LurkerBoy Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Not yet. It's currently the 4th warmest October through the 19th with a mean temperature of 65.8°. If the mean temperature for the October 20-31 period is 60.2°, October 2017 would surpass October 1947's and 2007's monthly record high mean temperature of 63.6°, Is that likely to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Is that likely to happen? There's a lot of guidance suggesting it could happen. Taking into consideration uncertainty and modeling error, even as the outcome is not yet assured, it's plausible. Taking the ECMWF through the 30th and then assuming the 31st finished with a normal daily mean temperature, the monthly mean would wind up near 64°. So, we'll see what happens. If this month winds up the warmest October on record, the outcome will represent another case where persistent warmth rather than extreme warmth during a short period of time was the driving factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 3 hours ago, jfklganyc said: An astounding 14 degree swing this morning from Hastings on Hudson to Queens. Normal swing is 7. Large swing is 10. 14 degrees averages more than 1 degree per mile (but in reality there is a line around Van Cortland Park). 50 vs 64 I noticed a bigger than usual spread as well. I go a shorter distance starting in the Bx so the temp contrast is really compressed. Most of the temp change happens in a short span around the Cross County Pkwy. South of it is basically Bx lite. North of it, rapid temp drop begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 The MJO was in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 3.479 on October 18. That is a new October record for Phase 5. 2017 set the record on October 16 with an amplitude of 3.421. Similar extreme events have seen the seasonal winter temperature anomaly in the eastern U.S. (including the Midwest) wind up warmer than normal if November was warmer than normal or colder than normal if November was colder than normal. Aside from a possible cold shot during the first half of November from the impact of Lan's recurvature on the jet stream, odds lean toward a warmer than normal November right now. It should also be noted that Lan does not appear likely to rival Nuri's (2014) intensity as it recurves and passes north of the Aleutian Islands in the extended range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 Most stations around the region are currently the 3rd warmest October on record through the 19th. The perma-ridge continues to dominate our pattern. EWR...#3...NYC...#5....LGA...#3...JFK...#3...ISP...#3...BDR...#3...POU...#3...PHL...#3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Based on guidance we should surpass those records, don't see much of a cool down. (.61)(65.8) + (.39)(x) = 63.7 Solving for x gives 60.0 Remainder of month (12 days) must average 60 degs. to end up beating the 63.6. Next 8 look to average 64 already. 19/31 = .61 (31-19)/31 =.39 add 0.1 to current record. A simple weighted average problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Based on long term guidance October should end near normal and November should begin above normal temperature wise as the Southeast ridge reloads. If we can hold onto these 60's and 70's right through Thanksgiving that would be awesome. I find it amazing that it's October 20th and I've needed to wear long pants outside of work once so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 Low topped squall line potential for Tuesday could mix down stronger winds from aloft. ...DISCUSSION... Models suggest that an amplification within the mid-latitude westerlies, across the eastern Pacific into western North America by late this weekend, will translate eastward during the early to middle portion of next week. This may occur in the form of a significant digging upper trough to the lee of ridging centered near the Pacific coast, from the upper Mississippi Valley into much of the eastern U.S. by late next Wednesday. When and just how this feature consolidates with another perturbation initially over the lower Mississippi Valley remains unclear, but strong surface cyclogenesis appears at least a possibility across parts of upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region. If this is realized, it is possible that any associated convective development embedded within potentially strong deep layer mean wind fields could aid downward transfer of this momentum to the surface, with a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. At the present time, any such activity seems most probable Tuesday, east of the lower Great Lakes region into portions of New England, and/or across parts of the Mid Atlantic Coast region. It is unclear if thermodynamic profiles will be supportive of lightning with this convection, which may be mostly low-topped in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 71 DP 23 at my station. Quite dry. SPS for Tri-state area for fire danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: Low topped squall line potential for Tuesday could mix down stronger winds from aloft. ...DISCUSSION... Models suggest that an amplification within the mid-latitude westerlies, across the eastern Pacific into western North America by late this weekend, will translate eastward during the early to middle portion of next week. This may occur in the form of a significant digging upper trough to the lee of ridging centered near the Pacific coast, from the upper Mississippi Valley into much of the eastern U.S. by late next Wednesday. When and just how this feature consolidates with another perturbation initially over the lower Mississippi Valley remains unclear, but strong surface cyclogenesis appears at least a possibility across parts of upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region. If this is realized, it is possible that any associated convective development embedded within potentially strong deep layer mean wind fields could aid downward transfer of this momentum to the surface, with a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. At the present time, any such activity seems most probable Tuesday, east of the lower Great Lakes region into portions of New England, and/or across parts of the Mid Atlantic Coast region. It is unclear if thermodynamic profiles will be supportive of lightning with this convection, which may be mostly low-topped in nature. the modeled soundings are pretty impressive for a southerly flow event. those much above normal SST's are a big factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Based on long term guidance October should end near normal and November should begin above normal