cyclone77 Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 Yeah I always considered front/back loaded was in reference to snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I just think some patience is needed. The longer range looks to have multiple troughs dumping into the west, which should get things going at least for parts of the Plains/Midwest. That would open the door to tracks that could keep a lot of us on the warmer side, but the hope would be for a gradual step down over time. I see a lot of people on the east coast getting excited about the upcoming pattern, but I say get in line and wait your turn lol This would be the only way things could be bad for this region, if we get jumped and the east coast gets stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 15 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah I always considered front/back loaded was in reference to snowfall. I guess I would too... within reason. I'd have trouble calling a winter back loaded if Jan/Feb were a furnace with snows that melted quickly. Back loaded seems like a lean toward climo anyway. I mean, without checking, I'm guessing that most of us average more snow in Jan and Feb than Dec. Certainly doesn't always play out like that though. Like last winter, which I would consider to be front loaded (or maybe bookend in my case since I had a big LES in March). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 37 minutes ago, Stebo said: I always see back loaded as talking about snowfall. So that would be a perfect example. I agree with this assessment. Edit: Hoosier is also probably right in that what is considered “backloaded” might more accurately be considered “climo” when looking at normal temps and precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 WSW heck even WWA have been hard to come by the last few years. We did have a Blizzard Warning I believe 2/20/16 which ended up being 3” of wet slop and minimal wind. Does look like a change in the current pattern around the second week of December, until then Zzzzzz and above normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 Does the Euro still have a bias toward burying upper lows in the sw US? The GFS is trying to bring the western energy into the central US around December 6th, but the euro wants to pinch it off and park it over SoCal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: Does the Euro still have a bias toward burying upper lows in the sw US? The GFS is trying to bring the western energy into the central US around December 6th, but the euro wants to pinch it off and park it over SoCal. Yes it does, it is due to over amplification of the troughs/lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 Mount Agung is getting a little more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 27 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Mount Agung is getting a little more interesting. I'll go with 8 inches of ash for Beaskih, 10 inches for Amlapura, and only 3 inches for Kubu due to NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 2 hours ago, IWXwx said: I'll go with 8 inches of ash for Beaskih, 10 inches for Amlapura, and only 3 inches for Kubu due to NW flow. How much for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Mount Agung is getting a little more interesting. Will probably lead to a cold spring and summer (and possibly fall) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Max/min at Denver today was 81/47, a departure of +31. The max of 81 is an all-time November high...and it occurred on the 27th of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Max/min at Denver today was 81/47, a departure of +31. The max of 81 is an all-time November high...and it occurred on the 27th of the month. That's impressive. The latest 80 degree temp to occur in the calendar year had been November 16, and that was just last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 I really like the free Euro maps. For anyone who doesn't have the links, here they are for the ECMWF and EPS. You can zoom in at state level too, which is nice. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 12 hours ago, Hoosier said: I really like the free Euro maps. For anyone who doesn't have the links, here they are for the ECMWF and EPS. You can zoom in at state level too, which is nice. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps.php Thank you for the links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Tomorrow night is the 11th anniversary of one of my favorite snowstorms. This was an incredibly difficult forecast for DVN, as there was a very sharp drop-off in amounts on the northwest side of the deformation band. Model run to run differences meant the difference between nothing, or a warning criteria event. Finally by that night it became clear that the snow would back far enough northwest to impact us pretty significantly as the storm deepened over eastern IL. That last minute deepening of the surface low is what shoved the band northwestward enough to get us into that heavy snow. It seemed to take forever to get here, but the snow finally backed in from the southeast just before midnight. It went from nothing to moderate snowfall in a very short time, and the winds quickly picked up as well with the arrival of the snow. Snowed quite intensely for about 9hrs, and then very quickly shut off. You only had to drive 15-20 miles west of the QC and you were completely out of the snow. Radar loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Tomorrow night is the 11th anniversary of one of my favorite snowstorms. This was an incredibly difficult forecast for DVN, as there was a very sharp drop-off in amounts on the northwest side of the deformation band. Model run to run differences meant the difference between nothing, or a warning criteria event. Finally by that night it became clear that the snow would back far enough northwest to impact us pretty significantly as the storm deepened over eastern IL. That last minute deepening of the surface low is what shoved the band northwestward enough to get us into that heavy snow. It seemed to take forever to get here, but the snow finally backed in from the southeast just before midnight. It went from nothing to moderate snowfall in a very short time, and the winds quickly picked up as well with the arrival of the snow. Snowed quite intensely for about 9hrs, and then very quickly shut off. You only had to drive 15-20 miles west of the QC and you were completely out of the snow. Radar loop That one was a real pain in the neck for me. Ended up significantly more northwest than it appeared about 60-72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That one was a real pain in the neck for me. Ended up significantly more northwest than it appeared about 60-72 hours out. Quite a northerly movement to it. I would have been biting my finger nails. I didn't live here then, but it looks like this area got some of the heaviest in Michigan. Around 10 inches. Did you get any ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 20 minutes ago, blackrock said: Quite a northerly movement to it. I would have been biting my finger nails. I didn't live here then, but it looks like this area got some of the heaviest in Michigan. Around 10 inches. Did you get any ice? I actually chased this one (one of the few synoptic storms I've chased) because I was so ticked lol. Ended up west of Chicago where they got hit pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I actually chased this one (one of the few synoptic storms I've chased) because I was so ticked lol. Ended up west of Chicago where they got hit pretty good. The NAM put out some insane precip forecasts in that deform zone from MO to IL. I used to have a few model forecast images saved on an old PC. Think it was like 3-4" of precip at one point. Princeton IL did end up reporting 18" IIRC. The snow that fell here was fairly dense, probably around 10:1 LSR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 It would be heartbreaking to see winter start off like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 hours ago, KokomoWX said: It would be heartbreaking to see winter start off like this... This is why I want the trough west and why I don't want to hear about frozen ground posts. I want snowy grounds, I don't want the east coast getting stuff at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 46 minutes ago, Stebo said: This is why I want the trough west and why I don't want to hear about frozen ground posts. I want snowy grounds, I don't want the east coast getting stuff at all. Take your 2" on that map and be grateful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: Take your 2" on that map and be grateful. Boo this man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 I knew it had been some time, but ILN tweeted that it's been 661 days since they've issued a Winter Storm Warning for their CWA. 661 days ago is February 9, 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, osubrett2 said: I knew it had been some time, but ILN tweeted that it's been 661 days since they've issued a Winter Storm Warning for their CWA. 661 days ago is February 9, 2016. And the map as backup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, osubrett2 said: And the map as backup... That's crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Wow interesting map, although you must take into consideration that a Winter Storm Warning has different criteria based on the area. I bet some of the southern states it doesn't take much more than a couple inches of snow or a few tenths of inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: That's why these snowfall maps are useless. How many times has it shown your backyard getting buried and ultimately you don't see a flake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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