2017-2018 Fall/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

[mimillman]

Only saving grace for Chicago this winter was that one week in February where we got some decent snow. Other than that, absolutely horrendous. One of the worst winters I’ve encountered in my 25 years.

Granted, I’m spoiled having grown up on the east coast  

[snowstormcanuck]

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

This WAS a lame Winter in much of NE. That. Is. Their. Climate. I mean they go through weeks and weeks of nothing in between these storms. Usually New England does good, but the East Coast has a lot more lame time then fun time in a typical Winter.

 

 The 2nd sentence is completely wrong. What was once the snowy Great Lakes has now become the snowless Great Lakes?   in more areas than not.  I say "seems to be" because I don't have a literal analysis of the entire region, but it's already been documented that lake effect snow is on the rise. And I CAN confirm that snowfall is most definitely on the increase in Detroit, Flint, Ann Arbor, Grand Rapids and, last few years aside, Chicago.  One of the most interesting studies for me would be to have true winter weenies move to the East Coast that they are so jealous of whenever they actually get a storm. I would love to see how they would handle an ENTIRE winter. Meaning including the weeks and weeks of nothing while watching snow systems frequent the Lakes.

You say Snowstorms is completely wrong, and then in the next sentence you concede you don't have any hard evidence to back you up.

And neither do I. But as a hunch, I'd say in the GL region as a whole, over the last 30 years, outside of the LE belts (and your SE MI snow bubble), average snowfalls have been decreasing slightly. If I ever have the free time I'll do the research to see if I'm right or not. 

[Central Illinois]

Only saving grace for Chicago this winter was that one week in February where we got some decent snow. Other than that, absolutely horrendous. One of the worst winters I’ve encountered in my 25 years.
Granted, I’m spoiled having grown up on the east coast  

Still better than what we had down here biggest snowfall was 3.5” what a joke! last Winter Storm Watch/Warning was over 2 years ago


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[KokomoWX]

10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I'm longing for warmth.  

 

Agreed.

I laughed then cried when I see there is a mid-Atlantic snowstorm possibly in the cards next week.  Sheesh...

[buckeye]

So I'm bored and procrastinating today so I thought I'd go over to the MA sub and see how many pages of long range discussion threads they've had this winter.   

Not including individual storm threads, they have over 600 pages of winter long range discussion/analysis.

DC has had about 5" of snow for the season.      

 God lov'em

[michsnowfreak]

18 hours ago, mimillman said:

Only saving grace for Chicago this winter was that one week in February where we got some decent snow. Other than that, absolutely horrendous. One of the worst winters I’ve encountered in my 25 years.

Granted, I’m spoiled having grown up on the east coast  

What an odd winter for Chicago. It actually seemed more like east coast-esque...boring...then boom in early Feb. Where did you grow up?

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

So I'm bored and procrastinating today so I thought I'd go over to the MA sub and see how many pages of long range discussion threads they've had this winter.   

Not including individual storm threads, they have over 600 pages of winter long range discussion/analysis.

DC has had about 5" of snow for the season.      

 God lov'em

LMAO that is crazy, but its always been that way in those forums.

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

You say Snowstorms is completely wrong, and then in the next sentence you concede you don't have any hard evidence to back you up.

And neither do I. But as a hunch, I'd say in the GL region as a whole, over the last 30 years, outside of the LE belts (and your SE MI snow bubble), average snowfalls have been decreasing slightly. If I ever have the free time I'll do the research to see if I'm right or not. 

All of southern MI is increasing, not just SE MI, as is Chicago. And of course the Lake Belts. Toronto for whatever reason is decreasing. But how would we honestly do a regionwide analysis? Is that even possible? I mean other than looking at every first-order climate sites data. (so I guess it is possible LOL).

 

Im pretty confident it is increasing a little, not decreasing a little, in the Great Lakes. Entire Midwest, I don't know. But the key words are "a little". The big picture is not from snowy to snowless OR from snowless to snowy.

[RCNYILWX]

Only saving grace for Chicago this winter was that one week in February where we got some decent snow. Other than that, absolutely horrendous. One of the worst winters I’ve encountered in my 25 years.
Granted, I’m spoiled having grown up on the east coast  

2011-12, 2015-16, 2016-17 say hi. I completely disagree with your assessment. December and January were definitely frustrating but we also had some near misses and a long stretch of snow cover from Christmas until mid January. Then the 9 day February stretch and the "surprise" system on the 17th adding up to tie for 10th snowiest Feb on record.

