CIK62 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Well if the 850mb's are right, any day with a 10C or better is a candidate for 70 degrees. But the GFS has been playing ping-pong with the numbers, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 No change for the next 8 days---averaging 64degs., or about +7 or +8degs. Until you start adding in days after the 25th., the above will be the case. The GFS is not taking its' meds and overnight turned Nov. to BN! We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2017 Author Share Posted October 15, 2017 3rd warmest first two weeks of October on record and just a little ahead of the 2007 warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Steady drizzle here...humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The warm spots will make a run on 80 later when we get the breaks of sun. I'd rather have cold and dry than this. This is worse than mid summer heat cause our bodies are meant to go through a different phase through different seasons. 67 and cloudy with some drizzle humidity is high at 92%. Once the sun burns off these thin clouds and comes out the humidity levels will drop and tomorrow looks to be cold with a high of 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2017 Author Share Posted October 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I'd rather have cold and dry than this. This is worse than mid summer heat cause our bodies are meant to go through a different phase through different seasons. 67 and cloudy with some drizzle humidity is high at 92%. Once the sun burns off these thin clouds and comes out the humidity levels will drop and tomorrow looks to be cold with a high of 60. We will get a brief taste of fall Tuesday morning before the ridge and warmth builds again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: We will get a brief taste of fall Tuesday morning before the ridge and warmth builds again. Yes but the warmth you're speaking off isn't the warmth we've been getting. It will be in the mid 70's if that. But also drier with less humidity which is due able. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: 3rd warmest first two weeks of October on record and just a little ahead of the 2007 warmth. I remember 1990 pretty well- the first week of November, the foliage on the oaks were only starting to slowly change. I remember thinking how I could not believe the leaves were still green Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 22 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Yes but the warmth you're speaking off isn't the warmth we've been getting. It will be in the mid 70's if that. But also drier with less humidity which is due able. With lower insolation and shorter days it's impossible for temps to remain the same. However the departures from normal remain similar, as the averages are also decreasing everyday. I sense this concept is lost on you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 On 10/13/2017 at 11:58 AM, Isotherm said: Even though this month has furnaced, suburbia could pull off an average date first freeze with the cold surface high on Monday night. Typically, if we decouple with 850mb temperatures at or below 0c, that's sufficient for 32F readings outside of the urban zones. Hoping for maybe a 39 or so here...Just an incredibly mild boring fall so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2017 Author Share Posted October 15, 2017 31 minutes ago, Fantom X said: I remember 1990 pretty well- the first week of November, the foliage on the oaks were only starting to slowly change. I remember thinking how I could not believe the leaves were still green I believe we still had some gorgeous fall foliage left on the trees for Thanksgiving 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 48 minutes ago, bluewave said: We will get a brief taste of fall Tuesday morning before the ridge and warmth builds again. That warmth looks short lived on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 when I lived in Brooklyn in 1975 some trees still were green in early December...two weeks later winter arrived with arctic air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 24 minutes ago, psv88 said: With lower insolation and shorter days it's impossible for temps to remain the same. However the departures from normal remain similar, as the averages are also decreasing everyday. I sense this concept is lost on you... All I'm saying is the real warmth is gone it felt like fall even yesterday though it did feel warm at times. Today is an exceptionally humid day and that'll be the worst of it. I know what you mean about the averages but once it gets cold here it will be cold and it'll stick around. By October 27 or so it will get cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: All I'm saying is the real warmth is gone it felt like fall even yesterday though it did feel warm at times. Today is an exceptionally humid day and that'll be the worst of it. I know what you mean about the averages but once it gets cold here it will be cold and it'll stick around. By October 27 or so it will get cold! Ok man. In late may you said we were done for any thunderstorms for the rest of the summer and we clearly weren't. Please stop with these definitive calls or put them in banter where they belong. Back to reality, socked in here with fog and mist continuing the wet weekend theme lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: All I'm saying is the real warmth is gone it felt like fall even yesterday though it did feel warm at times. Today is