters and inland/inside runners and the cold being centered west of the Appalachians, over the Great Lakes/Midwest/northern Plains/northern Rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 12z ECM now with 4.43 total QPF thru D10 at NYC 1.76 Tue (10/24) - Wed (10/26) 2.67 then Sun - Wed (10/29 - 11/1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2017 Author Share Posted October 22, 2017 54 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The super warm SSTs along and off the east coast are causing a positive feedback loop, which is sustaining the very persistent WAR. It has been a staple ever since the beginning of September and shows no signs of letting up in the foreseeable future... It's a very impressive stripe of near record SST's for this time of year right across the Atlantic to Spain. Ophelia took advantage of these SST's and really pounded Ireland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Wet pattern with cool centered over MW/GL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 72/48 here today...Normals are 63/44. Rain will be welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 12z ECM now with 4.43 total QPF thru D10 at NYC 1.76 Tue (10/24) - Wed (10/26) 2.67 then Sun - Wed (10/29 - 11/1) Another increase. FWIW the 18z NAM is quite wet for the area Tues/Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 At this point I'm used to the warmth but just give me a good active pattern, we weren't going to see snow anyway even if there was a strong trough in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Meh we would be slightly above normal with that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Damn. So nothing seeps east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 59 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Damn. So nothing seeps east? Yes but not right away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 With today's 76°-57° split and the latest MOS guidance, the implied probability that October 2017 will become the warmest October on record has increased to about 2-in-3. The implied probability that October 2017 will become the first October to register a monthly mean temperature of 64° or above has increased to about 3-in-5. On account of the warm sunshine, large amounts of Monarchs were continuing to migrate southward across the New York area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 10/22: TEB: 79 New Brunswick: 78 NYC: 76 PhL: 76 LGA: 76 TTN: 75 EWR: 75 ACY: 74 ISP: 74 JFK: 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Next 8 days average down to just 60degs., or +6degs. We'll be +7.1degs by the last day of month at this rate. We will have a surplus of 12 degrees to play with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2017 Author Share Posted October 23, 2017 Top 3 warmest October around the area through the 22nd. EWR...#3...NYC...#2...LGA...#2...JFK...#3...ISP...#3....BDR...#2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 70/65, steamy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 At 3 pm, TEB was reporting an 82° reading. That figure is suspect, as it is notably warmer than the temperature at any other nearby location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Things look good for us to set the record. We'll put some substantial departures today & tomorrow and no BN days until maybe Oct 29-30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Yes, JFK has 25mph winds tomorrow, but for the 30th it has 30mph winds! Plume chart has 2.2" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2017 Author Share Posted October 23, 2017 The latest EPS weeklies feature an Alaskan ridge and flat Western Atlantic and SE ridge pattern for early November. Colder than normal temperatures for the Rockies to the Great Lakes and a narrow stripe of above normal temps along the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: At 3 pm, TEB was reporting an 82° reading. That figure is suspect, as it is notably warmer than the temperature at any other nearby location. I noticed that last week when they were 5 degrees higher than all other sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 10/23: TEB: 87* (sensor malfunction) PHL: 77 New Brunswick: 76 ACY: 75 EWR: 75 LGA: 75 TTN: 74 NYC: 74 ISP: 73 JFK: 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 GFS shift tough to the EC to open Nov and ECM has WAR resistance. GFS does rebuild heights beyond this in the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 69 / 66 warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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