If you like wintry appeal but also large swings in weather, that's what this winter had here. The winters above were utterly lacking in any winter weather for long stretches and IMO much worse than this winter. Obviously, had the February stretch not happened, then totally different story, but it did and we got to above normal snowfall for met winter after only 10" through January (which is impressive) and temps finished near normal.

From the other POV, what if we had not had a near miss from the mid-late December clippers and not had a near miss from the higher totals in Feb 3-5 systems? The fact that we had those opportunities but missed or had a near miss of highest snow swath and still have had 30.7" to date at ORD indicates an active winter that could've been better if not for bad luck, which we can't control and is what makes seasonal snowfall so volatile.

For those in ILX and IND CWAs that had very low snow totals, I totally get the complaints about this winter, but up here, it was okay, not great, but not terrible by any means.

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[TugHillMatt]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

All of southern MI is increasing, not just SE MI, as is Chicago. And of course the Lake Belts. Toronto for whatever reason is decreasing. But how would we honestly do a regionwide analysis? Is that even possible? I mean other than looking at every first-order climate sites data. (so I guess it is possible LOL).

 

Im pretty confident it is increasing a little, not decreasing a little, in the Great Lakes. Entire Midwest, I don't know. But the key words are "a little". The big picture is not from snowy to snowless OR from snowless to snowy.

Disagree. It varies throughout the Great Lakes region. There have been two distinct "Screw zones" on the region as far as winter storms. Iowa to Southern Wisconsin to here in Central Lower Michigan. Then, Indiana up through Ohio and a sharp curve up to Southern Ontario. That is a big chunk of lower-than-average totals.

This area's average has gone up if you compare it to the earlier 1900s (BUT they measured differently then). The West Michigan lake effect snow belt has certainly not had an increase in average snowfall during this century. This is especially true north of Holland up to Ludington. I think you may be looking at this in a narrow lens...as Southern Michigan along the I-94 corridor has had amazing winters this decade. I think most would agree that much of the Great Lakes region has not had such luck.

[Hoosier]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

All of southern MI is increasing, not just SE MI, as is Chicago. And of course the Lake Belts. Toronto for whatever reason is decreasing. But how would we honestly do a regionwide analysis? Is that even possible? I mean other than looking at every first-order climate sites data. (so I guess it is possible LOL).

 

Im pretty confident it is increasing a little, not decreasing a little, in the Great Lakes. Entire Midwest, I don't know. But the key words are "a little". The big picture is not from snowy to snowless OR from snowless to snowy.

Chicago's average snow actually went down a little from 1981-2010 compared to 1971-2000, mainly because those historically snowy winters in the late 70s dropped out.  Chicago did have a nice stretch from 2007-2015 (interrupted with a couple clunkers), but obviously only part of that made it into the 1981-2010 average. 

[mimillman]

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

What an odd winter for Chicago. It actually seemed more like east coast-esque...boring...then boom in early Feb. Where did you grow up?

Northern NJ

[mimillman]

7 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

2011-12, 2015-16, 2016-17 say hi. I completely disagree with your assessment. December and January were definitely frustrating but we also had some near misses and a long stretch of snow cover from Christmas until mid January. Then the 9 day February stretch and the "surprise" system on the 17th adding up to tie for 10th snowiest Feb on record.

If you like wintry appeal but also large swings in weather, that's what this winter had here. The winters above were utterly lacking in any winter weather for long stretches and IMO much worse than this winter. Obviously, had the February stretch not happened, then totally different story, but it did and we got to above normal snowfall for met winter after only 10" through January (which is impressive) and temps finished near normal.

From the other POV, what if we had not had a near miss from the mid-late December clippers and not had a near miss from the higher totals in Feb 3-5 systems? The fact that we had those opportunities but missed or had a near miss of highest snow swath and still have had 30.7" to date at ORD indicates an active winter that could've been better if not for bad luck, which we can't control and is what makes seasonal snowfall so volatile.

For those in ILX and IND CWAs that had very low snow totals, I totally get the complaints about this winter, but up here, it was okay, not great, but not terrible by any means.

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ORD really recorded 30.7" this season? Perhaps a dumb question, but do you have a series of when these occurred, with comps to MDW? I just don't recall us getting that much this winter, particularly in the loopy heat island.

True, there have been several terrible winters recently. I wasn't actually here last winter, but do remember 2015-2016 being abysmal as well. We did have a period of time with snow on the ground between Christmas and early Jan, but if I recall that was mostly from one storm on Christmas Eve that was ~3"...it was just so cold that nothing melted.

