ag3 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Another torch today. Approaching 80 degrees here. Monthly departures are +7 to +8 areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 80 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Up to 78 here, 80 looks reachable. Tremendous weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 00z ECM with 2.30 inches QPF at nyc between Tue and Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 80 at Newark, 76 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Current temp is 78 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2017 Author Share Posted October 21, 2017 This big diurnal temperature range with very low humidity is more common for the Western US. Parts of NJ that dipped into the upper 30's this morning are around 80. That's how anomalous all this high pressure at the surface and aloft has been here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 A 39 degrees swing for me today from this morning, on the way back down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 55 for the low here and got up to 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 I know I say it’s drying out here all the time but it’s getting ridiculous. Trees are going to straight to brown. We need a pattern change (full scale) asap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 12z 10/21 ECM with 1.17 total QPF at NYC thru Day 10 with most of that 0.93 falling bewteen Tue and Thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: A 39 degrees swing for me today from this morning, on the way back down now. Close here - 38F diurnal. Went from 40 to 78 today, and now down to 55F already. More akin to the interior West (a place like Grand Canyon at 6,000ft comes to mind - often in the 30s/40s by night and near 80 by day in the warm season). We should be well down into the 40s again tonight with the sfc ridge overhead and concomitant low dew points. The foliage is actually brightening up quite a bit here now, especially on the maples, due to these cold nights/warm sunny days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 12z 10/21 ECM with 1.17 total QPF at NYC thru Day 10 with most of that 0.93 falling bewteen Tue and Thu. Shocker, as the event draws closer precipitation amounts go down. This has been the trend for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 25 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Shocker, as the event draws closer precipitation amounts go down. This has been the trend for months. i never have high hopes for heavy amounts from squall lines in this area. i do think we'll get a strong line but not enough for 1" + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 10/21 EWR: 81 TEB: 81 New Brunswick: 79 LGA: 79 PHL: 79 NYC: 78 TTN: 77 ISP: 76 ACY: 76 JFK: 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 On 9/30/2017 at 1:25 PM, uncle W said: some October stats for NYC...... decade....Ave.......high..low......Ave.max/min...max...min......Rainfall 1870's.....55.5.......60.3....50.6...........................................3.55" 1880's.....53.9.......58.8....48.6......77.0...34.1......87...29......3.17" 1890's.....55.5.......59.5....52.5......77.4...37.3......87...34......3.59" 1900's.....57.2.......61.3....52.7......77.1...37.5......82...32......4.39" 1910's.....57.9.......59.4....53.0......80.1...37.1......87...32......4.41" 1920's.....56.8.......61.1....50.6......81.4...35.3......90...29......3.39" 1930's.....57.4.......61.3....54.5......81.2...36.3......91...28......3.22" 1940's.....58.7.......63.6....53.8......84.9...37.8......94...30......2.42" 1950's.....58.6.......61.7....55.5......83.6...38.0......88...33......3.68" 1960's.....58.2.......61.8....55.0......82.2...35.3......86...31......2.45" 1970's.....56.9.......62.7....52.9......78.1...35.7......88...29......3.88" 1980's.....57.0.......61.8....52.8......78.5...37.2......84...31......4.01" 1990's.....57.7.......61.9....54.5......79.1...38.8......86...34......3.85" 2000's.....57.0.......63.6....55.0......79.1...38.1......87...36......5.23" 2010's.....58.5.......60.2....57.1......80.4...38.3......86...33......4.02" 1870--- 2009.......56.8..............................80.0...36.8......................3.66" 1980--- 2009.......57.2...............................78.9...38.0......................4.36" Warmest... 63.6 in 1947 63.6 in 2007 63.1 in 1949 62.7 in 1971 61.9 in 1990 Coolest... 48.6 in 1888 49.7 in 1889 50.6 in 1925 50.6 in 1876 50.9 in 1869 wettest"... 16.73 in 2005 13.31 in 1903 12.97 in 1913 09.00 in 1927 08.63 in 1983 driest... 0.14 in 1963 0.28 in 1924 0.36 in 2013 0.43 in 1879 0.59 in 1892 0.66 in 2001 0.66 in 1909 Snowiest"... 