2017-2018 Fall/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

[Hoosier]

36 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Remember that day vividly. Those are some bad memories... and of course was followed by one of the most atrocious springs I can remember.

C'mon, that is some elite cold.  You will rarely see temps like that in the middle of the day.  

[cyclone77]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I wish I had an 18z map from 1/20/1985. I'm not sure if another day can match that one for daytime temps.  Maybe 1/1/1864 but most places in the Midwest don't have weather records back that far.

Made this map using data from Weather Underground.  Used only ASOS sites, as most AWOS aren't on record that far back on that site.  I labeled the map as 18z, but the sites in the eastern zone are actually 17z obs, as I forgot to adjust while compiling the data lol.  All sites are 12pm local time.  Also, the winds are in mph not knots.

[Stebo]

9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Made this map using data from Weather Underground.  Used only ASOS sites, as most AWOS aren't on record that far back on that site.  I labeled the map as 18z, but the sites in the eastern zone are actually 17z obs, as I forgot to adjust while compiling the data lol.  All sites are 12pm local time.  Also, the winds are in mph not knots.

Thank god for Lake Michigan.

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Made this map using data from Weather Underground.  Used only ASOS sites, as most AWOS aren't on record that far back on that site.  I labeled the map as 18z, but the sites in the eastern zone are actually 17z obs, as I forgot to adjust while compiling the data lol.  All sites are 12pm local time.  Also, the winds are in mph not knots.

Sweet, thanks.

[IWXwx]

Thanks for making that map Cyclone.

I remember that day vividly. I had a 1980 Jeep CJ-7 with a rag top. I tried to wipe the frost off of the plastic windows and they instantly cracked. It did start though! Drove 20 miles home from work and froze my butt off.

[cyclone77]

Here's a wind chill map from 1/20/85.  All readings are actually 18z this time, and these readings are from the "old scale".  

[beavis1729]

Another good one was January 10, 1982...especially across the Northern Plains. 

January 1982 was an incredibly cold month.  Here are some daily max/min's at MSP...several potent arctic shots:

1/6/82:  -1/-14

1/7/82:  5/-20

1/8/82:  14/-10

1/9/82:  -10/-23

1/10/82:  0/-26

 

1/16/82:  -16/-23

1/17/82:  8/-23

 

1/24/82:  -7/-21

1/25/82:  3/-14

[RogueWaves]

On 11/19/2017 at 3:12 PM, Hoosier said:

You know what will happen now. Big outbreak in Michigan in 2018.

Nah, we're the place where PDS watches go to die. Prolly the same pattern you've noted that had strong HP's plunging into the GL's and brought ORD much earlier 1st freeze dates, also brought better tornado action. Idk, just a shirt sleeve theory, no science behind it. While not F4/5 strength, the years up til '84 were also active with the F3 in Kzoo ('80) and a memorable outbreak while I was at my first real job in Genesee Cnty circa Aug '84. Had 1 or 2 vehicles flipped over about a mile from my work place and about 7 twisters that afternoon. 

[RogueWaves]

On 11/19/2017 at 9:54 PM, Stebo said:

Thank god for Lake Michigan.

Was my sentiments exactly! SMI was bad enough, but back then I had no idea it was even worse around the region

[CheeselandSkies]

On 11/17/2017 at 10:41 PM, Hoosier said:

There have been some ridiculous differences between MI and IL/IN in recent years, especially IL.  How about 2006 with 123 tornadoes in IL and 10 in MI.  I mean Michigan averages less of course but it's gone to an extreme lately.

WI also has a weird disconnect in tornado activity with its neighboring states. Outbreaks that hit MN/IA/IL usually don't affect us much, except for the occasional path that continues a few miles across the border.

You have to go back to Palm Sunday 1965 for the last outbreak that really nailed the whole upper Midwest/Lakes region.

[hlcater]

12 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

WI also has a weird disconnect in tornado activity with its neighboring states. Outbreaks that hit MN/IA/IL usually don't affect us much, except for the occasional path that continues a few miles across the border.

You have to go back to Palm Sunday 1965 for the last outbreak that really nailed the whole upper Midwest/Lakes region.

Except  the north woods, which was on fire this year and had like 3 or 4 long track tors.

[Stebo]

3 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Except  the north woods, which was on fire this year and had like 3 or 4 long track tors.

That part of the state does well often. Marathon County just guessing, is probably near the top for tornadoes in any county in the state.

[CheeselandSkies]

...which is weird, since you'd think they'd take longer to get the warmth/juice up there in the spring. It's frustrating watching severe/tornado activity skip from IL to northern WI every year. Terrain up there is utterly unchaseable.

[cyclone77]

It was a fairly active tornado season for the DVN cwa.  35 naders for the year.  Luckily they were mostly very weak brief ones.

[Hoosier]

This is random but I was thinking about what it would be like if the Gulf of Mexico didn't exist and it were just all land.  I doubt the average Joe in the Midwest thinks it has much of an impact, but it would really alter the weather/climate of the region.  Less severe weather, less precip, etc.  