The stretch in February was epic, but that was really the only thing that set us apart from the Indy crew. And that melted promptly the following week.

[Snowstorms]

On 3/7/2018 at 6:57 PM, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Just read through all of these comments now. While I disagree with snowstorms that this winter has been a bust (it was perhaps the best run-up to Christmas we've had in a few years) I do agree that there has been a subtle change in the climate of Toronto over the past few decades. While I do accept that the climate is changing and that humans may be contributing somewhat, I tend to believe that this has more to do with natural cycles. There was rapid climate change in the 17th century, and, according the book Early American Winters" by David Ludlum, there was a string of very warm winters in the upper Midwest in the 1820s. 

 

Regardless, it has become increasingly clear that Toronto's climate is much more temperate today than it was up until about the turn of the millennium. Snowy winters are increasingly rare, while snowfall in the American Mid-Atlantic and northeast states seems to have increased substantially since about 2002-2003. Like Canuck, I don't see it getting better anytime soon for snow lovers. Whether it is the impact humans have had the regional topography, or perhaps the urban heat island effect, snow is becoming increasingly rare in the Greater Toronto Area.

 

On another topic, have you guys seen that Facebook group called "Ontario blizzard watch"? They constantly hype up snowstorms (they are far worse than Joe Bastardi who, let's face it, has been right about his call for stormy conditions in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast) actually calling for Toronto to receive 5-10 cm (2-4") of snow by Friday, and 4-6" in places like Kingston! Total bust!!

Practically 10 days into the month and YYZ has only record 0.05" of precip. Just a god awful winter. Since February 14th - now, YYZ has only record 2 sub freezing days and they were both barely below freezing and only 0.47" of snow in the same timeframe. Now let's narrow this down a bit more. The first 10 days of December were extremely warm, 14/31 days were above freezing in January (two days above 50F), 16/18 days in February were above freezing (warmest second half of February on record) and now 8/9 days in March above freezing. Realistically, winter barely lasted two months, lol. You can knock 10" off the 36" YYZ has recorded this winter thanks to LES enhancement. That's only ~25" of pure synoptic snow from November - present. Remind me again how this winter isn't a bust. It's been terrible man! 

I kind of did a mini analysis and found DTW and ORD average anywhere from 2-5" less snowfall than YYZ per season. As Canuck mentioned earlier, we been averaging around 40" which is more closer to what those two have been averaging. Perhaps there's been a change in how EC measures snowfall now vs. in the past? But we can't certainly deny the fact that 4 out of the top 5 least snowiest winters on record have all occurred since 2006, lol. Could be attributed to bad luck or bad timing? However, 2006-07 and 2011-12 were just plain warm and garbage. 

Let's see how the next couple fair because it would be great to get some snowy winters now, lol. I've had enough of these mediocre bs winters. 

[Hoosier]

14 hours ago, mimillman said:

ORD really recorded 30.7" this season? Perhaps a dumb question, but do you have a series of when these occurred, with comps to MDW? I just don't recall us getting that much this winter, particularly in the loopy heat island.

True, there have been several terrible winters recently. I wasn't actually here last winter, but do remember 2015-2016 being abysmal as well. We did have a period of time with snow on the ground between Christmas and early Jan, but if I recall that was mostly from one storm on Christmas Eve that was ~3"...it was just so cold that nothing melted.

The stretch in February was epic, but that was really the only thing that set us apart from the Indy crew. And that melted promptly the following week.

Midway (as taken by the COOP observer) is actually running a few inches ahead of ORD.  I can also say that I have received about 35"

I think a possible reason for why it seems like less is that unless you're recording everything, it's easy to forget the 0.8", 1.4", 0.3", etc. amounts that occur numerous times through the winter and that adds up over time.

[IWXwx]

53 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Midway (as taken by the COOP observer) is actually running a few inches ahead of ORD.  I can also say that I have received about 35"

I think a possible reason for why it seems like less is that unless you're recording everything, it's easy to forget the 0.8", 1.4", 0.3", etc. amounts that occur numerous times through the winter and that adds up over time.

Yep, I've had 5.9" and 4.3" snows this year, with the rest of my 26" being 2.7" or less. Nickles and dimes add up, but that's climo around here.

[beavis1729]

Have to agree with mimillman on this...I don't know how anyone could objectively say that ORD had an ok winter.  Sure, it was a bit better than 2011-12, 2015-16, and 2016-17...but the bar is literally so low for those winters, that it's laughable.  I guess you could say this winter was an F or F+, instead of an F-...but still.

