Powerball Posted September 30, 2017 Share Posted September 30, 2017 Definitely looking more and more likely this round of heat won't be nearly as extensive as initially thought. I'm sure Jonger is happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 30, 2017 Author Share Posted September 30, 2017 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, not as impressive/uninterrupted as it once looked. Wednesday could have sneaky warm potential in northern IL if the front slows down a bit... even by 6 hours. It should be a pretty warm start on Wednesday morning with winds staying up a bit overnight Tuesday. Although it's a second rate model, the 12z GGEM has a significantly slower frontal passage and suggests a very warm Wednesday around Chicago. After looking a bit more, I think there's a good chance Chicago stays AOA 70 on Tuesday night. Given the setup with winds likely staying elevated, MOS looks too cool and so does the 2m output (especially since they are underdoing the warmth on Tuesday) and even that stuff is suggesting upper 60s for lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 30, 2017 Author Share Posted September 30, 2017 6 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Indeed. I'd go with whatever they show due to the mentioned great performance. Here were the 03z runs valid 21z, vs. actual temps at 21z. Overall it appears to be a pretty good job today, at least from the 03z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2017 Author Share Posted October 1, 2017 I'll go 84 at ORD on Monday. I think areas out in far western IL could approach 90 on Monday. So, I will guess 88 at MLI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2017 Author Share Posted October 1, 2017 00z Euro came in significantly slower with the front. Better agreement on the timing now after the GFS had been doing a lot of shifting toward the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Surface moisture looks a little more robust than what was modeled several days ago. 90+ looks a bit questionable with a few degrees cooler temps aloft. 88 at MLI on Mon/Tue looks pretty good to me. I won't be shocked if 90 is made, but I'm not expecting it. Either way another impressive wave of warmth heading in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2017 Author Share Posted October 1, 2017 8 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Surface moisture looks a little more robust than what was modeled several days ago. 90+ looks a bit questionable with a few degrees cooler temps aloft. 88 at MLI on Mon/Tue looks pretty good to me. I won't be shocked if 90 is made, but I'm not expecting it. Either way another impressive wave of warmth heading in. I thought my MLI call was perhaps a little aggressive, but nice to see some backup lol. It is above practically all model output, but the guidance (whether statistical products or the raw output) always seems to underestimate these highly anomalous setups and what they can produce. Will have to watch if clouds are a bit more extensive than thought, but I'd be surprised if MLI came in below 85 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 I think upper 80s are becoming less likely now in the LOT CWA with respect to guidance trends over the past few days. Understand having to account for the very dry conditions but 925 mb temps have trended slightly cooler. ECMWF had been warmer on Tuesday but it came down to around 20 Celsius on 12z run today, with NAM and GFS around 18-19C. Also, models are suggesting broken cloud cover is possible on Tuesday. I'm wondering if that is overdone but nonetheless, with the slightly cooler thermal profiles, thinking mid 80s peak in LOT CWA now. Definitely not ruling out upper 80s considering how the heat wave went though. Will be interesting to see how tomorrow performs with a cooler start but lower dewpoints, similar 925 mb temps progged vs Tuesday though slightly cooler at 850 than progged for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2017 Author Share Posted October 1, 2017 I wish it were easier to find records for 500 mb heights by month. The expanse of this 594 dm ridge is pretty impressive and can't recall a similar one off the top of my head (in October). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 I wish it were easier to find records for 500 mb heights by month. The expanse of this 594 dm ridge is pretty impressive and can't recall a similar one off the top of my head (in October).The SPC sounding climatology page helps give a sense of it with the max 500 mb heights by RAOB site. Clicked onto ILX and it had an October max of mid 590s registered in mid October. I don't think there's a way to check the date that occurred on though. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2017 Author Share Posted October 1, 2017 24 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The SPC sounding climatology page helps give a sense of it with the max 500 mb heights by RAOB site. Clicked onto ILX and it had an October max of mid 590s registered in mid October. I don't think there's a way to check the date that occurred on though. