donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 38° at sunrise, along with unusually great visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: October 20-31st has been prime time for storms here during the 2000's. We seem to usually get some great amplitude to the pattern around this time. Looks like this MJO is near record levels for this time of year. Meaning? sorry just new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2017 Author Share Posted October 17, 2017 25 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Meaning? sorry just new That the pattern is going to get very amplified day 6-10 with the chance for our first widespread heavy rain and wind event in a while. The last time that many of us had an inch or more of rain was the beginning of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Should we believe the 8" precip. of the OZ GFS or the no inches of the 06Z. She loves me---she loves me not. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 low 43 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 CFS back to +4degs. on next 45 days. This model should be put in chains and locked in a dungeon! Curses, foiled again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Yesterday saw the temperature fall below 50° for the first time this fall in Central Park. 2017 is only the fourth year on record that the first sub-50° reading occurred so late in the season. The other three years are: 1955: October 16 1995: October 16 2005: October 20 In addition, on October 15, the MJO was in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 3.293. That was the 3rd highest figure on record for October in Phase 5. Only October 4, 1979 (Amplitude: 3.311) and October 1, 1979 (Amplitude: 3.298) had a higher amplitude. The highest October amplitude on record occurred during Phase 1 of the MJO on October 18, 2011 (3.602). The following years saw the MJO reach amplitudes of 2.000 or above during Phase 5 in October: 1979, 1988, 1998, 2006, 2008, and 2010. Typically November’s temperature anomalies in the East (from the MJO sample and late sub-50° sample) provided a good idea of the predominant temperature anomalies during meteorological winter in the East. Therefore, as goes November in the East, so might the winter go, so to speak when it comes to temperature anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Don, it will be interesting to see how things turn out. Seasonal guidance seems to be keying in on those near record SST's east of New England for November. That's where most of the guidance shifts the mean ridge position to. Should that scenario verify, November would probably finish with above normal temperatures here. \ So far, it looks like a warmer than normal November could be on tap. A wildcard might be concern the possibility of a strong Pacific typhoon's recurvature. Much as happened with Nuri (2014), there might be the risk of a strong shot of cold sometime in the first half of November. For now, that's highly speculative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 31° for a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 46.7 was my min this morning. First 40’s. My previous lowest minimum was 52.7 back on 10/01. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Current temp is 58 after a low of 41 overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 The pattern change to end the month is looking pretty legit now. I still don't know if it's transient or not but given our tendency to lock in patterns for extended periods, it could very well last into November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Today looks to be the only the 2nd below normal day of this month in the Park. The first being Oct 1. Yesterday was slightly above norm with the midnight high temp. Today will end 15 straight above normal days. Meanwhile its still a wrap for Orange County... Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 1054 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 ...The growing season has come to an end across Orange County in Southeastern New York... Widespread freezing temperatures occurred this morning across Orange County, bringing an end to the growing season. Since the growing season has come to an end, it means that Frost Advisories and/or Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings will not be issued again until the start of the growing season during Spring of 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 16 minutes ago, dWave said: Today looks to be the only the 2nd below normal day of this month in the Park. The first being Oct 1. Yesterday was slightly above norm with the midnight high temp. Today will end 15 straight above normal days. Meanwhile its still a wrap for Orange County... Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 1054 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 ...The growing season has come to an end across Orange County in Southeastern New York... Widespread freezing temperatures occurred this morning across Orange County, bringing an end to the growing season. Since the growing season has come to an end, it means that Frost Advisories and/or Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings will not be issued again until the start of the growing season during Spring of 2018. Wow, that's an abrupt end to the growing season after such a warm start. I think the season will hold on here until at least November, which is quite typical anyway. 34 last night, hard frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 37 this morning, never decoupled. Expecting colder tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 the lantana is alive therefore no frost in springfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: So far, it looks like a warmer than normal November could be on tap. A wildcard might be concern the possibility of a strong Pacific typhoon's recurvature. Much as happened with Nuri (2014), there might be the risk of a strong shot of cold sometime in the first half of November. For now, that's highly speculative. Don, I was thinking about this yesterday when I saw the forecast for Lam. Do late-season storms of Nuri's caliber have a long-term, seasonal effect on the pattern and possibly our sensible weather? For example, did Nuri contribute in any substantial way to the wonderful EPO-driven tundra we experienced in the 2014-15 winter, or can we only say with confidence that it drove the November 2014 cold shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 14 hours ago, snywx said: 31° for a low 8 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Next week you'll go below freezing in my opinion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 19 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Yesterday saw the temperature fall below 50° for the first time this fall in Central Park. 2017 is only the fourth year on record that the first sub-50° reading occurred so late in the season. The other three years are: 1955: October 16 1995: October 16 2005: October 20 In addition, on October 15, the MJO was in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 3.293. That was the 3rd highest figure on record for October in Phase 5. Only October 4, 1979 (Amplitude: 3.311) and October 1, 1979 (Amplitude: 3.298) had a higher amplitude. The highest October amplitude on record occurred during Phase 1 of the MJO on October 18, 2011 (3.602). The following years saw the MJO reach amplitudes of 2.000 or above during Phase 5 in October: 1979, 1988, 1998, 2006, 2008, and 2010. Typically November’s temperature anomalies in the East (from the MJO sample and late sub-50° sample) provided a good idea of the predominant temperature anomalies during meteorological winter in the East. Therefore, as goes November in the East, so might the winter go, so to speak when it comes to temperature anomalies. Interesting as all three of those Octobers were followed by big snow storms that winter in NYC. March 1956 January 1996 February 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 49 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Next 8 days averaging 63degs. or about +8degs. All that talk of cold air coming was hot air. We should be +7.4degs. by the 26th. Trying to stay at least +6.8degs to finish as warmest ever Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 18, 2017 Author Share Posted October 18, 2017 Warm run of 70's over the next week. Departures falling near normal to below normal during the last week of October. NEWARK KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 10/18/2017 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25 CLIMO X/N 71| 54 74| 53 73| 51 71| 53 73| 59 74| 61 71| 56 62 44 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 14 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Wow, that's an abrupt end to the growing season after such a warm start. I think the season will hold on here until at least November, which is quite typical anyway. 34 last night, hard frost. Next week you'll go below freezing in my opinion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 29 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Next week you'll go below freezing in my opinion! Possible. Only got down to 40 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 The 06z GFS was really wet with the storm for the early and middle part of next week with anywhere from 2.50"-4.00" of rain for most of the area, have to see if that continues in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 18, 2017 Author Share Posted October 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The 06z GFS was really wet with the storm for the early and middle part of next week with anywhere from 2.50"-4.00" of rain for most of the area, have to see if that continues in future runs. Euro was 2.00"-2.60" for the area. This may be our best chance for a widespread heavy rain event while the MJO is still really amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Euro was 2.00"-2.60" for the area. This may be our best chance for a widespread heavy rain event while the MJO is still really amplified. Amazing how the wet pattern flipped to dry. Remember how many soaking rains we had back in April and May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 2 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Possible. Only got down to 40 last night. 37 and 38 for the past two nights respectively here. Was hoping for first frost or 32F, but that looks like it will have to wait until next week. Average first 32F is October 18th here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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