qg_omega Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Big bust today forecast was sunny and low 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 What is the highest dew-point average on record for the month of October? I saw a comment that the entire east coast has seen much higher than normal dew-points contributing to the extreme overnight high minimums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2017 Author Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Big bust today forecast was sunny and low 80s Most guidance had upper 70's today and we maxed out in the mid-70's with just a few breaks of sun. Still not bad for mid-October. Have to allow for more clouds with such high humidity this time of year. This was the forecast from last night. LaGuardia Airport, NY DRZL PTCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY /77 58/63 46/61 51/70 55/72 58/73 58/74 /10 30/10 00/00 00/10 10/10 10/10 10/10 TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 75 113 PM 83 1956 66 9 66 MINIMUM 66 647 AM 39 2009 51 15 49 1939 AVERAGE 71 58 13 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Made it to 72 here today... am low of 64...Normal is 46. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: Be interesting to see if this is one of those Octobers when NYC doesn't drop below 40 degrees. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 10/15/2017 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 MON 16| TUE 17| WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22|MON CLIMO N/X 60 63| 44 59| 49 70| 56 71| 59 75| 63 76| 62 75| 62 47 62 I'd say it's a good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 This afternoon featured only limited sunshine and a gusty breeze. It was also unseasonably mild with readings in the lower 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Cool down not really looking spectacular. Notice how little uncertainty is inherent in forecast till the change near the 24th.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Models are a bit more aggressive on the late October cool down around the 25th. If this continues then NYC may drop below 40 right at the end of the month. However this is a 9-10 day forecast so a lot can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Models are a bit more aggressive on the late October cool down around the 25th. If this continues then NYC may drop below 40 right at the end of the month. However this is a 9-10 day forecast so a lot can change. At least this far out, the cold shot looks quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Models are a bit more aggressive on the late October cool down around the 25th. If this continues then NYC may drop below 40 right at the end of the month. However this is a 9-10 day forecast so a lot can change. That's our next shot at any real rain too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 remember when we used to get cold fronts in autumn with 1-2 inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 The wind kinda crazy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Thin squall line (let's see if it holds together for later tonight): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Very cheap midnight max, so tomorrow also gets to be AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 I went all the way up and back to the NEK yesterday and it was summer warm and a beautiful sunny day up there. Looks like that's changing in a big way The wind on I91 was pretty awesome. Got nearly 20mpg on the way up and about 13 coming home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Next 8 days averaging 62degs. or +6degs. We will be near +7.7degs. by the morning of the 24th for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2017 Author Share Posted October 16, 2017 Warm pattern continues this week after the brief taste of fall Tuesday into early Wednesday. It also dries out so the 70's next weekend may come with more sun than this past weekend. NEWARK KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 10/16/2017 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 MON 16| TUE 17| WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23 CLIMO X/N 63| 42 61| 47 70| 51 73| 53 76| 55 76| 58 75| 57 73 45 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 56, Dewpoint to 46 Fall is in the air for the next 48 - 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 56, Dewpoint to 46 Fall is in the air for the next 48 - 60 hours. The end of October looks quite cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Right now, the lows the next few mornings look like they may be cooler than anything at the end of the month. Especially in regard to the radiational cooling in the outlying areas. 10-25-26 might be cooler, but time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: The end of October looks quite cool looks transient with stronger/longer cold possible in Nov. 10/24 - 10/26-27 then warmer again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2017 Author Share Posted October 16, 2017 16 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 10-25-26 might be cooler, but time will tell. Still don't think we see any -10 or lower departures in NYC this month like we had at the beginning of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 This warmth seemed to come out of nowhere...who would have thought we'd have the warmest 30 days on tap and possibly the warmest October on record when we were freezing on 9/1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2017 Author Share Posted October 16, 2017 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: This warmth seemed to come out of nowhere...who would have thought we'd have the warmest 30 days on tap and possibly the warmest October on record when we were freezing on 9/1? More like the cooler temps in August into early September were a big outlier and October just returned back to the warmer base state that has been dominating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Down to 55 here. Low 40s tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: More like the cooler temps in August into early September were a big outlier and October just returned back to the warmer base state that has been dominating. Agreed. Extended record warmth can't surprise anyone anymore, whether signaled well in advance or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Gfs trending stronger with the cool-down although it looks transient as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Gfs trending stronger with the cool-down although it looks transient as of now. How transient? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Gfs trending stronger with the cool-down although it looks transient as of now. It doesn't just go away actually, there's more cold air from where that came from and we get a nice trough possibly a +PNA setup. All the people talking about how warm it's been...Since Thursday the temperatures went below freezing north of the arctic circle and yes it's been warm since than but not as bad as before that day, and now all of a sudden some may get below feeezing before the end of the month. Maybe even some flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 where's the big cool down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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