donsutherland1 Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 53 minutes ago, CIK62 said: I remember blogging in late Sept. that the GFS had a +10degs. for the first 10 days of Oct. Didn't Oct. 1990 kick off with mostly temps. in the 80's. Could you post that data if I am correct. ( I may have wrong year). Between October 6-14 in 1990, 6 days had high temperatures of 80° or above in NYC. Also 13 of the first 15 days of October had high temperatures of 70° or above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 11, 2017 Author Share Posted October 11, 2017 New record for 80 degree days over the last month at LGA of 17. Only 5 less than the whole month of August this year.Also a new record for 70 degree or greater minimums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Dvorak has Ophelia at almost major hurricane intensity, yet NHC is going with ASCAT and unwilling to even call it a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Warmest first 10 days of October across the area since 2007. NYC....+9.3 LGA....+9.1 JFK.....+7.7 ISP.....+8.8 BDR...+8.5 EWR..+9.2 +8.2 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 6 hours ago, doncat said: +8.2 here. +11.1 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 14 hours ago, bluewave said: Warmest first 10 days of October across the area since 2007. NYC....+9.3 LGA....+9.1 JFK.....+7.7 ISP.....+8.8 BDR...+8.5 EWR..+9.2 The humidity has been making it feel a lot worse too. If it was dry it would be okay, but we've been getting stuck under mostly cloudy skies with warm temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 10/11: PHL: 79 ISP: 77 NYC: 77 JFK: 77 ACY: 77 EWR: 76 TEB: 76 LGA: 74 New Brunswick: 73 TTN: 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Why the next 8 days are becoming positively cold, average down to 62degs., but still a +4degs. In addition the first 40 degree morning may occur before the record date of the 20th. We will probably be down to +7degs. for the month by the20th.---still record territory. Using the colder looking last 10 days of month outlook, I think we will finish Oct. near +5degs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2017 Author Share Posted October 12, 2017 8 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: The humidity has been making it feel a lot worse too. If it was dry it would be okay, but we've been getting stuck under mostly cloudy skies with warm temps. Another run on 80 degrees coming for this weekend and potentially the following weekend also. So two more very impressive warm ups over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Endless torch continues! Enjoying the cooldown the next 2 days. About .25 of much needed rain here over night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another run on 80 degrees coming for this weekend and potentially the following weekend also. So two more very impressive warm ups over the next 10 days. Yep. Like I posted in banter, this cool down is just a blip in the torch pattern. And like you've said, normal temps feel like way below as we'll see on Monday and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2017 Author Share Posted October 12, 2017 31 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Yep. Like I posted in banter, this cool down is just a blip in the torch pattern. And like you've said, normal temps feel like way below as we'll see on Monday and Tuesday. Yeah, the departures coming up will continue to be very impressive for this time of year. The normal high/low for the 15th is 64/50 and 62/48 on the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 here's a cloud pattern you almost never see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Negative 850mb temps. on the way in by Halloween. Will probably prevent a record warm month from occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2017 Author Share Posted October 12, 2017 I believe the 67 degree SST's are near record levels for this time of year. AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY HARB ENTRANCE 2050 62 67 70/ 21/ 27 1026.0 8/ 8 20 S FIRE ISLAND 2050 60 66 70/ 23/ 27 1026.3 10/ 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 NE to SW clearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 All the ensembles have a cooldown at the end of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 50 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Next 8 days down to 61degs., a mere +3degs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 All week looked like a beautiful weekend. Now all of a sudden it looks like clouds and rain. Unreal. Impossible to get two nice weekend days lately. It's maddening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 According to 45-day EURO the dates to watch for cold are 10/26---30 [midwest goes first], 11/09---12, 11/19-21 a solid 20degs. BN, fliping to 10degs. AN by 11/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Current temp is 53 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2017 Author Share Posted October 13, 2017 Abnormally dry conditions expanded across the whole area on the latest drought monitor update. The record warmth and lack of any decent rains for most really dried things out over the last month. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 48 minutes ago, psv88 said: All week looked like a beautiful weekend. Now all of a sudden it looks like clouds and rain. Unreal. Impossible to get two nice weekend days lately. It's maddening at least here, it's a 20 to 30% chance of rain per Upton. Give the dryness, I doubt we see much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 The RGEM does have this for tomorrow-the CMC also has it but further south-no other model agrees with it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Do hurricanes coming toward the eastern US transport warm air masses with them? I've seen this written elsewhere as an excuse for the abnormally warm weather we've been having, but I don't understand how a couple of hurricanes can be responsible for the long term warmth we've had. I thought a hurricane's track was a product of the upper air pattern already in place, not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Sundog said: Do hurricanes coming toward the eastern US transport warm air masses with them? I've seen this written elsewhere as an excuse for the abnormally warm weather we've been having, but I don't understand how a couple of hurricanes can be responsible for the long term warmth we've had. I thought a hurricane's track was a product of the upper air pattern already in place, not the other way around. I think there's more to it than that. The pattern in place for most of the summer simply flipped. I'm sure the canes added some warmth, but that's usually transitory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The RGEM does have this for tomorrow-the CMC also has it but further south-no other model agrees with it though Doing the Epilepsy Walk in Eisenhower Park tomorrow morning. Better not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: Doing the Epilepsy Walk in Eisenhower Park tomorrow morning. Better not rain. 12z NAM is coming in with this feature (an IVT trough) further S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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