We essentially had 3 weeks of winter this season:  the last week of Dec and first week of Jan, then a 7-day stretch in early Feb.  Met winter is 13 weeks long...so we had winter for 3 weeks out of 13.  Not good.

And, as mentioned, even those 3 weeks were relatively tame by "deep winter" standards...as the late Dec/early Jan cold wave underperformed due to meager snow fall, low snow cover here & upstream, and UHI...and the 7-day stretch in Feb was tainted since the snow melted so fast (IMBY, we received 18" of snow over 9 days, peaked at a 14" depth, then it was all gone 3 days later).

One way to measure winter is by the # of wintry days, defined as a day with high temp 32 or lower AND 2+" of snow on the ground.  By that metric, ORD only had 16 days in DJF (out of 90) that qualify as "winter"!! Funny - that is even worse than I thought.  If that is an ok winter, then our standards are really low.  

To each his own, of course...but I am constantly amazed how low many people's standards are...especially for those who love winter. 

[GreenBo]

35 car pileup on i94 earlier. Whiteout conditions created a skating rink. 

[hlcater]

Seems like there’s always pileups on I94. Someone at the state level needs to investigate that.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Seems like there’s always pileups on I94. Someone at the state level needs to investigate that.

Freeway is too narrow, only 2 lanes on each side while being the main line from Chicago to here.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

8 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Practically 10 days into the month and YYZ has only record 0.05" of precip. Just a god awful winter. Since February 14th - now, YYZ has only record 2 sub freezing days and they were both barely below freezing and only 0.47" of snow in the same timeframe. Now let's narrow this down a bit more. The first 10 days of December were extremely warm, 14/31 days were above freezing in January (two days above 50F), 16/18 days in February were above freezing (warmest second half of February on record) and now 8/9 days in March above freezing. Realistically, winter barely lasted two months, lol. You can knock 10" off the 36" YYZ has recorded this winter thanks to LES enhancement. That's only ~25" of pure synoptic snow from November - present. Remind me again how this winter isn't a bust. It's been terrible man! 

I kind of did a mini analysis and found DTW and ORD average anywhere from 2-5" less snowfall than YYZ per season. As Canuck mentioned earlier, we been averaging around 40" which is more closer to what those two have been averaging. Perhaps there's been a change in how EC measures snowfall now vs. in the past? But we can't certainly deny the fact that 4 out of the top 5 least snowiest winters on record have all occurred since 2006, lol. Could be attributed to bad luck or bad timing? However, 2006-07 and 2011-12 were just plain warm and garbage. 

Let's see how the next couple fair because it would be great to get some snowy winters now, lol. I've had enough of these mediocre bs winters. 

Have you gone back to check what the winters were like in the 30s, 40s and 50s? According to a book I have called "The Vermont Weather Book" by David Ludlum, the 1880s were very cold in Vermont, followed by a significant warming trend in the 1890s, then a cooling trend, followed by another significant warming trend after 1926, which lasted through the 1950s. The 1960s, 70s, through to the mid 80s then saw another cooling trend before warming began in the late 80s. Would be interesting to know if similar trends were observed in Toronto - data exists back to 1840.

[michsnowfreak]

13 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Have you gone back to check what the winters were like in the 30s, 40s and 50s? According to a book I have called "The Vermont Weather Book" by David Ludlum, the 1880s were very cold in Vermont, followed by a significant warming trend in the 1890s, then a cooling trend, followed by another significant warming trend after 1926, which lasted through the 1950s. The 1960s, 70s, through to the mid 80s then saw another cooling trend before warming began in the late 80s. Would be interesting to know if similar trends were observed in Toronto - data exists back to 1840.

1930s to 1950s winters were terrible for snow in detroit, with rock bottom being 1940s. Easily the worst stretch in our climate history. The 1940s averaged 27.6" of snow. For comparison the 20th century average was 40.0". And the average the last 11 years has been 55". Actually the 1960s were blah too but had decent snowcover, we just missed most of the big storms. If you break it down in chunks...we averaged mid-40s from 1880-1929 and 1970-present but low 30s 1930-1969. And also, while slight observer error is always possible then and now, looking at everything from hourly precip data, snow depth data, surrounding station data, newspaper stories etc...I see no reason to not trust those awful mid-20th century numbers which would be a joke by today's standards.

[Snowstorms]

Oh look, another Nor'easter and east coast blizzard. What's new? Give me a break already, this is just ridiculous. 