temperature wise as the Southeast ridge reloads. If we can hold onto these 60's and 70's right through Thanksgiving that would be awesome. I find it amazing that it's October 20th and I've needed to wear long pants outside of work once so far. Just as long as it rains, it's been so dry lately that fire dangers are growing. I think at some point we have to come to grips that our baseline temp averages have risen significantly since the last major Nino event. You don't keep setting records and have multiple record high months in a 2 year period unless there's a major baseline shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: the modeled soundings are pretty impressive for a southerly flow event. those much above normal SST's are a big factor Yeah, mid 60's SST's instead of the normal upper 50's for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 4 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Based on long term guidance October should end near normal and November should begin above normal temperature wise as the Southeast ridge reloads. If we can hold onto these 60's and 70's right through Thanksgiving that would be awesome. I find it amazing that it's October 20th and I've needed to wear long pants outside of work once so far. I agree. Loving it. My tomato plants are producing like it's still August. I have put a jacket on a maybe a handful of times the whole fall while going out in the evening. Keep this for another month and then let winter hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 38 minutes ago, tdp146 said: I agree. Loving it. My tomato plants are producing like it's still August. I have put a jacket on a maybe a handful of times the whole fall while going out in the evening. Keep this for another month and then let winter hit. Winter doesn't just hit after a record warm Oct-Nov, look what happened after Oct 2007. If you want a snowy winter then it greatly helps if November is BN since it's often a precursor to the winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Winter doesn't just hit after a record warm Oct-Nov, look what happened after Oct 2007. If you want a snowy winter then it greatly helps if November is BN since it's often a precursor to the winter season. It sure can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 That big ridge east of New England will keep the colder departures to our SW for the rest of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: That big ridge east of New England will keep the colder departures to our SW for the rest of October. i wish the green colors started at -8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 28 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i wish the green colors started at -8 Yeah, that color scale exaggerates the cold below -4 due to the color change from blue to green It should be a continuation of the blue shades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Winter doesn't just hit after a record warm Oct-Nov, look what happened after Oct 2007. If you want a snowy winter then it greatly helps if November is BN since it's often a precursor to the winter season. What happens in December will likely provide strong insight. Since 1869-70, NYC had seen 17 cases when October had a mean temperature of 60° or above and November had a mean temperature of 45° or above (one of which was 2007). Mean snowfall for the following winter was 21.6" (median: 18.1"). 53% of those winters had less than 20" snow; 41% had less than 15" snow; 47% had 20" or more snow; 24% had 30" or more snow. The subset that saw less than 4" snowfall in December wound up with a mean seasonal total of 15.2" (median: 11.9"). 73% of those winters had less than 20" snowfall and 64% less than 15". The most recent winter in that group was 2007-08 with 11.9" snow. The subset that saw 4" or more snowfall in December wound up with a mean seasonal total of 33.2" (median: 27.6"). 83% of those winters saw 20" or more snow and 50% saw 30" or more snowfall. The most recent winter in that group was 2013-14 with 57.4" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 With today’s 73°-57° temperature range in Central Park, that station has a mean monthly temperature of 65.8°. If one incorporates the MOS MEX values and operational GFS forecast for the remainder of the month (with errors as high as 10° per day, which are unlikely in the near-term), there would be an implied probability of 51% for October 2017's surpassing Octobers 1947 and 2007 as the warmest on record. Implied probabilities for select October monthly mean temperatures are below: 61°: 88% 62°: 76% 63°: 62% 64°: 45% 65°: 29% Taking into consideration the 12z ECMWF, a monthly mean temperature of around 64° remains plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Next 8 days still averaging 64degs. or +9degs. Best hope now for a BN 8 day span is inside the 11/15 to 11/25 timeframe. Next 45 still +3 or +4degs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 For all the doom and gloom 10 miles south, I’m once again looking at a pair of 4s this morning at 730am. 44 in Hastings on Hudson This will be the third day of 30 degree swings between highs and lows. More akin to the Mountain West than Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Since heat/dryness started 9/13, 38 days, I make it +7.7degs and 1.00" precip. Just 4 below normal days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Impressive diurnal ranges with the low dew points and strong sfc ridge over head. 72F yesterday and 40F this morning here; 32 degree fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 57 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Impressive diurnal ranges with the low dew points and strong sfc ridge over head. 72F yesterday and 40F this morning here; 32 degree fall. 74 yesterday and down to 40 this morning IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 44 this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Holycrap it's nice out, 66 and clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 19 hours ago, forkyfork said: i wish the green colors started at -8 Yes they are definitely misleading. People look at the maps and equate green with the brown on the other side of the scale. I took a course on Arcgis for my geology degree and I would consider this color scheme a no no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 What a difference being out of the UHI makes. Upper 50s in the Bronx, but I'm back in PA this weekend and we fell all the way to 40 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 One last shot at 80 today for ewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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