[IWXwx]

Off of the top of my head, I feel that would be tundra-like in the winter and desert-like in the summer.

Btw, that is pretty random. lol

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

Off of the top of my head, I feel that would be tundra-like in the winter and desert-like in the summer.

Btw, that is pretty random. lol

Yeah and we probably wouldn't have as vast of Great Lakes either.

[hlcater]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

This is random but I was thinking about what it would be like if the Gulf of Mexico didn't exist and it were just all land.  I doubt the average Joe in the Midwest thinks it has much of an impact, but it would really alter the weather/climate of the region.  Less severe weather, less precip, etc.  

I look at the Alborz Mtns in Iran as an example. I've thought about this before(multiple times, I'm a geography dork), and have come to the conclusion that this is the best example because the Caspian(gulf for us) would be the most direct source of moisture for that area and the mountains create one of the biggest rain shadows in the world(effectively removing the effects of the Caspian). With their only moisture really coming from the already fairly dry Mediterranean. This would relate to the Pacific accounting for how a lot of that moisture would be lost in the Rockies and would never be replenished. Like IWX said, I assume we would have extremely cold winters and extremely hot summers in a pretty arid environment similar to Iran(4-10" annually.) 

 

[Hoosier]

Don't see 949 modeled at that latitude very often

[Jonger]

Thankfully that time period of replaced by a trough and wintery weather.

We are finally seeing hints of change.

[IWXwx]

A hint is all it is.

After that sharp trough/storm on the 5-6th, we do get some colder air coming in, but it depicts a progressive zonal flow with nothing but a couple of high-belted clippers after that. I want to see multiple GFSish fantasy range storms.

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

A hint is all it is.

After that sharp trough/storm on the 5-6th, we do get some colder air coming in, but it depicts a progressive zonal flow with nothing but a couple of high-belted clippers after that. I want to see multiple GFSish fantasy range storms.

 

I don't care about fantasy storms so much as the long term pattern. And everything I've read sounds good moving forward.

Besides it has been a colder than normal November anyway. It's not as if we are stuck in some winterless pattern we can't dislodge.

[IWXwx]

18 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Winter Cancel.

Lol. I hope that wasn't directed at me. I'm not canceling winter, I've just been on the back-loaded winter train all along and that may turn out to be the correct forecast.

[IWXwx]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

I don't care about fantasy storms so much as the long term pattern. And everything I've read sounds good moving forward.

Besides it has been a colder than normal November anyway. It's not as if we are stuck in some winterless pattern we can't dislodge.

The thing I like about seeing fantasy storms on the extended GFS is that it is an indication of an active period. Right now it's showing seasonal cold, but nothing much to go with it. I don't root for a particular fantasy storm, but as you said, the long term pattern and the models spitting out a few lol'ers is usually a good indication that something might be brewing.

[michsnowfreak]

9 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

The thing I like about seeing fantasy storms on the extended GFS is that it is an indication of an active period. Right now it's showing seasonal cold, but nothing much to go with it. I don't root for a particular fantasy storm, but as you said, the long term pattern and the models spitting out a few lol'ers is usually a good indication that something might be brewing.

It has snowed here are 9 different days but yet nothing measurable yet this year this season. That's strange and also annoying, but at the same time November is always a crapshoot. I'll take the pattern we are in and moving forward any day over the one that was in place in November 2015, when we got a 5-15" snowstorm in Southeast Michigan. Im getting anxious because i want a winter wonderland, but not worried. 

[TugHillMatt]

41 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I don't care about fantasy storms so much as the long term pattern. And everything I've read sounds good moving forward.

Besides it has been a colder than normal November anyway. It's not as if we are stuck in some winterless pattern we can't dislodge.

I think it is a bit of anxiety after the past 2 winters, where we kept hoping and thinking things would get better...and it just didn't happen.

[weatherbo]

Seems like “typical” La Niña and El Niño patterns don’t exist anymore

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Lol. I hope that wasn't directed at me. I'm not canceling winter, I've just been on the back-loaded winter train all along and that may turn out to be the correct forecast.

What is back loaded anyway?  Is it primarily based on how much snow falls?  Say December comes in colder than average with not much snow, but January/February are snowier than December but warmer than average (just throwing out an example). How would that be classified? 

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

What is back loaded anyway?  Is it primarily based on how much snow falls?  Say December comes in colder than average with not much snow, but January/February are snowier than December but warmer than average (just throwing out an example). How would that be classified? 

I always see back loaded as talking about snowfall. So that would be a perfect example.

[Hoosier]

I just think some patience is needed.  The longer range looks to have multiple troughs dumping into the west, which should get things going at least for parts of the Plains/Midwest.  That would open the door to tracks that could keep a lot of us on the warmer side, but the hope would be for a gradual step down over time.  I see a lot of people on the east coast getting excited about the upcoming pattern, but I say get in line and wait your turn lol