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October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave

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how did phl rise 5f in 5 minutes yesterday with light rain falling?

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KPHL&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

                  OK
19:35      86.0     71.6  75.6   62    5.8   19.6   SSW    29.97   29.98  Light Rain 10.00                       OK
19:30 80.6 71.6  74.1  74          29.97     29.98  Mostly Clear 10.00  

 

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4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

how did phl rise 5f in 5 minutes yesterday with light rain falling?

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KPHL&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

                  OK
19:35      86.0     71.6  75.6   62    5.8   19.6   SSW    29.97   29.98  Light Rain 10.00                       OK
19:30 80.6 71.6  74.1  74          29.97     29.98  Mostly Clear 10.00  

 

I believe they corrected the high to 81 degrees.

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We are about to complete a 30 day period at +8 degs. (9/13-10/12)    Since +7degs. seems to be the limit in the Sept./Oct. period, I have to assume if this period had a name it would go down as the warmest month ever at this time of the year.   96% of 30 day periods during a year of course have no name, and are not recorded as separate entities.

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27 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

We are about to complete a 30 day period at +8 degs. (9/13-10/12)    Since +7degs. seems to be the limit in the Sept./Oct. period, I have to assume if this period had a name it would go down as the warmest month ever at this time of the year.   96% of 30 day periods during a year of course have no name, and are not recorded as separate entities.

Incredible torch after such a cool finish to August and the start of September.   Bone dry too which of course has helped that 30 day +8 departure.

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October should end up averaging over 60.0 in NYC...the winters that followed are broken down by enso...oni...only three el nino years on the list...

years when October averaged 60.0 or higher...the 30 year normal winter ave temp is 35.5...So the average of these years is near the 30 year normals but milder than the long term...snowfall is near the 30 normals also...

Year....enso....snowfall....temp....

1900....la nina......9.1".....31.7

1908....neutral...20.3".....36.7

1920....la nina....18.6".....34.9...12.5" snowstorm in NYC late February...

1931....neutral.....5.3".....40.1

1941....neutral...11.3".....32.9...cold wave first half of January...

1946....neutral...30.6".....34.8...Blizzard in Late February

1947....neutral...63.2".....30.0...26" of snow late December...record snow cover...

1949....la nina....11.6".....37.5

1950....la nina....13.8".....35.9

1953....el nino....15.8".....37.4...8" snowstorm in January..

1954....la nina....11.5".....34.0

1961....neutral...18.1".....33.3...10" snowstorm in Newark and Boston on 12/24...

1963....el nino....44.7".....33.3...12.5" blizzard in January...

1968....el nino....30.2".....32.9...15.3" snowstorm in February

1971....la nina....22.9".....35.1...snowy February...

1973....la nina....23.5".....35.5...ice storm in December...

1984....la nina....24.1".....36.4...very cold January

1990....neutral...24.9".....39.2...9" snowstorm late February

1995....la nina....75.6".....32.3...snowiest of all time...

2007....la nina....11.9".....36.4

2013....neutral...57.4".....33.0...snowy February...

 

long term ave.....28.3".....33.5

of the 21 years 10 were below 20" for the season...11 were over 20"...two over 60"...six over 30"...

#".......#.. La.. Ne.. El snow...

60"+.. 2....1....1....0

40"+.. 2....1....0....1

30"+.. 2....0....1....1

20"+.. 5....3....2....0

10"+.. 8....5....2....1

01"+.. 2....1....1....0

...............................................

average for enso...

enso....#.....temp snow

la nina 10...35.1....22.3"

neutral 8....35.0....28.9"

el nino 3.....34.5....30.2"

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Loved the late August feel today, although the leaves starting to change and the earlier Sunsets do put a damper on the otherwise Summery appeal. After a brief cool down the next few days, we should be back near 80 by the weekend followed by another brief cool down and then wash, rinse, repeat. No meaningful rain for the foreseeable future either. Some areas might see a little rain tomorrow night but the otherwise stormy pattern advertised about a week ago has all but vanished. We cannot even deliver a meaningful rainstorm with tropical remnants riding a potent frontal boundary.

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