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk I found it. I clicked on ILX and discovered the record October height is 594 dm on 00z October 13. Going through the upper air archives for each year on that date, it was 00z October 13, 2008. ILN and DTX also had similar heights then. There have been some October ridges of 590 dm or a little higher in these areas, but based on the RAOB archives going back several decades, it might be fair to say that the only other October ridge of 594+ this far north in the Midwest/Lakes is the one from 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I found it. I clicked on ILX and discovered the record October height is 594 dm on 00z October 13. Going through the upper air archives for each year on that date, it was 00z October 13, 2008. ILN and DTX also had similar heights then. There have been some October ridges of 590 dm or a little higher in these areas, but based on the RAOB archives going back several decades, it might be fair to say that the only other October ridge of 594+ this far north in the Midwest/Lakes is the one from 2008. Looks like it hit 84 at ORD that day, and 83 at MLI. 85 at SPI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 Looks like the HRRRx has 86-87 for MLI tomorrow based on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 2, 2017 Author Share Posted October 2, 2017 52 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like the HRRRx has 86-87 for MLI tomorrow based on the 18z run. 925 mb temps around 23C out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 RAP/HRRR look like a high near 80 for ORD tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 2, 2017 Author Share Posted October 2, 2017 4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: RAP/HRRR look like a high near 80 for ORD tomorrow. There looks like some kind of weird shallow mixing/cloud issue on there through the morning hours. Wondering if that actually occurs. Would of course impact highs to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 2, 2017 Author Share Posted October 2, 2017 ORD is actually running a degree ahead of MLI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 2, 2017 Author Share Posted October 2, 2017 On 9/30/2017 at 8:58 PM, Hoosier said: I'll go 84 at ORD on Monday. I think areas out in far western IL could approach 90 on Monday. So, I will guess 88 at MLI. I think I'm going to bust at MLI. Temps really struggling there...going to take a big rally. I do think ORD could still get to 83-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 2, 2017 Author Share Posted October 2, 2017 MLI rising rapidly and now past ORD, 82 to 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 2, 2017 Author Share Posted October 2, 2017 Impressive 9 degree rise at MLI from noon to 2 pm. My original call there might not be that big of a bust after all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Impressive 9 degree rise at MLI from noon to 2 pm. My original call there might not be that big of a bust after all lol Yeah not too bad considering more clouds than expected. Made it to 85 here and 86 at MLI. Heard some cicadas earlier. Can't remember hearing them in October before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 2, 2017 Author Share Posted October 2, 2017 Made it to 83 at ORD and MDW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 Topped out at 83 at ORD and MDW today.Might end up being the warmest day of the period, with increased cloud and precip chances in the area tomorrow...and then the front passes tomorrow night/Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 2, 2017 Author Share Posted October 2, 2017 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Topped out at 83 at ORD and MDW today. Might end up being the warmest day of the period, with increased cloud and precip chances in the area tomorrow...and then the front passes tomorrow night/Wednesday morning. I have a hard time seeing tomorrow come in cooler, though clouds do add some uncertainty on max temps. Here's an interesting question. Will it be a midnight high or daytime high on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 I have a hard time seeing tomorrow come in cooler, though clouds do add some uncertainty on max temps. Here's an interesting question. Will it be a midnight high or daytime high on Wednesday?I'm thinking the same or cooler for tomorrow, unless things significantly change. As for Wednesday, probably depends on precip chances. But I can see a midnight high in the 70's. Maybe another post front peak in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 2, 2017 Author Share Posted October 2, 2017 Iowa City at 88 and Springfield, IL 87 a couple of the warmer spots today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 HRRR/RAP showing widespread clouds and precip, with temps holding in the 70's tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 3, 2017 Author Share Posted October 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: HRRR/RAP showing widespread clouds and precip, with temps holding in the 70's tomorrow. It will be hard to pull that off with many areas likely starting in the mid/upper 60s. Not impossible but even minimal sun should allow for 80+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 The 5940 m height contour at 500mb is likely to happen in N Indiana, N Ohio, N Pennsylvania in 36 hours. Note that the average 500mb height for this area in mid-July is 5850 m, and 5820 m in Pennsylvania. So, 5940 m is not just a bit of an upper level ridge, but it is 90 m above normal for the hot days of summer. Along with that, the 850mb temperatures might be about 14-15 C in the evening and nighttime tomorrow, which may be near normal for mid-July. The average 500mb height for October 3rd is 5730 m, so 5940 m would be 210 m above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 3, 2017 Author Share Posted October 3, 2017 Clouds do look like more of an issue around the LOT cwa than yesterday. I've actually had a decent amount of sun so far (and temps have risen to upper 70s) but that will probably be changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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