This is the third Nina since 2011 that's failed to deliver and in-fact has looked far from being a typical Nina. Climatology would favour our region over the east coast in Nina's and yet they continue to do better than us whether it be neutral ENSO, Nina or Nino. Preposterous! I wonder if this is some caveat of climate change or just a phase, lol but it's getting quite stupendous. And there's the possibility we may see a Nino next winter. Might as well write next winter off too with the way the last few Nino's have been across our region. I think its time mother nature flips the scripts and gives us the storm track now for the next decade. 

Only 0.63" of snow at YYZ since February 11th. I wonder if that's some new record for the least amount of snow recorded during one of our snowiest time-frames. Downright horrible. 

Edit: And no Spring in sight thanks to the block.

 

[snowstormcanuck]

4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Oh look, another Nor'easter and east coast blizzard. What's new? Give me a break already, this is just ridiculous. 

This is the third Nina since 2011 that's failed to deliver and in-fact has looked far from being a typical Nina. Climatology would favour our region over the east coast in Nina's and yet they continue to do better than us whether it be neutral ENSO, Nina or Nino. Preposterous! I wonder if this is some caveat of climate change or just a phase, lol but it's getting quite stupendous. And there's the possibility we may see a Nino next winter. Might as well write next winter off too with the way the last few Nino's have been across our region. I think its time mother nature flips the scripts and gives us the storm track now for the next decade. 

Only 0.63" of snow at YYZ since February 11th, I wonder if that's some new record for the least amount of snow recorded during one of our snowiest time-frames. Downright horrible. 

 

That number's going up. Already got an inch here and the heaviest returns are just spinning over YYZ. Go take a drive to your SW. It's loveliness out there right now.

[Snowstorms]

1 minute ago, snowstormcanuck said:

That number's going up. Already got an inch here and the heaviest returns are just spinning over YYZ. Go take a drive to your SW. It's loveliness out there right now.

You're right. Radar does look half decent over YYZ and in Etobicoke. 

Do you think YYZ can make 40" this season? 

[snowstormcanuck]

9 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

You're right. Radar does look half decent over YYZ and in Etobicoke. 

Do you think YYZ can make 40" this season? 

Sure. It's possible. I'd love it if it could happen tonight.

[Snowstorms]

9 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Sure. It's possible. I'd love it if it could happen tonight.

Haha, not happening tonight. No way YYZ get's ~3.0" tonight. 

Need the block to weaken around March 20th and we could have a chance at a storm as the s/w comes on shore near California. The PNA should go negative around the same time so hopefully it can "overpower" the block and favour a more western track. Regardless, my optimism remains low. 

[Stebo]

I have a complaint, can we get rid of this useless -NAO. **** keeping the last gasp of winter any longer than it needs to be.

[Chambana]

36 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I have a complaint, can we get rid of this useless -NAO. **** keeping the last gasp of winter any longer than it needs to be.

This. Imagine being in Europe right now. Pure hell. Our pattern isn’t much better, BN temps to continue for the 3-5 days. 

[zinski1990]

4 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

 

 

4 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Oh look, another Nor'easter and east coast blizzard. What's new? Give me a break already, this is just ridiculous. 

This is the third Nina since 2011 that's failed to deliver and in-fact has looked far from being a typical Nina. Climatology would favour our region over the east coast in Nina's and yet they continue to do better than us whether it be neutral ENSO, Nina or Nino. Preposterous! I wonder if this is some caveat of climate change or just a phase, lol but it's getting quite stupendous. And there's the possibility we may see a Nino next winter. Might as well write next winter off too with the way the last few Nino's have been across our region. I think its time mother nature flips the scripts and gives us the storm track now for the next decade. 

Only 0.63" of snow at YYZ since February 11th. I wonder if that's some new record for the least amount of snow recorded during one of our snowiest time-frames. Downright horrible. 

Edit: And no Spring in sight thanks to the block.

 

Yep sucks. Why is it they always have everything work out for them? Like it can be modeled a week out and always pan out yet we have something always go wrong for us last minute? It should be our turn tired of them getting monster storms every year and they still complain somehow. Let's see what they've accomplished in the past 10 years. Snowmagedons of Feb 2010, snowacane late feb 2010, jan 11, oct 2011, nemo feb 13, jan 15 juno, feb 2015 snowstorm parades, jonas jan 2016, and this years march noreasters. What have we all seen in that time? Maybe 3-4 good storms with ghd being the biggest. I understand the NE is in a better spot for big storms but come on this is insane