josh_4184 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah it really is a surprise. Back in the late 90s, early 2000s I thought the city was a lost cause. The turnaround has been incredible. Today is also the anniversary of the big LES storm from 3 years ago. Nice vid! I remember that outbreak very well, I had about 36" in a few days was rood raking before Thanksgiving, then got hit again the following week but not as bad. Thought that winter was going to be epic then we went into the freezer and never came out. Lakes froze and it was game over for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 For those interested, the Capital Weather Gang has an article in yesterday's Washington Post concerning Cohen's Siberian October Snow Correlation or whatever it's called. Also a couple of interesting thoughts in the comments section if you're one to peruse those. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/11/16/snow-in-siberia-presents-mixed-signals-about-the-winter-outlook-in-eastern-u-s/?tid=sm_tw&utm_term=.d8670abe62bf#comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 16 hours ago, Stebo said: Aren't you in South Bend, your average high is 48... It is rapidly dropping and we are going into winter... It just seems hard to believe we can’t even get a day into the 50s now when it was in the 90s late September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 53 minutes ago, cmillzz said: It just seems hard to believe we can’t even get a day into the 50s now when it was in the 90s late September. Which was significantly above normal and an anomalous event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 I didn't know where else to put this, but talk about a historically quiet period for tornadoes in Michigan: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 2 hours ago, cmillzz said: It just seems hard to believe we can’t even get a day into the 50s now when it was in the 90s late September. We are in a very progressive pattern...meaning not much time or space for big warm-ups or cool downs. If the pattern slowed down a bit, you would have more opportunities for bigger systems that pull warm air up in front, and cold air down on the backside. So, in reality, there haven't been many extremes in the temp. department, other than leaning on the colder side of average. The warmth of September and October was harder to believe than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 3 hours ago, Stebo said: I didn't know where else to put this, but talk about a historically quiet period for tornadoes in Michigan: Wow that's crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 4 hours ago, cmillzz said: It just seems hard to believe we can’t even get a day into the 50s now when it was in the 90s late September. 53F is highest so far in Nov at GR. If they can stay that low, they will tie 1907 as the coldest Nov Max!. Data goes to 1893 there. It's been cold no doubt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Wow that's crazy And notice the other low twister years. Look familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 The breakdown of tornado warnings for MI this year. 3 for DTX 2 for IWX 1 for GRR/APX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: And notice the other low twister years. Look familiar? Looks like a mix to me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: Looks like a mix to me lol On tablet. But if u circled the bottom right you would capture a bunch of analog seasons for this coming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 4 hours ago, Stebo said: I didn't know where else to put this, but talk about a historically quiet period for tornadoes in Michigan: The actual number of tornadoes is also 7. Very quiet year for Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: The actual number of tornadoes is also 7. Very quiet year for Michigan. Yeah another down year after like 5 in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 4 hours ago, Stebo said: I didn't know where else to put this, but talk about a historically quiet period for tornadoes in Michigan: Where do you get data like this at? It's quite weird because Upstate New York had one of its busiest tornado seasons in quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah another down year after like 5 in a row. There have been some ridiculous differences between MI and IL/IN in recent years, especially IL. How about 2006 with 123 tornadoes in IL and 10 in MI. I mean Michigan averages less of course but it's gone to an extreme lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: There have been some ridiculous differences between MI and IL/IN in recent years, especially IL. How about 2006 with 123 tornadoes in IL and 10 in MI. I mean Michigan averages less of course but it's gone to an extreme lately. The other shoe will drop at some point, history before 1978 says it should. Look at the period from from 1950 to 1977 for violent tornadoes in MI. Then you also have 2 major events in 1896 and 1920 in the state as well. I know the rating now is much firmer than then but, there hasn't been anything in comparison even with that taken into account since 1977. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, Stebo said: The other shoe will drop at some point, history before 1978 says it should. Look at the period from from 1950 to 1977 for violent tornadoes in MI. Then you also have 2 major events in 1896 and 1920 in the state as well. I know the rating now is much firmer than then but, there hasn't been anything in comparison even with that taken into account since 1977. No doubt. The era prior to 1950 suggests it as well. I've posted this before but here's a map of F4-F5 tornadoes I put together a while back (based on data from Tom Grazulis' book). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: No doubt. The era prior to 1950 suggests it as well. I've posted this before but here's a map of F4-F5 tornadoes I put together a while back (based on data from Tom Grazulis' book). 695 was the tri state tornado? That's the longest tornado track I've ever seen seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 695 was the tri state tornado? That's the longest tornado track I've ever seen seen. Yep. There's been some research in the past few years that has questioned whether it was actually quite that long, but even that research still had it with an enormous continuous segment. We'll never know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 48 minutes ago, Hoosier said: No doubt. The era prior to 1950 suggests it as well. I've posted this before but here's a map of F4-F5 tornadoes I put together a while back (based on data from Tom Grazulis' book). Add to this map from 1950 to 1977 16 F4 and 2 more F5 in MI, none since. It just defies logic how this state has avoided tragedy with a tornado outbreak with high end tornadoes. The closest we came was when near Toledo was in June of 2010, still ended up with an EF2 near Dundee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 13 minutes ago, Stebo said: Add to this map from 1950 to 1977 16 F4 and 2 more F5 in MI, none since. It just defies logic how this state has avoided tragedy with a tornado outbreak with high end tornadoes. The closest we came was when near Toledo was in June of 2010, still ended up with an EF2 near Dundee. Even Wyoming has Michigan beat in F4-F5 since 1978... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Even Wyoming has Michigan beat in F4-F5 since 1978... Same with MA/NY/CT. We are by far the largest state east of the Rockies besides Florida that isn't had one. The biggest shock on that map though is Colorado, though the Windsor tornado in 2008 would have fit if it had hit anything but it was mostly over rural areas, thankfully because that was a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 On 11/18/2017 at 2:08 AM, Hoosier said: Even Wyoming has Michigan beat in F4-F5 since 1978... #puremichigan..#safeplace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 2 hours ago, RogueWaves said: #puremichigan..#safeplace You know what will happen now. Big outbreak in Michigan in 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 It is interesting to see how much the Great Lakes interfere with strong tornado development. An exception to that was in April of 1956, when there were F3 to F5 tornadoes across West Michigan. Hudsonville was hit by an F5, and had the strongest winds on earth for the year of 1956! Impressive! http://woodtv.com/blog/2015/04/02/april-3-1956-hudsonvillestandale-tornado/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Hey cmillz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 I wish I had an 18z map from 1/20/1985. I'm not sure if another day can match that one for daytime temps. Maybe 1/1/1864 but most places in the Midwest don't have weather records back that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Hey cmillz Remember that day vividly. Those are some bad memories... and of course was followed by one of the most atrocious springs I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Ahhhh...I may be one of the few people that miss that winter. NEVER tire of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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