an exceptionally humid day and that'll be the worst of it. I know what you mean about the averages but once it gets cold here it will be cold and it'll stick around. By October 27 or so it will get cold! But it was 9 degrees above normal and today will be more than that. Basically if you don't need a jacket in the morning by this point in October it's not fall like. This entire upcoming week will also end up well above normal even with 2 days in the 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2017 Author Share Posted October 15, 2017 2 hours ago, uncle W said: when I lived in Brooklyn in 1975 some trees still were green in early December...two weeks later winter arrived with arctic air... That's when we used to get actual Arctic outbreaks in December. We have seen quite a shift to warmer Decembers after the 70's and 80's. I can still remember that Christmas 1980 below zero Arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 6 hours ago, CIK62 said: No change for the next 8 days---averaging 64degs., or about +7 or +8degs. Until you start adding in days after the 25th., the above will be the case. The GFS is not taking its' meds and overnight turned Nov. to BN! We will see. If this "colder blast" is weak or doesn't come until later then we'll beat the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Another busted forecast. ..cloudy and dank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 13 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Another busted forecast. ..cloudy and dank Slowly clearing, but clouds in the way last few days. Weeks ahead looks mostly sunny and argues for temps exceeding guidance once to wed/thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Misting with 94% humidity, busted forecast for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 2 hours ago, psv88 said: Ok man. In late may you said we were done for any thunderstorms for the rest of the summer and we clearly weren't. Please stop with these definitive calls or put them in banter where they belong. Back to reality, socked in here with fog and mist continuing the wet weekend theme lately Central Park was looking like it was going to hit 80 today but not even 75 is reachable at this point. The warmest time of the day this time of the year is from 1-2pm. You got another half hour of warmth than it'll start cooling down. And as for thunderstorms I said there weren't going to be another round like that day where it was widespread from Atlantic City to Hudson valley. We had plenty of thunderstorms but that day that I mentioned was the worst of the summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2017 Author Share Posted October 15, 2017 4 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Yes but the warmth you're speaking off isn't the warmth we've been getting. It will be in the mid 70's if that. But also drier with less humidity which is due able. That's still double digit + warmth after the the 20th when the average split is 61/47. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2017 Author Share Posted October 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, psv88 said: Misting with 94% humidity, busted forecast for sure Breaks of sun now on the South Shore with a tropical feeling 65 dewpoint for mid-October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 4 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Yes but the warmth you're speaking off isn't the warmth we've been getting. It will be in the mid 70's if that. But also drier with less humidity which is due able. It's all relative to the time of year and if we had those departures in summer we'd be talking highs in the upper 90s/lows in the mid 70s. Getting 80s this late would shatter records and it's just not physically possible without extreme conditions. That being said I have no problem with the warm weather this week because luckily it's mid-late October not summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Still overcast, high of 73 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 53 minutes ago, bluewave said: Breaks of sun now on the South Shore with a tropical feeling 65 dewpoint for mid-October. Still cloudy and breezy in Bushwick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: That's when we used to get actual Arctic outbreaks in December. We have seen quite a shift to warmer Decembers after the 70's and 80's. I can still remember that Christmas 1980 below zero Arctic outbreak. we have not seen single digits in December in NYC since 1989...five times in the 1980's ...most for any decade...no other decade had three straight Decembers with single digit temps...89-88-87 were the three in a row...the 1970's had one in 1976...the 1960's had three...the 1950's had four... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Had about 10 min of sun...felt nice...pretty crappy weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2017 Author Share Posted October 15, 2017 40 minutes ago, uncle W said: we have not seen single digits in December in NYC since 1989...five times in the 1980's ...most for any decade...no other decade had three straight Decembers with single digit temps...89-88-87 were the three in a row...the 1970's had one in 1976...the 1960's had three...the 1950's had four... December has been becoming more like the 4 month of fall rather than the first month of winter. But it's good to know that we can still average 50 degrees like 2015 and get a record breaking blizzard in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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