2.9 in 2011 0.8 in 1925 0.5 in 1876 0.5 in 1952 Hottest max.. 94 in 1941 10/5 91 in 1939 10/10 90 in 1927 10/2 90 in 1941 10/6 90 in 1938 10/17 89 in 1922 10/5 Coolest monthly max... 66 in 1888 70 in 1894 70 in 1895 70 in 1977 71 in 1981 Coldest min... 28 in 1936 10/27 29 in 1879 10/25 29 in 1976 10/27 29 in 1976 10/28 29 in 1925 10/31 29 in 1887 10/31 warmest monthly min... 45 in 1946 45 in 1971 44 in 2004 43 in 1994 43 in 1927 Octobers with a temp. 32 or lower... 1876...32 1879...29 1877...29 1889...32 1904...32 1917...32 1925...29 1928...32 1933...32 1936...28 1940...30 1965...32 1969...31 1972...32 1974...31 1975...31 1976...29 1988...31 most 32 or lower days... 1974...3 1925...3 1976...2 1969...2 1940...2 1936...2 1933...2 1887...2 1879...2 .......................................................................... NYC looks a lock for top 4 Warmest... 63.6 in 1947 63.6 in 2007 63.1 in 1949 62.7 in 1971 61.9 in 1990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Made it to 78 here Saturday which was a record for the date...am low of 47. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Next 8 days still averaging 64degs., or +10degs. If this is right we will be +8.1degs. by the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 That's fine, but it's not because the majority of the country is just flooded with warm air. Model guidance is heavily favoring an evolution to a dual blocking +pna pattern over the next week. It is initially centered more over the Midwest and lakes but shifts east. So those warm numbers will occur out ahead of the large full latitude trough slowly transitioning east, but the times they are a changing and by months end into early November it's a shock change into late fall/early winter in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: That's fine, but it's not because the majority of the country is just flooded with warm air Isn’t it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 50 minutes ago, Snowshack said: Isn’t it? Impressive to post an image that proves the opposite of what you're trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 With yet another morning of warm sunshine and readings in the lower 60s by mid-morning, the Monarch migration remained underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 The advertised upcoming pattern is really not something we see often. The central part of the country is going to have a serious cold blast, while we stay warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 10/22 00Z ECM has 3.26 QPF total thru D10 1/2 of that falls Tue/Wed (10/24 - 10/25) and the other half falls 10/30-10/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 8 hours ago, doncat said: Made it to 78 here Saturday which was a record for the date...am low of 47. 40F to 78F yesterday, and down to 41F this morning. 37-38 degree diurnal ranges, very impressive for this part of the country. Foliage is finally becoming more lurid as a result here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 2007 Oct MOnhtly LGA: 65.5 (+7.4) PHL: 64.5 (+7.0) NYC: 63.6 (+6.7) EWR: 63.5 (+6.9) JFK: 63.0 (+5.9) TTN: 62.4 (+7.8) ISP: 61.1 (+6.9) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 29 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 10/22 00Z ECM has 3.26 QPF total thru D10 1/2 of that falls Tue/Wed (10/24 - 10/25) and the other half falls 10/30-10/31 Nice to see the Euro bump precipitation amounts back up, curious to see what the 12z runs do today. The GFS has also increased amounts as well especially for Tues/Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Nice to see the Euro bump precipitation amounts back up, curious to see what the 12z runs do today. The GFS has also increased amounts as well especially for Tues/Wed. Just a matter of time for the EC which will be sandwiched between the deep trough over the Midwest and WAR pushing up along the EC. We'll see how much we can cash in. Halloween 9 days out but looks unsettled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 5 hours ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: That's fine, but it's not because the majority of the country is just flooded with warm air. Model guidance is heavily favoring an evolution to a dual blocking +pna pattern over the next week. It is initially centered more over the Midwest and lakes but shifts east. So those warm numbers will occur out ahead of the large full latitude trough slowly transitioning east, but the times they are a changing and by months end into early November it's a shock change into late fall/early winter in the east. Tbh it's more of a transient change to normal than anything. I think our torch is locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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